英格兰银行货币政策委员会成员凯瑟琳曼（Catherine Mann）在近期一次重要公开发言中指出，美国对华加征关税正迫使北京提高对其他市场包括英国的出口价格。她认为，这将使英国的进口通胀风险持续存在。她的表述，明显将中国而非美国视为威胁英国经济稳定的来源，与许多央行官员及分析师的看法相左。后者更倾向认为，北京在关税战期间仍为包括英国在内的全球市场提供具竞争力且价格可负担的商品。
凯瑟琳曼亦未提及英国长期以来对中国采取的各种经济施压措施。英国首相斯塔默在最近访华时曾形容两国关系陷入“冰河时代”，而他的到访就是要扭转这一局面。斯塔默或许也私下期待，若能重置英中经济政策与关系，将有助于降低英国进口中国商品的价格。
凯瑟琳曼的观点延续了对中国所谓“产能过剩”以及“抬高价格”的负面叙事。这一论调在反华政治人物与政策圈中广为流传，他们对来自中国的任何进口商品都抱持警惕与怀疑。长期以来，西方主流媒体亦试图淡化甚至拒绝承认一个事实：过去二十多年，中国对全球的出口一直是全球经济中最有效、也许是最强大的抗通胀力量之一。
在本世纪的大部分时间里，中国实质上充当了全球的“去通胀引擎”。透过以持续低价出口大量消费品，中国协助西方央行维持低通胀环境。
同样地，这种出口效应对发展中国家的通胀目标亦产生正面影响。不可否认，中国制造品出口大幅提升了全球生活水平——透过压低消费品价格、提升家庭实质收入、改善技术与基础设施的可及性。
中国价格与中国速度
2001年中国加入世界贸易组织，可谓引发全球贸易格局的板块性变动。“中国价格”成为多数制成品的全球最低价格标杆。凭借大规模生产、低成本劳动力与完善的制造生态系统，中国成为“世界工厂”，向全球输出“去通胀效应”，提升消费者购买力。
中国制造如何提升全球生活水平：
压低全球消费品价格：大量低价中国商品（家电、电子产品、服装等）持续对全球价格形成下行压力。据估算，若2022至2023年间澳洲家庭无法取得中国进口商品，其相同商品成本将上升4.2%。这种“中国价格效应”等同为全球家庭消费提供补贴，使数以亿计人口能负担更多商品与服务。
提供可负担的科技与绿能产品：中国在太阳能板、锂电池与电动车生产领域的主导地位，透过降低可再生能源技术成本，加速了全球绿色转型进程。凭借中国的规模化制造，风能与太阳能在许多地区已成为最便宜、甚至唯一可负担的能源选项。
提升发展中国家的商品可及性：透过“一带一路”倡议，中国向发展中经济体提供可负担的机械设备、电子零部件与基建相关产品，协助其更快推进工业化。南方国家的发展亦为已开发国家带来外溢效应。然而，这一积极面向往往在西方主流媒体报导中被忽略或无视。
提高实质收入：透过降低生活成本，中国商品实质上提高了消费者的购买力，尤其是低收入家庭与发展中国家中产阶层的生活水平。
驱动全球价值链：中国是全球供应链的关键节点，为他国尤其西方制造商提供低成本中间品，从而压低生产成本。如今随著部分中间品价格上升，西方政策制定者的反华言论反而更加高调。
背景因素
通胀吸纳器：在全球通胀压力高企之际，中国有时充当“通胀吸纳器”，即进口昂贵原材料，加工后以较小涨幅出口成品。
劳动套利：多年来，农村劳动力持续流入城市，压低工资水平，使中国得以向贸易伙伴输出通缩压力。反华媒体与游说团体，包括日本、印度与菲律宾，常以新疆、香港、西藏等议题质疑中国经济成就，藉“代价为何”的论述贬低中国发展模式。
供应链整合效率：中国不仅提供廉价劳动力，更构建全球最完整的产业链整合体系。在同一地区完成零部件、生产、包装与成品制造，大幅降低物流成本与交货时间。比亚迪、电商平台Shein与Temu等品牌以“中国速度”成为市场领导者，却在西方和其亚洲跟随者的宣传叙事中成为“公敌”。
技术追赶：自动化与机器人技术的迅速应用，使中国在工资上升背景下仍维持价格竞争力，中国“廉价劳动力”已不便宜。
为年轻世代改写绿色转型格局
中国经济崛起带来的最大红利或许尚未完全显现。中国正成为全球绿色转型的新一轮去通胀来源。中国在太阳能板、电动车电池与风力发电设备的规模化生产，正在压低全球可再生能源成本，为未来十年乃至更长时间提供新的抗通胀动力。
透过维持电动车、太阳能板与电池等关键产品的低价，中国协助东南亚、拉丁美洲、非洲与中东等地区，以远低于原本可能承担的成本实现绿色转型。
如果英国、欧盟与美国的政治人物与政策制定者能放下意识形态成见，他们同样可以在包括绿色产业在内的中国出口体系中获益。
林德宜《中国助力全球对冲特朗普关税战的通胀冲击》原文：China Helps World Fight Trump's Tariff War Inflationary Impact
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann in a recent lead communication has noted that U.S. tariffs on China are forcing Beijing to raise export prices for other markets, including Britain. This, she argued, was keeping U.K. import inflation risks alive. Her statement, clearly directed at China rather than the U.S. as the threat to British economic stability, is contrary to the opinion of many central bankers and analysts who view Beijing's export impact more favorably. This is because China is providing, even during this tariff war period, competitive and affordable prices to a wide array of goods around the world, including the U.K.
Mann, unsurprisingly, also made no mention of the fact that the U.K. has been engaged in various forms of economic coercion of China, producing what British prime minister Keith Starmer has described in his recent visit to Beijing as “an ice age” era that he is intent on reversing. Starmer is probably privately hoping that a reset of British economic policy and relations with China may provide for lowered prices of Chinese imports into Britain.
What Mann has expressed continues the negative spinning of what has been decried as China's over capacity - and now increased pricing allegation - narrative popular with anti China politicians and policymakers who view imports of any kind from China with alarm and suspicion. They, and western mainstream media, have long sought to conceal and refuse to acknowledge that China's exports to the world have acted as an effective - perhaps the most potent - anti inflationary factor in global economics for the last 20 years or more.
For the better part of this century, China has essentially acted as the world’s disinflationary engine. By exporting massive volumes of consumer goods at consistently low prices, China has helped central banks in the West keep inflation low.
The same positive China export impact on national inflation targets has been true for the developing economies. The undeniable fact is that Chinese manufactured goods exports have significantly contributed to raising global standards of living by bringing down the cost of consumer goods, boosting real household incomes, and enhancing access to technology and infrastructure.
China Pricing and China Speed
China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 can be said to have triggered a tectonic shift in global trade. The "China Price" became the lowest price point in the world for most manufactured goods. By leveraging large-scale production, low-cost labor, and a strong manufacturing ecosystem, China acted as a global factory that exported disinflation and increased purchasing power for consumers worldwide.
This is how Chinese manufactured exports have contributed to higher living standards around the world:
Reduction in Global Consumer Prices: The massive supply of low-cost Chinese consumer goods (household appliances, electronics, clothing) has consistently put downward pressure on prices for everything from toasters to handphones. For instance, it has been estimated that without access to Chinese imports, Australian households would have paid 4.2% more for the same basket of goods in 2022-2023. This "China price effect" acts as a subsidy on global household consumption, allowing hundreds of millions to afford more goods and services.
Access to Affordable Technology and Green Energy: China's dominance in producing solar panels, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles has accelerated the global green transition by making renewable energy technologies cheaper. Wind and solar technology have become the cheapest, and often only affordable energy option, in many parts of the world due to Chinese manufacturing scale.
Increased Access to Goods in Developing Nations: Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has provided affordable machinery, electronic components, and infrastructure-related goods to developing economies. This has enabled developing nations to industrialize faster. Developed nations have benefitted from the ripple effects of South countries' development. However, this positive development continues to be missing or neglected in the reporting by Western mainstream media.
Boosting Real Incomes: By reducing the cost of living, Chinese goods have effectively raised the real income—or purchasing power—of consumers, particularly in lower-income households and developing countries, enabling higher standards of living for the poor and middle class.
Driving Global Value Chains: China is a critical node in global supply chains, providing low-cost intermediate goods that allow manufacturers in other countries especially in the West to keep production costs down. Now that China is providing higher cost intermediate goods, western policy makers have become more strident in their anti China discourse.
Contextual Factors:
Absorber of Inflation: Amidst global inflationary pressures, China has sometimes functioned as an absorber of inflation by importing expensive raw materials, processing them, and exporting finished goods at a smaller price increase.
Labor Arbitrage: For years, a steady stream of rural labor into cities has kept wages low. This has allowed China to export deflationary pressure to its trading partners. Anti-China media and lobby groups, including in Japan, India and Philippines, often focus on stories of exploitation of China's cheap labour in Xinjiang, Hong Kong,Tibet, etc. in their “at what cost" questioning campaign to denigrate Chinese economic performance and achievement.
Efficiency through Supply Chain Integration: China did not just offer cheap labor; it offered the world's most integrated infrastructure. By producing components, packaging, and finished goods in the same locality, China reduced logistics costs and lead times. Brands such as BYD, Shein and Temu have become market leaders for their “China speed”. To Western propagandists and their followers in Asia, they have become public enemies.
Technological Catch-up: Rapid adoption of automation and robotics is allowing China to maintain competitive pricing even as domestic wages continue to rise, and China's “cheap” labour has become more costly.
Green Game Changer For The Younger Generation
The most important of the benefits which China's economic rise is bringing to the world is yet to come. China is now the primary source of deflation for the “green transition”. China’s production in solar panels, EV batteries, and wind turbines is driving down the cost of renewable energy globally—acting as a new anti-inflationary force for the next decade and beyond.
By keeping prices low on essential goods—especially electric vehicles , solar panels, and batteries—China is helping other regions (Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East for now) transition to green energy at a much lower cost than they could otherwise afford.
Britain, the European Union and the U.S. can also benefit from China's export production, including green, if their politicians and policy makers can remove their ideological blinkers and anti China mindset.
本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。
公共政策分析学者
