依据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所（SIPRI）研究，在2020–2024年期间，乌克兰成为全球最大主要武器进口国，其武器进口量较2015–2019年暴增近100倍。
在乌克兰总统泽连斯基与法国总统马克龙签署军购意向书后，媒体引用泽连斯基的说法，称此协议将为乌克兰提供“世界最强的防空系统之一”，以抵御俄罗斯的空袭并确保长期安全。
根据协议，乌克兰将获得高达100架法国“阵风”（Rafale）F4战机，以及先进防空系统。一架新型达索“阵风”战机的售价通常介于2.25亿至2.85亿欧元／约10亿至13亿令吉之间，取决于武器配套、训练与支援内容。光是战机，就意味著约220至280亿欧元／1051至1338亿令吉的惊人金额。这还不包括其他待采购但尚未确定预算的军事装备，如防空系统、先进空对空飞弹、精准导引炸弹、雷达系统与无人机等；其中拦截型无人机的生产预计于2025年底开始。
法国在这次军购中脱颖而出，使人们重新注意到一个重要但报导较少、细节更稀缺的面向：在乌克兰战争中，除了战况本身与援助金额之外，欧盟内部及英国等武器出口国之间，为了军援与军购合约所展开的商业竞争也甚为激烈。即使战争以目前的形式下结束，这场军购争夺战和重建带来的经济和金融利益的竞争也将愈演愈烈。
根据现有资料，欧盟整体已向乌克兰提供逾600亿美元／2479亿令吉的军事援助与相关合约。德国常被视为欧盟中最大的个别贡献国。然而，若聚焦于武器销售与军购合约——也就是哪些国家的国防工业从中获得实际“生意”——情况其实更加复杂与动态。
一项不容忽视的背景是：外界普遍认为乌克兰的军购系统充斥回扣与腐败，不论在国内或国际合作层面皆然。截至2025年3月的一项民调显示，超过91%的乌克兰民众认为腐败是“相当”或“非常普遍”的。然而，这不但没有吓退武器出售国，反而似乎成为刺激因素。
欧洲主要军工竞争者
德国一直是欧洲内对乌克兰军事援助的最大捐助国之一，其援助总额通常位居全球第二，仅次于美国。其提供的援助包括“豹2”坦克与IRIS-T防空系统等高价设备。德国军工企业如莱茵金属（Rheinmetall）也成功取得大量弹药、车辆与其他装备的合约，成为战争中的主要产业得利者。
法国则在2020–2024年成为全球第二大武器出口国，对欧洲其他国家的出口激增。此次与乌克兰的意向书虽非即时军售，但象征著法国军工产业（如达索航空）未来潜在合约，并将成为乌克兰未来军事航空采购的重大转变。
瑞典也与乌克兰签署类似的长期意向书，预计供应高达150架“狮鹫”Gripen E 战机，并在未来几年陆续交付。此外瑞典还提供大量军援，包括装甲车、火炮、防空系统，以及对多个基金的财务支持。
波兰则常被列为乌克兰的第三大武器供应国（仅次于美国与德国），向乌克兰输出大量主要常规武器。
乌克兰重建最大赢家
在欧洲领袖公开敦促泽连斯基拒绝任何“不让俄罗斯明确受挫”的和平方案的同时，幕后真正激烈的是军工产业与利益团体之间的博弈——谁能抢下战后重建与军备的巨额合约，进而壮大自身经济与游说力量。随著俄军在顿巴斯战线加强攻势、泽连斯基为避免更大失利而积极寻求欧洲增援，这场竞争更加白热化。
然而，最大的赢家不太可能来自那些在军火和工业复合体中投入巨资的欧盟成员国，甚至也不是整个欧盟，而是美国。美国自2022年2月以来已向乌克兰提供约665亿美元／2747亿令吉军事援助，其目标不仅是主导和平结局，也要在未来的重建与重整武装力量中“回收”自身的战争投入。
这可从提交给乌克兰的28点和平解决方案草案中清楚地看出，该草案本质上是美国强加给乌克兰及其欧盟支持者的。整个方案的结构——特别是对俄罗斯冻结资产的控制、美国在战后重建中的经济利益、美国主导的安全对话，以及由特朗普领导的“和平委员会”监督方案实施的关键地位和权力——似乎都是为了确立美国在塑造战后欧洲秩序和获取战略及经济机遇方面的主导地位，而这可能会损害欧盟在欧洲大陆安全方面的努力、影响力和作用。
对此，欧洲军事与产业界批评者只能寄望最终和平协议至少能分配部分合约给他们，以免美国在欧洲的军事与经济霸权继续毫无制衡地扩张。
此时的泽连斯基面临的最大挑战已不在前线，而在政治层面：要么接受美俄和平方案，要么面临作为一个从战争中获取巨大利益、却腐败丛生的政权领袖的更大风险。特朗普已给他下了最后期限，而泽连斯基恐怕难以回避。
自战争爆发以来，在乌克兰上空盘旋的秃鹫，既有来自境内，也有来自境外。
林德宜《俄乌停战 秃鹫在头顶盘旋》原文：Ukraine War End: Vultures Fly Overhead
Media headlines of the Ukrainian President Voledmyr Zelensky, after he signed a military procurement letter of intent with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, quoted him describing the deal as providing Ukraine with "one of the greatest air defense systems in the world" to defend against Russian air attacks and ensure long-term security.
According to the agreement, Ukraine will receive up to 100 of France's Rafale F4 fighter jets as well as advanced air defence systems. The estimated sales value of a new Dassault Rafale fighter jet typically ranges from Euro $225 million to Euro $285 million per aircraft, depending on the specific contract which includes weapons packages, training, and support. This would make the deal worth an eye watering Euro $22 to $28 billion alone. Other military hardware to be procured but not yet to be cost include air defense systems, advanced air-to-air missiles and guided bombs, radar systems and drones, with production of interceptor drones planned to begin in late 2025.
The French success in this procurement exercise brings to closer attention a very important, but often under reported and less detailed, aspect of the war. While much reporting on Ukraine focuses on the war itself and the aid packages to support the country, the commercial competition and industrial winners within its supporters in the European Union (EU) and other armament exporters such as the United Kingdom for military aid and procurement contracts are significant. This competition for the economic and financial benefits of war and reconstruction will intensify even as the war, in its current form, is ending.
According to available data, the European Union collectively has provided over US$60 billion in military aid and contracts to Ukraine. Germany has frequently been cited as the largest individual EU country contributor. However, when looking specifically at arms sales and procurement contracts which indicate which country's defense industry is "winning" in terms of new business, the picture is more complex and dynamic. An added feature is the perception that Ukrainian military procurement is riddled with kickbacks and corruption is widespread, both internally among Ukrainians and externally among international partners and observers. As recently as March 2025, surveys indicated that over 91% of the Ukrainian population believed corruption is "somewhat" or "very widespread.” This has not discouraged sellers of armaments to Ukraine. Instead it appears to have encouraged them.
European Key Armament Players
Germany has consistently been one of the largest single European donors of military aid to Ukraine, often ranking second globally after the United States in terms of total allocated aid. This includes high-value equipment like the Leopard 2 tanks and IRIS-T air defense systems. German companies, such as the arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, have secured major contracts for producing and supplying ammunition, vehicles, and other equipment, making the country a significant industrial winner.
France has become the world's second-largest arms exporter overall (in a recent period from 2020–2024), and its exports to other European states have surged. While the letter of intent does not represent immediate sales, it proposes potential contracts for the French defense industry (Dassault Aviation, etc.) and will be a major shift in Ukraine's future military air procurement.
Sweden has signed a similar letter of intent for a long-term deal to supply up to 150 Gripen E fighter jets to Ukraine, with the first deliveries expected within the next few years. Sweden has also provided significant military aid in other forms, including armored vehicles, artillery, air defense systems, and financial contributions to various funds.
Poland is also consistently cited as a major supplier of military aid, often ranking third among all suppliers to Ukraine (after the US and Germany) in terms of the transfer of major conventional arms.
Biggest Winner in Ukraine’s Reconstruction And Rearmament
Unreported behind the scenes as Europe’s leaders go public in continuing to urge Zelensky to reject a settlement of the war except on terms that are deemed as a clear defeat for Russia has been the competition among their military and industrial interests to win the lucrative contracts enriching the lobby groups and buttressing national economies. This competition is intensifying as Zelensky makes a last ditch effort to rally European military support to avoid a more comprehensive defeat as Russia's war machine closes in on Ukrainian positions in the Donbas region.
The biggest winner is unlikely to emerge from among individual EU countries heavily invested in the armament and industrial complexes or even from the EU as a collective. It will be the United States which, having provided the largest amount of military assistance to Ukraine - an estimated $66.5 billion in military aid since February 2022 - is determined not only to call the shots in the peace settlement but also to recover its war ‘investment’ in the reconstruction and rearmament years ahead.
This can be seen clearly from the 28 point draft peace settlement plan presented to Ukraine which is essentially an American imposition on Ukraine and its supporters in the EU. The entire structure of the plan - particularly control over Russian frozen assets, the financial profits for the US in reconstruction, the US-led security dialogue,and the key position and authority of the Peace Council to be chaired by Trump to monitor implementation - appear designed to establish US primacy in shaping the post-war European order and accessing strategic and economic opportunities, potentially at the expense of the EU's own efforts, leverage, and desired role in continental security.
European military and industry critics of the plan will be hoping that the final peace settlement will see more than a few contracts thrown their way as American military and economic hegemony over Europe continues uncontested.
Meanwhile, Zelensky is facing his biggest challenge away from the battlefield. Either accept the American Russian peace plan or face even greater exposure as leader of a corrupt regime that has reaped extraordinary benefits from the war. President Trump has given him a deadline on acceptance of the plan which Zelensky will find difficult to wriggle out of.
The vultures flying over Ukraine since the war began are both local and foreign.
公共政策分析学者
