首相安华在日前的第58届东盟外长会议开幕礼上指出：“在世界各地，曾经用于促进增长的工具（关税）如今被用来施压、孤立和遏制他国。”
美国国务卿网站以及西方媒体在外交和商业新闻报导中，指出美国国务卿卢比奥此次东南亚之行使命是：
●重申美国对印太地区的承诺，反驳对特朗普“美国优先”政策的质疑，并表明美国将本地区视为美国利益和国家安全的核心。
●加强安全关系，并提振反华情绪，尤其是在南海争议议题上。
●宣传美国作为经济伙伴，以及比中国更适合的投资和增长选择。
在与东盟各国外长首次会晤的谈话中，卢比奥表示：“我们（美国与东盟）长期以来一直保持著密切的合作，美国不会放弃与东盟的合作关系，反之会加强和发展彼此伙伴关系。”
从多数报道来看，他的发言既缺乏说服力，也缺乏成效。
卢比奥与特朗普关系不佳
美国外交高层人士都知道，由于个人原因，卢比奥身为国务卿并没有得到特朗普总统的充分信任或支持。
两人关系不稳定由来已久，早在2016年共和党总统初选期间，卢比奥就公开批评特朗普。当时，卢比奥批评了特朗普对外交政策的理解，称特朗普是一个“敏感且缺乏安全感的人”，并声称特朗普“对政策一无所知”。卢比奥还曾打趣道：“你知道如果特朗普没继承2亿美元遗产，他会怎样？他会在曼哈顿卖手表。”他还公开提醒选民，“别让您的好友投票给骗子”，这直接指向了特朗普的信誉。
此后，卢比奥向特朗普屈服和解。因而获委出任美国政府中拥有强大权力的国务卿一职，但他的作用受到了华盛顿权力中心、意识形态转变以及他自身与特朗普议程明显不一致等因素的限制。
这一点在特朗普绕过卢比奥任命中东问题特使史蒂夫·维特科夫一事显现出来，维特科夫负责处理重大谈判（例如加沙停火、俄乌会谈），而卢比奥则被派去执行一些没有挑战性的任务。
与此同时，一些关键决策（例如对盟友征收关税、公开谴责泽连斯基）都出自特朗普和副总统万斯之手。在特朗普与泽连斯基那场公开败笔的会晤中，卢比奥明显被边缘化，甚至有人形容他在会谈上“瘫坐”在沙发上，显得被动而无力。
甚至在特朗普对那些美国力图扩大影响力的国家所进行的大使任命中，卢比奥也始终被排除在外，备受冷落。
这当中包括了最近对马来西亚与新加坡的大使人选提名，引发了亲美主流媒体的外交政策分析师及社交媒体上独立评论员猛烈批评。被任命出使新加坡的是一名前骨科与运动医学专科医生安贾尼辛哈，毫无外交经验；而派驻马来西亚者──尼克亚当斯，则是一名自称“真男人”以及在网络上发表一系列争议话题而声名狼藉的网红。
尼克亚当斯与安贾尼辛哈博士之所以能获得任命，似乎靠的并不是他们对派驻国的认识或专业，而是他们对特朗普总统极尽奉承的忠诚姿态。这再次证明了政治上的阿谀奉承，往往能换来实际的回报。
除了边缘化的政治人物与平庸的外交领导之外，美国国务院和卢比奥试图说服东南亚各国相信美国善意的最大障碍，是美国言行之间日益扩大的信任赤字。美国的外交政策受制于政治上的反复无常、在经济上将东南亚视为竞争者乃至负担或敌人，以及对中国威胁的执念，几乎凌驾于其他一切考量之上。
值得注意的是，就在卢比奥试图重申美国是东南亚各国的持久经济伙伴、是比中国更可靠的替代选择，并暗示东盟国家可能享受更优惠的关税税率之际，特朗普却宣布对包括马来西亚在内的多个东盟国家提高关税。
东盟官员与成员国至今仍记得特朗普第一任期内美国退出《跨太平洋伙伴全面进展协定》（TPP）之举，视之为美国放弃在本区的经济领导地位。他们也非常清楚，美国的重点并不在东南亚，而是放在其他地区与全球危机（如乌克兰、中东），东盟只有在成为美国抗衡中国的“即时目标”时，才会获短暂关注。
东盟的外交政策与经济利益
卢比奥的国务院团队在检讨他此次缩短的东南亚行程成效，以及未来拟定任何政策之前，应该留意以下这些东盟国家的核心关切。
● 东盟国家不希望在一场他们认为违反多极化原则的大国博弈中被当作棋子。
● 东盟重视其“中心地位”。由美国主导的倡议，如“四方安全对话”（美国、日本、印度、澳洲）、澳英美三方安全伙伴关系以及与台湾相关的倡议，不仅无助于东盟发挥作用，反而对东盟的核心地位构成威胁。
● 东盟国家将采取强硬行动，捍卫其自主性和不结盟立场。美国施压东盟成员国在中美之间“选边站队”的做法适得其反，不会带来和平与安全，也必将遭到断然抗拒。
● 东盟希望建立伙伴关系，而不是与同时也是其最大贸易伙伴的邻国（中国）对抗。
最后，美方应该注意到，东盟各国外交和经济部长密切关注美国发起的全球贸易战，以及国际经济格局和秩序规则中出现的新不确定因素。
美国国务卿应该善用他对特朗普及其经济团队所拥有的一切影响力，强调那些针对东盟国家、以牺牲东盟利益为代价的单边关税措施与胁迫式的“贸易再平衡”行动，将对美国与东盟的关系造成长远且负面的影响。
林德宜《美国对东盟加大关税力度》原文：United States Directs Bigger Tariff Bazooka Against ASEAN
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim opening ceremony of the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting
The public relations angle in the website of The U.S. Secretary of State and Western media foreign affairs and business news coverage of Marco Rubio’s current visit to Southeast Asia noted that his mission was to
● Reaffirm U.S. commitment to the Indo-Pacific by countering skepticism about Trump's "America First" approach and to show that the U.S. views the region as central to American interests and national security
● Bolster security ties and boost anti China sentiment, particularly on the South China Sea disputed issues
● Promote the U.S. as an economic partner and a better alternative to China for investment and growth
In his initial remarks on meeting with counterparts from countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Rubio said “We’ve been engaged for a very long time, We have strong partnerships we have no intention of abandoning, but rather strengthening and building upon.”
From most accounts, he was not convincing or successful.
Rubio and Trump: An Uneasy Relationship
Everyone in the high places of U.S. foreign affairs knows that Rubio as Secretary of State does not have the full confidence or support of President Trump for personal reasons.
Their rocky relationship goes back a long time with Rubio’s denunciations of Donald Trump prominently displayed during the 2016 Republican presidential primaries. Rubio at that time criticized Trump's foreign policy understanding, called him a "touchy and insecure guy" and stated Trump "doesn’t know anything about policy". Rubio also quipped "You know where Donald Trump would be if he hadn’t inherited $200m? Selling watches in Manhattan" and he publicly warned voters, "friends do not let friends vote for con artists," directly targeting Trump's credibility.
Rubio has since eaten humble pie and made peace with Trump. Though rewarded with a plum and powerful position in the U.S. administration, his role has been constrained by competing power centers in Washington, ideological shifts, and his own apparent lack of alignment with Trump's agenda.
This is clearly seen in his being bypassed in the appointment of Special Envoys such as Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, who has handled high-stakes negotiations (e.g., Gaza ceasefires, Russia-Ukraine talks) while Rubio has been sent to work on less challenging assignments.
At the same time, key decisions (e.g., tariffs on allies, public rebukes of Zelensky) originate from Trump and Vice President Vance. Rubio was visibly sidelined during the publicly disastrous Zelensky meeting with descriptions of him as passive and "slumped" on a couch during the meeting.
Meanwhile Rubio has been left in the cold in the various ambassadorial appointments made by Trump in the countries that the U.S. wants to see its flag flying higher.
This includes the latest appointments to Malaysia and Singapore with foreign policy analysts from leading U.S. supportive media and independent commentators from social media panning the two nominations. That to Singapore is a former physician specialising in orthopaedics and sports medicine and having no experience in diplomacy, whilst that to Malaysia is notorious for being a self described alpha male as well as for other acts of publicly seeking sensationalism.
The qualifications that Nick Adams and Dr. Anjani Sinha bring to their appointments appear to be their lack of familiarity or expertise with their assigned countries and their efforts at putting President Trump up on a special pedestal. They prove that political sycophancy can be rewarding.
Apart from marginalized political and mediocre diplomatic leadership, the biggest obstacle to the State Department and Rubio's efforts to persuade the governments in South East Asia of the U.S. good intentions is the large and growing credibility gap between its rhetoric and action. US foreign policy is driven by political inconsistency, economic engagement that sees
the region as a competitor or even liability and enemy, and a fixation on the China threat overshadowing all other considerations.
It is telling that at the same time when Rubio is trying to reassure that the U.S. is an enduring economic partner and a more dependable alternative to China, and while suggesting that ASEAN countries might receive better tariff rates, Trump was announcing higher tariffs on several ASEAN countries, including Malaysia.
ASEAN officials and member countries remember the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) during Trump’s first administration as abandoning economic leadership in the region. They are also fully aware that the U.S.focus is not on Southeast Asia but on other regions and global crises (Ukraine, Middle East) and that ASEAN is only a concern when countering China as the immediate goal.
Reminder Of ASEAN Foreign Policy And Economic Interests
Rubio's State Department staff would do well to advise him of the following concerns of ASEAN countries when reviewing the outcome of his shortened time in Southeast Asia and before pitching any future policy
● ASEAN nations do not want to be used as pawns in a great power game that they see as contrary to their multipolarity principles
● ASEAN values its "centrality". U.S.-led initiatives such as the Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia), AUKUS (U.S., U.K., Australia) and Taiwan related initiatives are not only not helpful but constitute a threat to this centrality
● ASEAN nations will act strongly to safeguard their autonomy and non-alignment. U.S. pressure for member countries to "choose sides" between the U.S. and China is counterproductive, will not bring about peace or security, and will be rebuffed
● ASEAN wants partnership, not alignment against a neighbor that is also their largest trading partner.
Finally they should note that ASEAN foreign and economic ministers will be following very closely the U.S. initiated global trade war and new uncertainties in the international economic landscape and rule of order.
The Secretary of State should use whatever influence he has on Trump and his economic colleagues in the U.S. administration to emphasize that the unilateral action relating to tariffs and bullying efforts to "rebalance" trade relationships at the expense of ASEAN countries will have a lasting negative impact on U.S.-ASEAN relations.
公共政策分析学者
