美国总统特朗普及其经济和贸易顾问团队就如何实施特朗普词汇中“最美丽的词”──关税，发表了一系列曲折的言论，占据了新闻头条，而世界各地的专家都清楚其影响以及未来可能产生的反弹和后果。
美国等主要金融和经济机构一致认为，即使特朗普现在撤回关税政策，这已将对全球经济成长和稳定构成重大威胁。
国际货币基金组织基于全球贸易中断、政策不确定性和各国对美国关税的报复措施，将2025年全球经济成长的预测从2024年预测的3.3%下调至2.8%。对于2026年，该组织基于长期的贸易紧张局势，预计全球经济成长呈下行风险，维持在3%的低位。同样重要的是，国际货币基金组织也提高了美国经济衰退机率，从去年10月预测的25%提高到接近40%。
摩根大通研究估计，特朗普的关税（10%的普遍关税+对中国的145%关税）可能导致2025年全球增长（GDP）下降1%。这包括金融市场波动和商业信心减弱的直接影响和外溢效应。即使对中国关税降低60%的情况下，这也将对全球的增长带来负0.7-1%效应。
抛开专家的算计，特朗普的关税战已经产生了现实影响，并开始影响美国和中国的大批群体，一些行业和人群已经承受了巨大的冲击。受影响最严重的群体包括：
美国受影响最严重的群体
1.低收入和预算有限的家庭
取消最低限度豁免（原本允许800美元／约3400令吉以下货品免关税进口）对低收入家庭和精打细算的消费者影响尤为严重，他们依赖来自中国和其他发展中国家的商品，如家庭必需品、服装、电子产品以及各种美国厂家不生产或价格过高的产品。
2.中小企业
依赖进口的中小企业（例如玩具、服装、机械和其他制造商以及零售商）面临供应链中断和成本飙升的问题。许多企业可能会倒闭，因为它们缺乏大型企业的库存缓冲或定价能力。
3.农业出口商与农村经济
由于中国对美国大豆、猪肉和乳制品等农产品征收报复性关税，美国农民失去了中国市场，这对美国农业社区和农村经济造成了沉重打击。在特朗普第一任政府期间，中美之间持续两年的贸易战导致美国对华农产品出口减少了约257亿美元／1099亿令吉。这次情况可能会更糟。
4.汽车和制造业工人
尽管对美国汽车制造商做出了让步，但汽车行业及其相关产品和服务仍然受到沉重打击，因为很大一部分进口的汽车零件要缴纳25%的关税。同时，通用汽车将2025年的利润预期下调了20%以上，并表示特朗普政府的关税将导致其今年的成本增加40亿至50亿美元／171亿至213亿令吉。拥车人士也预期需要支付更多的维修、保险等费用。
5.港口和物流工人
据报导，美国主要港口（洛杉矶、长堤码头、西雅图）货物抵达量下降了35%，导致码头工人和卡车司机的工作时间减少甚至被解雇。全球最大的航运和物流公司之一联合包裹服务公司（UPS）以全球贸易变化“和新的或增加的关税”为由，宣布将在2025年裁员约2万人，以降低成本。
中国受影响最严重的群体
1.依赖出口的制造商
家居产品、电子产品、玩具和家具等产业面临高关税（高达145%），已开始关闭工厂。洛杉矶港报告称，来自中国的货运几乎停止，这表明需求萎陷。
2.贸易依赖型地区的工人
由于美国订单减少，工业中心（如广东、浙江）面临裁员。高盛估计，如果特朗普对中国商品征收145%的关税政策持续下去，多达2000万中国工人（约占中国劳动力的 3%）将受到影响。
3.小型电商
最低限度豁免（原本允许800美元以下货品免关税进口）的终止大幅降低了直接面向消费者的中国电子商务平台（Shein、Temu等）的获利能力，这些平台业绩很大部份来自免关税小额货品。
东盟“伤亡”
除中国外，特朗普关税战特别针对的国家还包括东盟成员国。以下是特朗普关税战对东盟的一些主要影响分析。
1.经济成长与出口中断
面临高关税的越南、柬埔寨、寮国和泰国，他们的出口驱动型成长模式将受到打击。例如，越南向美国出口的商品占其国内生产总值（GDP）的30%，主要是来自电子和服装业。
2.GDP萎缩风险
分析员估计，特朗普的关税可能导致2025年东盟地区经济成长率下降0.5个百分点，而越南和柬埔寨的GDP则分别面临下降5.5%和3%的风险。
3.供应链中断
作为中国企业为逃避美国关税而转移出口地的东盟国家（例如马来西亚和越南生产的太阳能板），其出口将受到干扰并减少。
4.社会冲击和劳动市场影响
纺织业（印尼）、电子业（马来西亚）和钢铁业（泰国）等产业的失业人数可能达到数万人。出口收入减少的连锁反应将带来更高的通货膨胀和生活水平的降低。
尽管东盟区域较落后的国家受到最严重的冲击，但目前看来，东盟成员国尚未有任何一个屈服于美国，这清楚地表明美国的霸凌和恐吓策略并没有带来特朗普政府所期待的夸大和过大的效果。
特朗普关税战主要受害者
美国关税战下最大的冲击，不只在于其带来的失业和收入减少的经济损失。而是美国在全球经济和地缘政治的信誉和领导地位所受的伤害。
这种影响凸显了特朗普关税的连锁效应，其影响范围不仅限于经济指标，还波及到国际秩序的关键方面，如地缘政治联盟、软实力地位、大众舆论、思维模式以及一系列对美国在亚洲地区和世界各地的地位至关重要的相关因素。
即使特朗普撤回关税政策，美国也将失去了国际友好和尊重，这是需要很多年才能修复回来的。
林德宜《特朗普关税战“伤亡”更新》原文：Casualties Update in Trump's Tariff War
With US President Trump and his team of economic and trade advisers hogging the news with twists and turns on implementation of the “most beautiful word” in Trump’s vocabulary， pundits around the world are clear on the impact and the likely future consequences and repercussions.
Leading financial and economic institutions in the US and elsewhere unanimously agree that the tariff policies， even if Trump beats a retreat，pose a major threat to global economic growth and stability.
The IMF - citing trade disruptions， policy uncertainty， and retaliatory measures - has revised its global growth projection for 2025 to 2.8%， down from 3.3% in 2024. For 2026， it expects global growth to remain subdued at 3%， with risks tilted downward due to the prolonged trade tensions. What is significant too is that it has increased the probability of a recession in the US to nearly 40%， higher than its forecast of 25% in October.
J.P. Morgan Research estimates that Trump’s tariffs (10% universal tariff + 145% on China) could reduce global GDP by 1% in 2025. This includes direct impacts and spillovers from financial market volatility and weakened business sentiment. In a scenario with a reduced 60% China tariff， the drag could still reach 0.7-1%.
Away from the calculus of pundits， Trump’s tariff war has real life effects and begun to impact large groups in the U.S. and China，with some sectors and population groups already significantly bearing the brunt. A breakdown of the most adversely affected groups includes:
Groups in the U.S. Most Adversely Affected
1. Low-Income and Budget Conscious Families
The elimination of the de minimis exemption (which allowed tariff-free imports under $800) disproportionately affects lower income households and budget-conscious consumers who rely on goods from China and other developing countries for their household essentials， clothing， electronics， and a wide range of products that are not available from U.S. producers or are too expensive.
2. Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)
SMEs dependent on imports (e.g.，toy， apparel， machinery and other manufacturers， and retailers) face supply chain disruptions and skyrocketing costs. Many may go out of business， as they lack the inventory buffers or pricing power of larger enterprises.
3. Agricultural Exporters and the Rural Economy
The loss of Chinese markets for U.S. farmers arising from China’s retaliatory tariffs targeting agricultural exports such as soybeans， pork， and dairy is a big hit on the farming community and rural economies. During the first Trump administration， the two-year trade war between the U.S. and China reduced American agricultural exports to China by an estimated $25.7 billion. This time it could be even worse.
4. Automotive and Manufacturing Workers
Despite concessions made to U.S. car manufacturers， the automotive industry and its associated products and services are still being hard hit since a significant portion of auto parts that are imported are subject to a 25% tariff. Meanwhile General Motors has cut its profit forecast for 2025 by more than 20 percent and said the Trump administration’s tariffs would increase its costs by $4 billion to $5 billion this year. Motorists can also expect to pay more for repairs， insurance and practically every aspect of their future vehicle bill.
5. Port and Logistics Workers
Major ports (Los Angeles， Long Beach， Seattle) are reporting a 35% drop in cargo arrivals， leading to reduced hours and layoffs for dockworkers and truckers. United Parcel Service (UPS)， one of the world’s largest shipping and logistics companies， citing changes in global trade “and new or increased tariffs” has now announced that it will cut about 20，000 jobs in 2025 to reduce costs and increase.
Groups in China Most Adversely Affected
1. Export-Dependent Manufacturers
Industries such as home products， electronics， toys and furniture facing prohibitive tariffs (up to 145%)， have begun factory closures. The Port of Los Angeles reports a near-halt in shipments from China， signaling collapsing demand.
2. Workers in Trade-Dependent Regions
Industrial hubs (e.g.Guangdong， Zhejiang) face layoffs as U.S. orders decline. Goldman Sachs estimates that up to 20 million Chinese workers - roughly 3% of China’s labor force -are exposed to U.S.-bound exports if Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods holds firm.
3. Small Online Sellers
The end of the de minimis provision slashes profitability for direct-to-consumer Chinese e-commerce platforms (Shein， Temu， etc.) which have relied on tariff-free small packages for their sales.
Casualty Count in ASEAN
Apart from China， other countries specially targeted by Trump's tariff war include ASEAN member countries. Below is a breakdown of some key impacts of Trump’s tariff war in ASEAN:
1. Economic Growth and Export Disruptions
Vietnam， Cambodia， Laos and Thailand face steep tariffs， threatening their export-driven growth models. Vietnam， for instance， exports goods worth 30% of its GDP to the U.S.， primarily electronics and garment sectors.
2. GDP Contraction Risk
Analysts estimate Trump’s tariffs could cut regional growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2025， with Vietnam and Cambodia at risk of losing 5.5% and 3% of GDP respectively.
3.Supply Chain Disruptions
ASEAN nations serving as hubs for Chinese firms rerouting goods to avoid U.S. tariffs (e.g.solar panels manufactured in Malaysia and Vietnam) will see their exports disrupted and reduced.
4. Social and Labor Market Consequences
Job losses in industries such as textiles (Indonesia)， electronics (Malaysia)， and steel (Thailand) could shed many thousands of jobs. The ripple effects of reduced export earnings will bring higher inflation levels and worsen living standards.
Although less developed countries of the region will be hit the hardest， for now it is significant that no ASEAN member nation has yet to bend their knee clearly showing that American bully and scare tactics does not have the hyped up and oversized effect that the Trump administration has been expecting.
The Main Casualty of Trump Tariff War
Much more significant than the economic losses and casualty count are not the lost jobs and reduced incomes. This is the damage to U.S. credibility and leadership in the global economic and geo-political arenas.
This impact highlights the cascading effects of Trump’s tariffs， which extend beyond economic metrics to key aspects of the international order such as geopolitical alliances， soft power standing， popular opinion， mindsets and a host of interrelated aspects crucial to the U.S. standing in the Asian region and elsewhere in the world.
Even if Trump back-pedals on his tariffs，the US has already lost so much international goodwill and respect that it will take many years to repair the damage.
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