林德宜：中日韩正处于历史转折点

3月21日，日本外长岩屋毅在中日韩外长会议开幕式上致欢迎辞时表示，“鉴于国际形势日益严峻，我相信我们可能正处于历史的转折点”，他并不是简单地表达个人观点。他还强调了一种在整个西方世界以及东亚和亚太地区日益受到关注的地缘政治立场。

这个转折点是随著特朗普的当选和其“让美国再次伟大”政策的推行而到来，特朗普政策不仅瓦解了冷战时期形成的联盟，而且也在重塑全球政治和经济秩序。

特朗普带来的影响仍在扩散，但从其在推动乌俄战争达成和解中的主导角色，已经可看出特朗普的外交政策，以及其对亚太地区的影响。

特朗普外交政策与东亚

首先，美国的盟友将不得不为特朗普总统任期内美国提供的军事保护支付更多费用。目前，白宫正在起草要求，要德国、日本和任何驻有美军的国家承担美军驻扎的全额费用——再外加50%或更多——以获得美军驻扎的保护特权。在某些情况下，根据“成本加50％”公式，驻有美军的国家可能需要支付比目前高出五到六倍的费用。

无论最终达成的数字如何，为确保特朗普满意的“公平协议”，这对于自七十年前冷战开始以来，一直与美国军事保护关系相连的日本和韩国来说都将是一笔昂贵的开支。日本有超过5万4000名美国军事人员驻扎，而驻扎韩国美军则超过2万8500名，包括陆军、海军、空军部队。

2016年至2019年，美国国防部在日本花费了209亿美元／926亿令吉，在韩国花费了134亿美元／593亿令吉，用于支付军人薪资、建设设施和维护成本。而日本和韩国政府分别提供了126亿美元／558亿令吉和58亿美元／257亿令吉来支持美国的驻军。光是2024年，美国军事预算中分配给印度-太平洋司令部 (USINDOPACOM) 的金额就达153亿美元／678亿令吉。

尽管日本公众尚未完全意识到，但日本政策制定者却清楚地知道，特朗普政府在2019年要求东京将其对驻日美军的费用承担提高四倍。美国政府可能很快就会再次提出这样或那样的要求，要求日本政府以某种形式付款，因为特朗普一再声称日本在贸易和防务方面长期以来剥削美国的慷慨，并指责日本奉行“掠夺性和保护主义”的经济政策。

韩国虽然最近同意在2025年将其对美军驻扎的费用分担比例增加8.5%，但仍可预期会面临进一步的压力，被美国要求支付更多费用。至于台湾，虽然没有美军驻扎，但台湾企业和一般民众可能会因美国保护的特权而受到更严苛的财务压力。

第二个后果是特朗普可能试图与朝鲜领导人金正恩重新接触。尽管特朗普在第一个任期内未能与朝鲜达成任何协议，但特朗普在今年1月就职后曾多次表示，他将再次与金正恩接触。他的理由是：“我与金正恩关系很好，我们拭目以待”，“但可以肯定的是，朝鲜是一个核子大国。”

如果特朗普这次成功推行其交易式政策，实现朝鲜半岛无核化并降低美国卷入武装冲突的可能性——这似乎也是他在乌俄战争中的策略——那么韩国、日本和台湾将面临更高的不安全感与不确定性。

第三个可能的后果是，美国可能大幅削减对某些军事伙伴的支持，若这些伙伴关系被视为一种浪费、低效且无法负担。在一个以削减成本为核心、由美国政府效率部主导的财政议程下，美国正试图将年度政府支出削减2兆美元／约8.8兆令吉，因此这类军事合作可能会被大幅缩减。

这项由马斯克推动的倡议，要求接受“暂时的艰难”并呼吁“每个人都要作出让步”，以确保美国的长期繁荣。在此背景下，拜登政府主导的亚太地区安全计画——特别是“四方安全对话”（美国、澳洲、日本和印度）以及AUKUS（澳洲、英国和美国三边安全伙伴关系）——重要性将被削弱，甚至可能被遗弃。

对于美国主导的日本、韩国和台湾的安全体系而言，这一变化对于太平洋两岸的保守派和新冷战派别来说，将不会是个好消息。

三国经济融合

也许与此“转折点”相关的最重要的发展是，对东亚地区经济方面的影响。

在过去的半个世纪里，日本、中国和韩国的经济崛起，使其凭借经济规模、工业能力、创新实力以及全球市场对其产品的需求，成为全球经济中不可或缺的关键力量。

特朗普在美国政治与商业领袖的支持下，希望夺回美国在全球市场上输给亚洲竞争对手的份额。他正准备发动关税“火力全开”的攻势，以摧毁每一个对手，试图在全球经济市场上开辟新局。大多数市场观察人士预计，中国将成为特朗普关税政策的主要目标，但韩国、日本和台湾亦不能幸免。

中日韩三国外长会议的新闻稿对三国将面临的经济挑战保持沉默。然而，声明中也提到未来三国的交流与合作将具有“重大意义”，这表明中国、日本和韩国很可能将携手应对保护主义政策，并共同捍卫目前各自支持的自由贸易原则。

如果这一趋势成真，不仅有助于缓解三国之间的历史冲突和当前地缘政治竞争，更深层次的经济融合甚至可能带来比日本外长岩屋毅所关注的变转之更激进转折。台湾或许显得有些“格格不入”，但其可能是受这一转折影响最大者。

林德宜《中日韩正处于历史转折点》原文：Japan, China and South Korea At A Historic Turning Point

From Eleventh Japan-China-ROK Trilateral Foreign Ministers’ Meeting

Minister Iwaya, referring to the significant influence and responsibilities for the peace and prosperity of the region and the international community shared by Japan, China and the ROK, stated that enhancing future-oriented exchanges and cooperation of the three countries holds great significance.https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/pressite_000001_01107.html

When Japanese Foreign Minister, Takashi Iwaya, in his welcoming remarks at the start of the trilateral summit meeting of Japan, China and South Korea on 21 March noted that “Given the increasingly severe international situation, I believe we may truly be at a turning point in history,” he was not simply expressing a personal opinion. He was also emphasising a position on current geopolitical dynamics which has gained momentum throughout the western world and in the East Asia and Asia Pacific region.

This turning point has come about with Donald Trump’s election and his “make America great again” policy which is not only demolishing alliances born out of the cold war but is also reshaping the global political and economic order.

The consequences of Trump’s still emerging but already quite well defined foreign policy and its implications for Asia and the Pacific may be discerned from what is taking place in Trump’s leading role to bring the Ukraine-Russian war to a settlement.

Trump Foreign Policy and East Asia

The first is that allies of the U.S will have to pay much more for the military protection provided by America under Trump’s presidency. For now, the White House is drawing up demands for Germany, Japan and any country hosting U.S. troops to pay the full price of American soldiers deployed on their soil - plus 50 percent or more - for the privilege of hosting them. In some cases, nations hosting American forces may be asked to pay five to six times as much as they do now under the “Cost Plus 50” formula.

Whatever figure is finally arrived to ensure a “fair deal” according to Trump’s satisfaction, this will not come cheap for Japan and South Korea which have been tied to America’s militarized umbilical cord since the beginning of the cold war seventy years ago. Japan has over 54,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in the country whilst South Korea has over 28,500 active-duty soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines stationed there.

From 2016 through 2019, the U.S. Department of Defense spent $20.9 billion in Japan and $13.4 billion in South Korea to pay military salaries, construct facilities, and undertake maintenance. The governments of Japan and South Korea provided $12.6 billion and $5.8 billion to support the U.S. presence. In 2024 alone, the U.S. military budget allocated to the Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) was $15.3 billion.

Japanese policy makers - though not the public yet - are fully aware that in 2019, the Trump administration asked Tokyo to quadruple the amount it contributed to the cost of maintaining U.S. troops in Japan. This demand is likely to be made again soon for payment - in one form or another - by the Japanese government for what Trump has repeatedly alleged to be past Japanese exploitation of American generosity in trade and defence, and Japanese “predatory and protectionist” economic policies. 

South Korea, although agreeing recently to increase its share of hosting U.S. forces by 8.5% in 2025, can expect more pressure to pay a much higher sum. As for Taiwan, although it does not have any US troops stationed there, Taiwanese businesses and ordinary citizens can expect to be squeezed extremely hard for the privilege of American protection.

The second consequence is a possible Trump attempt to re-engage with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un. Although unsuccessful during his first term in reaching any sort of agreement, Trump has said on several occasions after his inauguration in January that he will reach out to Kim again. His reasoning: "I have a great relationship with Kim Jong-un, and we'll see what happens". "But certainly, he's a nuclear power." 

Should Trump be successful this time round in his transactional policy making strategy ostensibly to bring about the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and reduce the possibility of armed conflict involving the U.S.- this appears to be his strategy in the Ukraine Russia war - South Korea, Japan and Taiwan will face heightened security uncertainty and unpredictability.

A third possible consequence could see a sharp reduction in U.S. support for military partnerships seen as wasteful, ineffective and unaffordable to a cost cutting DOGE dominated fiscal agenda aimed at reducing U.S. annual government spending by U.S.$2 
trillion. 

This Musk initiative requiring “temporary hardship” and for “everyone to take a haircut” to ensure long term prosperity for the U.S. will see security programmes in the Asia-Pacific region initiated under Biden’s watch - in particular the QUAD (U.S., Australia, Japan and India) initiative and AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom and United States), trilateral security partnership - reduced in importance, and perhaps even abandoned. 

What this means for the US dominated security systems of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will not be positive to the conservatives and new cold war warriors from both sides of the Pacific.

Trilateral Convergence on the Economic Front

Perhaps the most important development relating to this “turning point” are the consequences on the economic front for the East Asia region.

The past half century has seen the emergence of the economies of Japan, China and South Korea to become indispensable in the global economy due to their economic size, industrial capability, innovation, and the global demand for their products.

Trump, with the backing of America’s political and business leaders, wants to regain what the US has lost to its Asian competitors with a tariff bazooka directed to burn every adversary in his mission to blaze a new page in the global economic marketplace. Most market observers expect China to bear the brunt of Trump’s tariff policies but South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan will also be impacted.

The trilateral meeting press release was quiet on the economic challenges that the three countries will face. However, the readout line noting that future exchanges and cooperation of the three countries will hold “great significance” indicates that China, Japan and South Korea are more than likely to be working together against protectionist policies and to collectively defend the open and free trade principles that they presently separately uphold.

If that happens, it will help to defuse their past conflicts and current geopolitical rivalry in the region. Their greater convergence on the economic front may also bring about an even more radical turning point than what Iwaya has drawn attention to. Taiwan appears to be the odd man out but it may be the most affected by this turning point.