林德宜：特朗普能让美国再次伟大吗？

称赞美国是民主、自由和人权捍卫者的美国盟友和支持者现在正争先恐后地加入媒体队列，祝贺即将上任的特朗普总统。

在他们的公开讯息中，他们将称赞这一结果是美国优越论的例子，也认为这应是世界独裁国家学习的榜样。他们中的一些人会试图提醒特朗普维护美国对民主的定义和西方的法治。

第一个加入祝贺行列的是英国首相斯塔默。他在英国媒体上发表的奉承讯息如下：

祝贺当选总统的特朗普取得历史性的选举胜利。我期待在未来的岁月里与您合作。作为最亲密的盟友，英国和美国将继续努力，并肩捍卫我们共同的自由、民主和进取的价值观。从发展和安全到创新和科技，我知道英美特殊关系将在未来几年在大西洋两岸继续繁荣发展，但私下里，斯塔默和其他西方领导人会有不同的感受和反应。他们将可能非常担忧接下来发生的事情。

这不难理解。尽管西方媒体展示了美国未来四年会有截然不同愿景，外交政策也可能翻天覆地变化，但共和党和民主党都一致坚持特朗普著名的口号：“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）。

MAGA如何影响美国外交政策？

当选后，特朗普预计将大力推动“让美国再次伟大”外交政策议程，并以牺牲世界其他国家的利益和关切为代价。“让美国再次伟大”的外交政策影响不仅会让美国视为竞争对手和敌人的国家——中国、俄罗斯、朝鲜、伊朗、古巴、阿富汗、巴基斯坦、塞尔维亚、委内瑞拉、白俄罗斯等感受到。其影响也将辐射到包括英国、加拿大、欧盟国家、乌克兰、澳洲、纽西兰、日本、韩国在内的盟国，以及过去曾获得美国金钱和军事援助，如今相对贫穷且影响力小的其他国家如菲律宾等。

墨西哥、印度和越南等，这一些没有追随美国意识形态潮流、认为自己独立的国家将发现，在未来四年，骑墙观望将不会是一个舒服选项，因为新任美国总统不会保护或免除他们于美国在贸易、经济、金融、移民、安全、气候变迁以及其他特朗普认为对提升美国地位和阻止美国衰落的重要且必要的政策变化影响。

在7月初时，《经济学人》就制作了一个排名榜，对可能受到特朗普新总统核心政策影响的各国脆弱性进行排名。这名为“特朗普风险指数”排名榜评估了美国70个最大贸易伙伴对潜在政策变化的影响程度和脆弱性。

与此同时，我们也可看到美国的自由派和保守派分析人士——现在都意识到美国正处于一场生存危机——支持“让美国再次伟大”成为美国外交政策的焦点。

这场危机是一场长期发展的危机，其不仅暴露了美国社会内部的深层分歧。这也让人们关注到特朗普所描述的美国“一个失败国家”的现状。这种论述令一些美国人感到不满，许多民主党支持者同意这说法，但也谴责共和党和特朗普言论与过去执政记录，未能改善国家状况。

也许最令人不安的是，美国的混乱和不稳定可能会让新总统更加依赖美国的军事优势来确保美国在全球地缘政治中的主导地位。美国军队可能会被重用，以支持使美国再次伟大所需的外交政策行动。

特朗普领导下的美国是否会继续巩固美国在全球打造，并获西方军工媒体复合体致力维护的单极世界？

反之，世界各地的领导人希望特朗普总统能确保美国在维护受到严重破坏的全球和平共存上发挥关键作用。

林德宜《特朗普能让美国再次伟大吗？》原文：Can Trump Make America Great Again?

Allies and supporters of the United States who praise it as the champion of democracy, freedom and human rights are now rushing to join the media queue to congratulate the incoming president.

In their public messaging, they are likely to praise the outcome as an example of American exceptionalism and a role model for the countries of the world they regard as autocratic. A few of them will try to remind Trump to uphold the US definition of democracy and the western rule of law.

First to jump on the congratulatory bandwagon has been the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. His flattering message out in British media reads:

Congratulations President-elect Trump on your historic election victory. I look forward to working with you in the years ahead. As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come

Privately though, Starmer and other western leaders will be feeling and reacting differently. They are also likely to be very afraid of what will now follow.

The explanation is not far to find. Though portrayed in Western media as offering vastly different visions of the US for the next four years as well as being diametrically opposed in their foreign policy objectives, both Republican and Democrat parties concur in adherence to the slogan made famous by Trump: that is to “Make America Great Again” (MAGA).

How Will MAGA impact US Foreign Policy?

Post election, Trump can be expected to push the MAGA foreign policy agenda hard and at the expense of the interests and concerns of the rest of the world. MAGAs foreign policy impact will be felt not only by countries which the US sees as rivals and enemies - China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Serbia, Venezuela, Belarus and others.

It will also inflict costs on allies including the United Kingdom, Canada, European Union nations, Ukraine, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and a few others such as the Philippines previously provided with generous financial and military support by a moneyed and powerful benefactor which
is now relatively impoverished and less influential.

Countries not hitched to the American ideological bandwagon that see themselves as independent such as Mexico, India and Vietnam will find that sitting on the fence in the next four years will be much less comfortable as the new US president will not shield or spare them from the looming policy changes in trade, economy, finance, immigration, security, climate change and wherever else he sees as important and necessary to uplift the US and stem its decline.

Earlier in July, the Economist drew up a table ranking the vulnerability of various countries likely to be impacted by a new Trump presidency’s core policies. The table, The Trump Risk Index, assessed the exposure and vulnerability of America’s 70 largest trading partners to potential policy changes.

Increasingly, we find that liberal and conservative American analysts - both now recognizing that the US is in an existential crisis - are in support of MAGA to be the focus of US foreign policy.

The crisis, a long developing one, exposes not only the deep divisions within American society. It also brings to attention the current status of the US described by Trump as “a failing country”. It is a description that some Americans have taken umbrage with but which many Democrat supporters agree on too whilst denouncing the Republican and Trumpian rhetoric and record on failing to improve the state of the nation.

What is perhaps most unsettling is that the disorder and instability in the US may see the new President become more reliant on US military superiority to ensure American dominance in global geopolitics. The US military might again be called upon to underpin the foreign policy actions needed to make America great again.

Will the US under Trump continue imposing the unipolar world that it has shaped on the rest of the world and which the western military-industrial-media complex is fixated on preserving?

Leaders around the world will be hoping that President Trump will work to ensure that the US plays a key role in upholding the much damaged cause of peaceful coexistence.