林德宜：2026年：中国和世界可对特朗普政府抱持怎样期待

2026年，美国在政治与经济层面对世界与中国所带来的影响，几乎可以确定将是“旧戏重演”。美国总统特朗普的第二任期，将沿著两条不同的路线运行。第一，是一种交易式的“美国优先”外交政策，重视利益胜过传统盟友关系，并持续追求在美洲地区的霸权控制，在某种程度上，亦延伸至亚太地区——在那里，中国仍被塑造成对美国主导世界秩序的“生存性挑战”。

第二条，则是对联邦与州层级官僚体系的国内“再”建构，目标包括激进式放松监管、加强移民执法、减税、“钻吧，宝贝，钻吧”的能源政策，以及特朗普“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）竞选纲领中的其他关键社会经济组成部分。

其中一个关键面向，是将中国视为美国的主要敌人与威胁，无论是在制造业、工业、科技、人工智慧，或几乎任何经济领域——即便这些领域未必真正涉及国家安全。独立观察者指出，“国家安全”的概念在拜登与特朗普两任政府下被大幅扩张，凡是对其政权具有政治效用者，皆可被纳入其中。

外交政策：清算与施压

2026年的美国外交政策，将进一步复活《门罗主义》，并将其制度化为一个现代延伸版本——所谓的“特朗普推论”（Trump Corollary），亦被口语称为“唐罗主义”（Donroe Doctrine）。该推论在2025年12月公布的《国家安全战略》中正式亮相，主张美国维持对整个西半球政治、经济与军事环境的绝对控制。

这一聚焦南北美洲的战略，始于特朗普在2025年反复宣称美国应收购格陵兰岛，甚至可能吞并加拿大，并将这些企图包装为攸关“国家安全”与“经济稳定”的必要之举。此一战略标志著，美国正从过去二十年历任总统所奉行的“全球主义”外交路线，回摆至一种类似十九世纪的势力范围与霸权影响模式——西半球成为美国的首要战略重心。

● 该政策的第一个支点，是“招募”区域内的关键代理人（如阿根廷总统哈维尔米莱），并与志同道合的右翼政府“扩展”同盟关系；这一趋势已在洪都拉斯、萨尔瓦多、巴拉圭与玻利维亚出现。

● 实际行动（目前主要局限于海空领域）则集中在委内瑞拉。2025年最后几个月，特朗普政府透过一场高度公开的海空行动，大幅升高对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的军事压力，试图迫使其下台。

● 西方媒体对外宣传的理由，是打击“毒品恐怖主义”。然而，这种前所未见的强硬行动，背后有两个关键因素：其一，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量，估计超过3000亿桶（约占全球总量18%），高于沙地阿拉伯与加拿大；其二，是为了透过积极排除区域外竞争者（尤其是中国与俄罗斯），并运用经济与军事胁迫工具，来确保美国的霸权地位。

作为回应，委内瑞拉已将此事提交联合国。马杜罗猛烈抨击特朗普的军事威胁，称其为意图掠夺委内瑞拉自然财富的“好战与殖民主义幌子”。在一次公开广播中，马杜罗表示他不会向特朗普政府屈服，并形容对方是企图把委内瑞拉变成殖民地的“帝国主义与纳粹法西斯右翼势力”。

至于世界其他地区，美国外交政策连同其持续的关税战，仍将以“交易式现实主义”为核心：长期条约被视为可谈判的资产，而经济工具则成为对抗美国经济与工业衰退的主要武器。

这一逻辑同样适用于美国在乌克兰与欧洲的政策，以及在中东地区的作为——其中以色列成为一个例外。以色列在美国政治中的特殊地位，源于共享价值与战略利益的复合因素、强大的游说力量与竞选捐款；更为根深蒂固的，则是西方犹太侨民与以色列政府之间在金融、经济、社会文化与宗教层面的深厚连结，无论当权者是谁、由哪个政党执政。

将中国视为“生存性威胁”

在亚太地区，鉴于特朗普计划于2026年4月访问北京，预期将出现淡化“中国是生存性威胁”的修辞。这次访问，是特朗普与习近平在2025年10月会晤后，双方取得的降温成果。

北京的会面，双方可能取得的成果，将围绕在巩固一种“新均衡”，以符合特朗普在2026年及其后所采取的交易式关系策略。然而，相对于近期浮现的美国政治与战略论述发展，美国对华政策不太可能从根本上重塑。这政策如今已牢牢嵌入一种“新冷战”思维之中，并透过科技围堵、同盟加固与军事吓阻来执行，在这方面，特朗普亦承袭了拜登政府的升级经验。

因此，2026年更可能见到的是2018—2025年间已启动的对华政策进一步深化，而非方向性的剧烈转变。美中之间在若干合作领域或可达成共识，但这些合作将从属于一整套旨在放缓中国发展、进一步妖魔化中共，并透过“美国优先”的保护主义与供应链韧性，确保美国科技与经济主导地位的政策之下。

林德宜《2026年：中国和世界可对特朗普政府抱持怎样期待》原文：2026: What Can China And World Expect From The Trump Administration

What's in store for the world and China from the US in politics and economics in 2026 will almost certainly see more of the same. This second Trump administration can be expected to operate on two distinct tracks. The first is a transactional "America First" foreign policy that prioritizes leverage over traditional alliances but continues to pursue hegemonic control in the American region, and to a lesser extent in the Asia Pacific region in which China continues to be framed as the existential challenger to a U.S. led world order.

The second is a domestic ‘re’ construction of the federal and state bureaucracies aimed at radical deregulation, immigration enforcement, tax cuts, “drill baby drill” energy related policies, as well as other key socio-economic components of Trump's “MAGA” campaign.

A key aspect sees China as the US main enemy and threat, be it in manufacturing, industry, technology, artificial intelligence and whatever economic sector, even if this may not be related to the conception of national security. Independent observers have pointed out how the concept has been expanded greatly by Biden and Trump to include whatever is politically useful to their regimes.

Foreign Policy: “Liquidation and Leverage"

American foreign policy in 2026 will see the further revival of the Monroe Doctrine now codified as a modern extension known as the "Trump Corollary", sometimes colloquially called the "Donroe Doctrine", Unveiled in the December 2025 National Security Strategy, the Trump Corollary asserts that the U.S. will maintain absolute control over the hemisphere’s political, economic, and military environment.

This North and South America focused strategy began with Trump's assertion throughout 2025 that the United States should acquire Greenland and potentially annex Canada, framing these ambitions as vital for "national security" and "economic stability. The strategy marks a shift from the "globalist" foreign policy of past presidents during the last two decades back to a 19th-century-style sphere of hegemony and influence model, where the Western Hemisphere is the United States' top priority.

● The initial prong of this policy has been to "enlist" regional champions (like Javier Milei in Argentina) and "expand" alliances with like-minded, right-leaning governments as has taken place in Honduras, El Salvador, Paraguay and Bolivia.

● Action on the ground (for now confined to the sea and air) has concentrated on Venezuela. In the last few months of 2025, the Trump administration has significantly escalated military pressure on President Nicholas Maduro through a campaign of
sea and air actions in a highly publicised effort to compel him to resign.

● Although the public justification propagandized through Western media has been framed as an effort to cripple narco-terrorism, two factors are key to this unprecedented aggression. The first is because Venezuela holds the #1 rank for the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels (around 18% of global total), ahead of Saudi Arabia and Canada. The second is to ensure U.S. preeminence by aggressively excluding extra-hemispheric rivals (specifically China and Russia) and using coercive economic and military tools to enforce regional hegemony.

In response, Venezuela has taken its case to the United Nations with Maduro blasting Trump’s threats of military action as a "warmongering and colonialist pretense" aimed at seizing Venezuela's natural wealth. During a public broadcast, Maduro indicated that he would not give in to the Trump administration which he described as "imperialism and the Nazi fascist right-wing" seeking to turn Venezuela into a colony.

As for the rest of the world, U.S. foreign policy, coupled with its continuing tariff war, will continue to be defined by "transactional realism," where long-standing treaties are treated as negotiable assets and economic tools are used as primary weapons to counter the U.S. economic and industrial decline.

This can be seen to apply to U.S. policy in Ukraine and Europe as well as in the Middle East, where an exception has been made of Israel whose hold on American politics is a result of a complex combination of shared values and strategic interests, significant lobbying efforts and campaign contributions. Most resilient is the less publicly identified deeply rooted financial, economic, socio-cultural and religious ties of the Jewish diaspora in the West with the Israeli government, whatever the leader or party in power.

Dealing With China As The Existential Threat

In the Asia Pacific region, we can expect a lessening of the rhetoric characterising China as an "existential threat" in view of the planned visit of Trump to Beijing in April 2026. This visit follows a de-escalation in tensions achieved during Trump's face-to-face meeting with President Xi Jinping in October 2025.

The potential accomplishments for both sides following the Beijing meeting may revolve around solidifying a "new equilibrium" in Trump’s transactional relationship strategy for 2026 and beyond. However this relatively recent development in U.S. political and strategic discourse is unlikely to redefine American policy towards China, now firmly embedded in a new Cold War mindset and executed through technological containment, alliance fortification, and military deterrence, and in which Trump has taken lessons of escalation from Biden’s administration.

Hence 2026 will see a deepening of the China policies set in motion between 2018-2025, rather than a radical shift. U.S. and China agreement on some cooperation will take place but they will be subordinate to policies to slow China's progress, further demonise the CCP, and ensure U.S. technology and economic dominance and leadership through "America First" protectionism and supply chain resilience.

本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。