林德宜：2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主？

在欧洲乃至全球领袖之中，匈牙利总理维克多·欧尔班（Viktor Orbán）的名字鲜少出现在主流媒体上。尤其是在以美国、英国及其盟友主导的英语新闻体系中，这些媒体在塑造与影响全球地缘政治舆论上具有举足轻重的地位，即使中国媒体也未能完全摆脱这种影响。

在媒体上一旦出现欧尔班，其形象几乎总是负面，不是被描绘成“专制领袖”，就是“破坏性力量”，或“俄罗斯总统普京的盟友”。

因此，欧尔班最近访问华盛顿并与美国总统特朗普会晤，尽管这次会面有助于推动俄乌战争的和平解决，但仍不出意料地遭到一如既往的批评性报导。

从欧尔班与特朗普之间的关系来看，这位匈牙利领袖在全球政治中被低估的程度显而易见。早在2024年3月、特朗普尚未中选和上任总统时，两人就在特朗普海湖庄园会面，特朗普在群众面前表示：“没有谁比欧尔班更好、更聪明或更有领导力。他太出色了。”当时特朗普赞扬的是欧尔班在国内的政策，这些政策正是共和党在反移民与反LGBTQ立场上所借鉴的。

在这次正式访问中，特朗普在白宫形容：“能在这里接待我的朋友，是一种荣誉。”他多次称赞欧尔班是“伟大的领袖……他做得非常棒，是匈牙利国内极具实力的人物……他治理得很好，本身也没有争议，也没有其他国家领袖那样的麻烦。”

特朗普显然是在藉赞扬欧尔班之名，暗指自己在美国的国内困境。但更重要的是，特朗普也在释放信号——准备与这位在欧洲战争问题上立场相近的领导人建立更紧密联系。特朗普预期，欧尔班将在欧洲地缘政治以及战后重建中扮演关键角色。

特朗普与欧尔班：俄乌战争共同立场

两人在11月7日白宫会晤后的联合记者会上，传达了以下几个关键讯息：

●共同的和平目标：两位领袖皆强调致力于结束战争。欧尔班重申支持特朗普促成停战的努力。

●对乌克兰能取胜的怀疑： 当被问及乌克兰是否可能赢得战争时，欧尔班回答：“奇迹总是可能发生。”他早前已对特朗普表示，乌克兰无法在军事上击败“强大的俄罗斯”，“俄罗斯是能在战争中取胜的国家”。

●特朗普的角色：特朗普重申这场战争“本不应发生”，并指若他当时执政，“战争早已迅速结束”。

●匈牙利的立场： 欧尔班强调，匈牙利的首要任务是维护和平，部分原因在于它与乌克兰接壤。他指出，美国与匈牙利是少数明确“支持和平”的声音，与那些仍坚信乌克兰可在战场上取胜的欧盟国家形成鲜明对比。

总的来说，这场记者会凸显两位领袖在“必须达成和平协议”上的共识，同时突出了匈牙利的独特定位——作为北约成员国，却仍维持与俄罗斯的密切关系。

欧尔班：坚持推动和平

全球和平运动的支持者早已注意到，欧尔班自俄乌战争爆发以来，始终拒绝顺从欧盟主流“以军事方式击败俄罗斯”的路线。

他一直是“立即停火、恢复谈判”的主要倡导者之一，也是在欧洲体系中，唯一能实质阻止战事升级的领袖。

在乌克兰问题上的立场： 欧尔班一贯拒绝向乌克兰提供武器，或允许军备经过匈牙利领土转运。他多次阻挠或延迟欧盟对乌援助与制裁俄罗斯的方案，理由是这些行动只会延长战争。他揭示了欧盟与英国“支持战争”的立场，并重申匈牙利的首要任务是避免被卷入冲突。

欧盟团结挑战：他与普京会晤、绕过欧盟决策体系的举动，被部分欧盟领袖视为对“反俄统一战线”的挑衅。主张扩大欧盟对乌克兰军事援助的批评者指责欧尔班，利用自己的“和平使命”来谋取国内政治利益，并为战后的匈牙利争取有利地位。

否决权策略：欧尔班充分运用匈牙利在欧盟需全体一致表决事务上的否决权，如外交与乌克兰入盟议题，以推进自己的和平议程。

对全球和平运动的影响

在国际舞台上，欧尔班不仅是和平调解者，也是一位将“和平优先”置于外交核心的领导人。

●与特朗普结盟：欧尔班与特朗普密切合作，推动召开俄乌和平峰会，并可能由布达佩斯主办。若此事成真，欧尔班将成为特朗普与普京之间的重要中间人；若和平协议得以诞生，这将为长期低迷的全球和平运动注入强心剂。

●外交行动：欧尔班频繁展开高调外交活动，往往未谘询过欧盟，以宣扬自己的和平愿景。例如参与中东和平峰会，并以此证明匈牙利的外交影响力正在提升。

批评者认为，欧尔班是“唱反调者”与“破坏者”，以和平运动为掩护推行“主权至上”的外交政策，优先维护匈牙利国家利益并保持与地缘政治上巨头俄罗斯的关系。而他能在特朗普主政期间，为匈牙利争取到美国对俄能源制裁的临时豁免，更让这种批评有了依据。然而，无可否认的是——欧尔班以“和平为名”的使命，既是匈牙利的国家战略，也符合全球和平运动的长远利益。

林德宜《2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主？》原文：Nobel Peace Prize Winner for 2026?

Amongst European and world leaders, the name of Viktor Orbán, the Prime Minister of Hungary, seldom appears in the mainstream media, especially the English language dominated by news agencies from the US, Britain and their allies that play a key role in
shaping and influencing public opinion on geopolitical developments. This also includes the Chinese media.

When it does appear, it is invariably in a negative or dismissive way as someone who is an authoritarian figure, a disruptive force, and an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Not surprisingly, Orban’s latest visit to Washington DC and meeting with US President, Donald Trump, has received the customary critical coverage, despite its potential importance in helping bring a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine-Russia war.

That the Hungarian leader is an under-rated figure in global politics is evident from his standing with Trump. During an earlier meeting at Mar-a-Lago in March 2024 before his inauguration, Trump told a crowd: “There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orbán. He’s fantastic.” At that time Trump was making reference to Orban’s domestic politics which the Republican party had drawn inspiration for its anti-immigration and LGBTQ positioning.

For his current visit, President Donald Trump said it was an "honor to have a friend of mine here" at the White House and repeatedly praised him as a “great leader....He's done a fantastic job. He's a very powerful man within his country ... He's run a really great country, and he's got no crime, he's got no problems, like some countries do.”
(https://youtu.be/SCNRgfCIufY?si=c2vmGyMgbZ9mWXPb)

Trump was clearly drawing attention to his own domestic problems in the US whilst praising Orban. But he was also signalling his intention to forge even closer ties with a political leader whose stance on the conflict in Europe converges with his own, and who Trump expects to play a key role in European geopolitics and future post conflict developments.

Trump And Orban Solidarity On Russia-Ukraine War

Key takeaways from the joint press conference of the two leaders following their White House meeting on 7th November are

● Shared Goal of Peace: Both leaders emphasized their commitment to ending the war. Orbán reaffirmed his support for Trump's efforts to bring the conflict to an end.
● Skepticism on Ukraine's Victory: When asked whether Ukraine could win the war, Orbán stated that "miracles can happen". He previously told Trump that Ukraine cannot militarily defeat Russia, which is a "strong country" that "wins through war."
● Trump's Role: Trump repeated his view that the war "should never have happened" and indicated it would have ended quickly if he had been president at the time.
● Hungary's Position: Orbán stressed that Hungary's priority is peace, partly because it shares a border with Ukraine. He stated that the US and Hungary were two of the few clear "pro-peace" voices, contrasting with other nations and the EU which he
claimed still insist Ukraine can win on the battlefield.

In essence, the press conference highlighted a united front between the two leaders on the necessity of a peace deal, while also underscoring Hungary's unique position—a NATO member maintaining close ties with Russia.

Orban: Pressing For Peace

Supporters of the peace movement around the world have long recognized the important role that Orban has played in refusing to go along with the EU majority seeking a military victory over Russia since the beginning of the war.

He has been a leading voice for an immediate ceasefire and peace negotiations in the war. He has also singlehandedly obstructed the escalation of the war.

Ukraine Conflict Stance: Orbán has consistently refused to supply weapons to Ukraine or allow their transfer across Hungarian territory. He has repeatedly blocked or delayed EU decisions on aid packages and sanctions against Russia, arguing that the EU is prolonging the war by supporting military action. He has also exposed the "pro-war" stance of the dominant member states of the EU and Britain whilst reaffirming Hungary's priority to remain out of the conflict.

EU Unity Challenge: His actions, such as his meetings with Putin and his attempts to bypass EU decision-making structures, have been criticized by some EU leaders as a direct challenge to the bloc's unified front against Russia. Critics favouring the expansion of EU military support to Ukraine have accused him of using his "peace mission" for domestic political gain and to secure a favorable position for Hungary post-conflict.

Veto Power: His use of Hungary’s veto power in areas requiring unanimity, like foreign policy and EU accession for Ukraine has been applied to leverage his peace agenda.

Impact on Global Peace Movement

On the world stage, Orbán has played a role as a mediator and leader who prioritizes peaceful solutions.

● Alignment with Donald Trump: Orbán has closely aligned himself with Trump, advocating for a Russian-Ukrainian peace summit, potentially to be hosted in Budapest. Should that take place, he will position himself as a key interlocutor between Trump and Putin. Should a peace settlement emerge, this will provide a shot in the arm for the global peace movement that has long been moribund.

● Diplomatic Actions: He has engaged in various high-profile diplomatic meetings—often without consulting his EU partners—to promote his vision for peace, including a visit to the Middle East peace summit, which he has cited as proof of Hungary's growing diplomatic role.

Orbán's role has been described by critics as that of a contrarian and spoiler who has used the peace movement to pursue a sovereignist foreign policy that prioritizes Hungary's national interests and maintains relations with the geopolitical giant of Russia. The fact that he was able to secure for Hungary a temporary waiver on the US sanctions imposed on Russian gas and oil by Trump indicates that his detractors may be right. But there can be little doubt that Orban’s mission of peace to ensure Hungary’s national interest is also in the interest of the global peace movement