随著美国总统特朗普即将出席在吉隆坡举行的东盟峰会，时间一天天逼近，区域社交媒体上反对他到来的声浪却持续升温。值得注意的是，这些反对声并未被主流媒体，尤其是西方媒体视为值得报导的新闻。
许多东盟社交媒体评论者呼吁撤回对特朗普的邀请，原因综合了历史先例、当前的经济与地缘政治焦虑，以及对其政治风格与政策的拒斥。这些顾虑可分为以下几个关键层面：
一、严重而多层面的经济冲击
特朗普的关税战无疑是对东盟中短期经济前景最具威胁的外部因素。尽管东盟内部挑战不少，但美国主导的全球贸易战是一场规模庞大的外生冲击，足以压过内部矛盾，成为区域发展的主要负面动因。
·供应链断裂：东盟在全球供应链中扮演关键节点，特别是在电子、汽车与纺织业。许多产品横跨东盟、中国、其他亚洲与欧洲多地生产，零件多次跨境流通。特朗普的关税措施打乱了这个复杂网络，使生产成本上升、物流更混乱。
·生产成本增加：企业被迫以更高成本进口零组件，利润被挤压，并被迫以高成本且仓促地重组供应链。
·全球与区域放缓：国际货币基金与世界银行已下修全球成长预测。全球经济疲软意味著东盟出口需求下降、收入减少、财政压力上升、失业率提高与贫困恶化。
·商品价格波动：不确定性导致全球商品价格剧烈波动，直接冲击东盟的农业领域与乡村人口。
二、对破坏性与“让美国再次伟大”式外交的忧虑
东盟运作核心在于共识与中立，强调低调、稳健的外交方式，避免公开对抗，维持大国之间的平衡。
·特朗普的扰乱风格：评论者指出，他过往在G7与北约等国际场合公然斥责盟友、否定多边主义，偏好双边交易式谈判。他可能藉峰会之机：
公开施压个别领袖，要求缩小贸易逆差或加强安全承诺；
迫使各国在“挺美或挺中”之间选边站，这正是东盟极力回避的两难；
打乱峰会声明中精心协调的共识语言。
·不敬与漠视的印象：特朗普在上次任内多次缺席东盟相关会议，令外界觉得他对东盟及其领袖毫不重视。如今再度邀请他，被视为对这种傲慢态度的奖励。
三、损害东盟的核心地位与凝聚力
“东盟中心地位”是东盟外交政策的基石。这意味著东盟应主导区域政治架构与议程。因此，东盟一直对美国推动的反中机制如“四方安全对话（QUAD）”与
“澳英美三方安全伙伴关系”（AUKUS）保持戒心。
·削弱整体谈判力：特朗普偏好单边主义，倾向与各国逐一打交道，这直接削弱东盟作为集体的影响力。
·制造内部分裂：观察者担心他会利用南中国海等既有争端，在东盟内挑拨离间，以符合美国利益，最终破坏区域团结。
四、对不可预测议程的疑虑
与传统政治领袖不同，特朗普的议程往往带有强烈个人色彩且难以预测。这不仅是外国政府与盟友的共识，也为美国国内反对派所认同。
·聚焦抱怨而非合作：外界担心他此行并非为讨论区域间如何在气候变迁、数码经济或基建等方面的合作，而是用来发泄对贸易的不满、寻求政治支持、甚至发动对中国的新口头攻击。
·“特朗普秀”风险：峰会恐被他个人言行、争议与对立占据焦点，掩盖东盟自身的议题与优先事项。
五、意识形态与价值观上的抵触
东南亚的公民社会与受过良好教育的年轻世代，普遍认同自由民主的价值观。但同时，他们也反对任何外部势力干预这些价值在本地社会中的具体呈现方式，更拒绝外来力量以自身标准强行将这些价值套用于其他社会。
·“特朗普主义”的负面形象：“特朗普主义”这一政治品牌，与一系列在上述群体中极不受欢迎的政策与言论紧密相连。
·气候变迁否认：对越南、菲律宾、印尼等受灾严重的东盟国家而言尤为反感。
·独裁倾向：特朗普对强人政治的赞扬，被视为削弱区域民主与人权进展。
·分裂性言论：他在种族、宗教与移民议题上的发言，违背东南亚多元共存的特质。
·正当化争议人物：邀请特朗普被视为替破坏全球稳定与民主规范的政治人物背书。他们不希望自己的地区成为特朗普展现政治主导力或任何新形式美国霸权的舞台。
六、美国本土政治脉络
此次邀请并非发生在政治真空中。
·法律缠讼：特朗普目前涉及多宗刑事与民事案件，部分评论者认为，对如此争议人物发出国家级邀请并不妥当。
·政治动荡：邀请一位质疑美国选举制度合法性、并欲在拉丁美洲多国采取军事行动的领袖，恐将美国内外政治决策不稳定性带入东盟峰会。
结论：价值与风格的冲突
总结来说，撤回邀请的呼声源于“东盟方式”与“特朗普方式”之间的根本冲突。前者强调共识、低调外交、中立与制度建设；后者则倾向交易、单边、对抗与个人化。
对社交媒体上的评论者与反对此次访问的人而言，特朗普象征著政治上的不稳定、对制度规范的蔑视，以及在中美对抗中被迫选边的困境——而这正是东盟（除一两个成员国外）极力避免被卷入的局面，同时，特朗普也是“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）口号下美国霸权的新表现。因此他们认为，特朗普的出席可能会：
●削弱东盟的凝聚力与中心地位；
●将峰会焦点从区域合作转向美中地缘对抗；
●正当化一种危及区域稳定的外交风格。
因此，这些批评者认为，拒邀特朗普并非反美行动，而是保护东盟原则与利益的必要自卫。
然而现实是，特朗普的到来几乎不可能取消。若撤回邀请，对东盟而言无异于外交自杀。更务实的策略，是敦促特朗普以建设性方式参与，支持区域和平与永续发展，并限制美国对东盟成员的经济与外交霸凌行径。
近期一个正面例子，是泰国与柬埔寨之间新一轮武装冲突的停火协议。这项成果源自多方协调努力，其中我国首相安华扮演了重要角色，担任主要调解人以及两方签署协议的东道主；而特朗普，据一些消息来源指出，则在幕后施加外交与经济压力，促使双方最终同意停火。＊
至于东盟自身，应趁此次峰会探讨在当前美中贸易冲突中担任调解者的可能性。虽然东盟的首要任务仍是保护自身经济免受贸易战波及、并强化区域内部韧性，但东盟的行动与战略地位，仍可借由间接路径，影响更广泛的谈判格局，为目前正面临特朗普“关税火炮”压力的成员国创造有利的转圜空间。
＊特朗普及其支持者在提名他竞逐诺贝尔和平奖时声称，他“阻止了七、八场战争”。“七场”是他在联合国大会等场合常重复的数字，其中便包括他在近期泰柬冲突中的调停角色。
林德宜〈闯入瓷器店里的公牛：特朗普出席东盟峰会〉原文：President Trump At ASEAN Summit: Bull In SoShop
With the clock ticking down on President Donald Trump’s attendance at the Asean summit meeting being held in Kuala Lumpur shortly, opposition to the invitation has intensified in the regional social media, although none of the mainstream media especially from the West has seen it newsworthy to report on this opposition.
The call from many ASEAN social media commentators for the bloc to withdraw its invitation to Trump stem from a mix of historical precedent, current economic and geopolitical anxieties, and a rejection of his political style and policies.
These concerns can be discerned in several key areas:
1. Significant and Multifaceted Adverse Economic Impacts
Trump’s tariff war is arguably the most potent and immediate threat to ASEAN's near-to-medium-term economic outlook. While internal challenges are significant, the US-driven global trade war would be an exogenous shock of a magnitude that could easily overshadow them and become the dominant negative factor for the region's development.
· Broken Links: ASEAN is a critical node in global supply chains, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and textiles. Many products are manufactured across ASEAN, China, other Asia and Europe with components crossing borders multiple times. Trump initiated tariffs have disrupted this complex network and made it more expensive and logistically chaotic.
· Increased Production Costs: Companies have to deal with higher costs for imported components, squeezing profit margins and forcing costly and rapid reconfigurations of their supply chains.
· Global and Regional Slowdown: The IMF and World Bank have downgraded global growth forecasts due to the trade war. A weaker global economy means less demand for ASEAN's exports, reduced earnings, greater fiscal challenges, rising unemployment and worsening of poverty in the region.
· Commodity Price Volatility: The uncertainty has led to fluctuations in global commodity prices, affecting key ASEAN agrarian sectors and rural populations.
2. Fear of Disruption and "MAGA" Diplomacy
ASEAN's central principle is consensus and neutrality. The bloc operates through careful, quiet diplomacy, avoiding public confrontation and maintaining a balance between major powers.
· Trump's Disruptive Style: Commentators point to his previous performances at international forums (like the G7 and NATO) where he openly berated allies, dismissed multilateralism, and prioritized bilateral transactional deals. They fear he would use the ASEAN summit as a stage to:
- Publicly pressure individual leaders on trade deficits or security commitments
- Force a binary "with us or against us" choice regarding China, which ASEAN fiercely resists
- Disrupt the carefully crafted, consensus-based language of the summit's final communiqué.
· Perception of Disregard and Disrespect: His past behavior, such as skipping key ASEAN-related meetings during his previous presidency, has left a perception that he does not value the member organisation or its leaders. Inviting him back is seen as rewarding this dismissive and arrogant attitude.
3. Damage to ASEAN's Centrality and Cohesion
"ASEAN Centrality" is the cornerstone of the bloc's foreign policy. This is the long held and repeatedly reaffirmed position that ASEAN should be the primary driving force for regional architecture and geopolitics. Hence ASEAN’s fear and rejection of anti China groupings such as QUAD and AUKUS which U.S. foreign policy makers have initiated to contain China in the Indo Pacific region.
· Undermining the Bloc: Trump's well-documented preference for unilateralism over multilateralism or even bilingualism is a direct threat to this concept. By dealing with countries one-on-one in the tariff war he is seen as weakening ASEAN's collective bargaining power.
· Creating Division: Commentators fear he will exploit existing divisions within ASEAN (e.g., between claimants and non-claimants in the South China Sea) to benefit the U.S., thereby fracturing the unity that is essential for the bloc's survival and relevance.
4. Concerns Over a Volatile and Unpredictable Agenda
Unlike a traditional political leader, Trump's agenda is highly personal and unpredictable. This is the consensus not only of foreign governments and allies but also his domestic opposition in the U.S.
· Focus on Grievances, Not Cooperation: There is a concern that he is not coming to discuss regional cooperation on climate, digital economy, or infrastructure, or any of the region's concerns but to air threats and grievances about trade, demand support for his political narrative, or launch new verbal attacks on China.
· The "Trump Show": The summit could be hijacked and become about Trump himself - his statements, his controversies, his feuds - rather than about the substantive challenges and issues facing Southeast Asia. This diverts attention from ASEAN's own goals and priorities.
5. Ideological and Normative Opposition
Many in Southeast Asia's civil society and the educated youth are aligned with liberal democratic values. At the same time they are against any form of external pressure on how these values are manifested, and how outside forces may seek to impose their version on other societies.
· The "Trumpism" Brand: Trump's political brand is associated with policies and rhetoric that are unpopular with these segments.
· Climate Change Denial: This is a critical issue for vulnerable ASEAN nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia.
· Authoritarian Sympathies: His praise for strongmen and autocrats is seen as undermining democratic movements and human rights in the region.
· Divisive Rhetoric: His comments on race, religion, and immigration are viewed as contrary to the pluralistic character of many Southeast Asian societies.
· Legitimizing a Figure They Oppose: For these commentators, inviting Trump is seen as legitimizing a figure many view as a threat to global stability and democratic norms. They do not want their region to be a platform for his political dominance and any new form of American hegemony.
6. The Domestic U.S. Political Context
The invitation is not happening in a vacuum.
· Legal Troubles: Trump is currently a defendant in multiple criminal and civil cases. Some commentators argue that it is inappropriate to extend a state-level invitation to a figure facing such serious legal charges.
· Political Instability: Inviting a leader who continues to challenge the legitimacy of U.S. electoral institutions and is engaged in military action and acts of war against Venezuela and other neighbouring countries in Latin America is seen as injecting U.S. domestic and foreign policy political turmoil into the ASEAN summit.
Conclusion: A Clash of Values and Styles
In summary, the call to withdraw the invitation is a reaction to the profound mismatch between the "ASEAN Way" (consensus, quiet diplomacy, neutrality, institution-building) and the "Trump Way" (transactional, unilateral, confrontational, personality-driven).
For the social media commentators and opponents against the visit, Trump represents volatility, disrespect for institutional norms, a forced choice in the U.S.- China rivalry that Asean (with the exception of one or two member countries) would prefer not to be entangled in, and what is seen as the latest manifestation of American hegemony in MAGA. They believe his presence can :
● Undermine ASEAN's cohesion and centrality.
● Shift the focus from regional concerns and cooperation to U.S. politics and geopolitical confrontation with China.
● Legitimize a foreign policy and political style they find damaging to regional and global stability.
Therefore, they see disinviting him not as an act of hostility toward the United States, but as an act of protection for ASEAN's own interests and principles.
The reality facing opponents of Trump’s visit is that there is no way the visit will not take place. A disinvitation may be seen as diplomatic harakiri for ASEAN. Hence the better strategy is to encourage Trump to play a positive role in supporting the bloc's peaceful and sustainable development by curtailing American foreign policy and economic actions aimed at bullying and exploiting the organization’s member nations.
One recent positive example is in the most recent outbreak of armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The breakthrough ceasefire was the result of a coordinated effort. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim played the central role as the host and mediator, while Trump, according to some sources, is said to have applied diplomatic and economic pressure credited with pushing the parties to agree to a truce.*
On its part, ASEAN should also, at the summit, explore the possibility of playing a mediator role in the current U.S.- China trade conflict. Whilst ASEAN's primary focus should be on shielding its own economies from the collateral damage of the trade war and strengthening its own regional resilience, ASEAN actions and strategic importance can create important indirect pathways to influence the broader dynamic of deals that can benefit member countries now facing Trump’s tariff bazooka.
*Trump and his admirers claim he stopped seven or eight wars when proposing he should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Seven was a frequently cited number by Trump, particularly in the context of his claims at the U.N. General Assembly. This number includes his role in the recent Thailand - Cambodia conflict.
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