林德宜——特朗普关税：印度是大输家，中国是大赢家

特朗普正一手推动各国加速走向新世界秩序，一个与当前由美国及西方主导的世界秩序所不同。

当特朗普向美国民众夸耀他以关税作为“武器”实施交易型外交政策所获得的最新“战利品”时，受影响的国家已开始仔细检视自己被迫作出的让步。同时，这些国家的媒体与民众也在辩论本国谈判团队在维护国家利益方面是表现良好还是糟糕。他们也在悄悄准备如何反击这一前所未有的世界经济威胁。

就目前而言，特朗普最新一轮仍在升级中的单边关税措施，似乎对美国长期的盟友——包括亚洲国家——打击最重。

部分国家最新关税状况：

国家 现行税率 生效日期

加拿大 35% 2025年8月1日

欧盟 15% 2025年8月7日

日本 15% 2025年8月7日

韩国 15% 2025年8月7日

英国 10% 2025年8月7日

印度 50% 2025年8月7日

马来西亚 19% 2025年8月7日

印尼 19% 2025年8月7日

菲律宾 19% 2025年8月7日

越南 19% 2025年8月7日

主要让步／豁免／特殊条件

加拿大：符合《美墨加协议》（USMCA）的商品豁免；木材／乳制品面临250%关税威胁；转运处罚（40%＋罚金）；早前25%汽车关税部分暂停

欧盟：现行最惠国税率（MFN）≥15% 的商品免加征；航太产品豁免谈判中；预期有投资承诺

印度：未宣布任何豁免；无协议达成

日本：承诺采购美国商品；汽车关税暂停；已公布协议框架，细节待定

韩国：承诺在美国境内投资

英国：航太产品豁免；正式协议已签；在行业协议达成前适用基准税率

印尼：原先32%关税降低；协议包含未公开的投资条款

马来西亚：原先24%关税降低；已达成协议但细节未定

菲律宾：原先17%关税提高；承诺农产品采购；已达成协议但细节未定

越南：原先46%关税降低；承诺投资；已达成正式协议框架

谁是最大输家

根据目前资讯，印度将是新一轮美国关税的最大输家，因为其是所有国家中面对最严重的关税上调。对印度商品新加征25%关税，再加上原有的25%，总关税达到50%。此举是对印度持续购买俄罗斯石油的回应。分析人士警告，这一税率可能使印度对美出口缩减多达60%，并可能使印度国内生产总值（GDP）减少约1%。

加拿大同样面临高关税。凡不符合《美墨加协议》的产品将被征收40%的关税，这是一次重大上调，可能扰乱供应链。虽然高于欧盟、日本和韩国的税率，但仍低于印度的总税率。

欧盟、日本和韩国是美国的主要贸易伙伴与地缘政治盟友。三者均被征收15%的新关税，虽较早前大幅增加，但仍低于加拿大与印度。他们都成功与美国达成协议，将关税封顶在此水平，较先前面对的更高税率已有显著改善。然而，协议中附加的采购与投资条件——一些政治领袖称其为“勒索”——使得这些协议的代价远高于表面。

从更大的地缘政治视角看，美国可能才是最大的输家。特朗普与共和党团队声称，这是一次历史性机会，可以重置世界贸易与经济体系以利美国，包括增加美国联邦政府收入以应对长期赤字、迫使国内外企业将工厂迁回美国、以及逼使各国增加对美国商品与服务的进口。

然而，多数美国经济学家——不论主流还是进步派——都不同意关税对美国经济或消费者有净好处的说法。特朗普政府主张关税保护本国产业，但经济学界普遍认为，关税最终伤害美国经济。经济学家警告，关税成本主要由美国企业与消费者承担，将透过价格上涨与购买力下降体现出来。此外，关税还可能导致经济增长放缓、因缺乏竞争而降低效率与创新，以及在依赖进口或遭他国报复性关税的产业中造成就业流失。

地缘政治上的赢家

美国即便短期在贸易与财政收入上取得成果，关税战已使美国在地缘政治上遭受重大损失。

这些关税不但没有加强美国地位，反而使美国与欧洲及亚洲主要盟友的关系陷入紧张处境，这些盟友被视作经济对手，或至多是经济棋子。这种交易化的外交也侵蚀了美国与盟友之间的尊重、信任与合作，尤其是在抗衡中国、俄罗斯及其他被特朗普视为敌对国家的金砖国家。

美国关税导致了与加拿大、欧盟、墨西哥以及亚太地区国家关系疏远，并迫使他们支付巨额代价或寻找替代贸易伙伴，美国削弱了对其繁荣、主导权与战略利益至关重要的联盟。

总体而言，关税战不仅在经济与地缘政治上孤立了美国，也强化了中国作为贸易与地缘政治领导者的地位，同时削弱了美国的软实力与多边公信力。

林德宜《特朗普关税：印度是大输家，中国是大赢家》的原文：Trump Tariffs: India Biggest Loser, China Biggest Winner

Trump has single-handedly pushed countries closer towards a new world order that will be different from the present American and western dominated one.

As Trump brags to the American public about the latest loot from his transactional foreign policy using tariffs as his bazooka, impacted countries have begun to look closely at the concessions they have been compelled to make. Meanwhile their media and public are debating on whether their country's negotiating team has done well or badly in protecting the national interest. They are also quietly preparing on how they can fight back against this unprecedented threat to the world economy.

For now, the latest iteration of Trump’s still escalatory unilateral tariffs appears to be hurting long established U.S. allies - including in Asia - hardest.

Latest Tariff Status for Selected Countries

Country Current Rate Effective Date

Canada 35% August 1, 2025

European Union 15% August 7, 2025

Japan 15% August 7, 2025

South Korea 15% August 7, 2025

United Kingdom 10% August 7, 2025

India 50% August 7, 2025

Malaysia 19% August 7, 2025

Indonesia 19% August 7, 2025

Philippines 19% August 7, 2025

Vietnam 19% August 7, 2025

Key Concessions/Exemptions/Special Conditions

Canada- USMCA-compliant goods exempt; Lumber/dairy face 250% threat; Transshipment penalty (40% + fines); Previous 25% auto tariffs partially suspended 

EU - Goods with existing MFN ≥15% pay no extra; Aerospace exclusions under negotiation. Investment commitments expected

India - None announced; No deal reached

Japan - Commitment to purchase U.S. goods. Auto tariff suspension. Deal framework announced; details being finalized

South Korea - Investment commitments in the U.S. 

UK - Aerospace products exempted. Formal deal signed; baseline rate applies pending sector agreements 

India - None announced; No deal reached

Indonesia - Reduced from initial 32%. Agreement includes undisclosed investment terms

Malaysia - Reduced from initial 24%. Deal announced but details incomplete 

Philippines - Increased from initial 17%; Agricultural purchases pledged. Deal announced but details incomplete

Vietnam - Reduced from initial 46%; Investment commitments Formal deal framework in place 

Who's The Biggest Loser

Based on current information, India is poised to be the biggest loser from the new U.S. tariffs as it faces the most severe tariff increase among all countries. A new 25% tariff on Indian goods, on top of an existing 25% tariff, brings the total duty to 50%. This is a response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. Analysts have warned that the latest tariff rate could reduce India's outbound shipments to the U.S. by up to 60% and potentially shave off about 1% from its GDP.

Canada is also facing a high tariff rate. Products that do not comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are subject to a 40% tariff. This is a significant increase and could disrupt supply chains. While higher than the rates for the EU, Japan, and South Korea, it is lower than the total tariff India is facing.

EU, Japan, and South Korea are key U.S. trading partners and geopolitical allies. These three have been hit with a new tariff rate of 15%. While a substantial increase over earlier rates, it is a lower rate compared to Canada and India. All three have been able to secure trade deals that cap the tariffs at this rate, which is a significant improvement from the higher rates that were previously threatened. However the additional purchase and investment conditions imposed - extortions according to some of their political leaders - make the agreements much more costly than they appear to be.

Looking at the larger geopolitical picture, the U.S. could be the biggest loser from what Trump and his Republican team are asserting as their historic opportunity to reset the world trading - and economic - system to American advantage. Their claims made in relation to “Making America Great Again” include raising new federal revenue to address chronic deficits, pressuring domestic and international businesses to relocate their factories to the U.S., and compelling countries to increase their imports of American goods and services.

However, the great majority of U.S. economists - mainstream and progressive - disagree with the claim that tariffs are a net benefit to the American economy or consumer. While Trump's administration argues that tariffs protect domestic industries, economic consensus holds that tariffs ultimately harm the U.S. economy. Economists warn that the costs of tariffs are largely borne by American businesses and consumers through higher prices and reduced purchasing power. Furthermore, they contend that tariffs can lead to slower economic growth, decreased efficiency and innovation by shielding domestic companies from competition, as well as result in job losses in industries that rely on imported goods or are targeted by retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

Winner on the Geopolitical Front

Even if successful in the short run on the trade and revenue front, the tariff war has alienated allies and resulted in significant geopolitical losses for the U.S.

Rather than strengthening the U.S. position, these tariffs have strained relationships with key allies in Europe and Asia, who have been treated as economic adversaries or at best, economic pawns. This transactional approach to foreign policy has eroded respect, trust and cooperation, particularly within alliances designed to counter the rise of China, Russia and other BRIC countries identified by Trump as hostile enemies.

By alienating partners such as Canada. the EU, Mexico and countries in the Asia-Pacific region and forcing them to pay exorbitant sums or to seek alternative trade relationships, the U.S. has weakened the very coalitions that are crucial for its prosperity, dominance and strategic interests.

Overall, the tariff wars are not only isolating the U.S. economically and geopolitically. It has also strengthened China’s position as a rival trade and geopolitical leader while eroding American soft power and multilateral credibility.