林德宜——道琼和马股能跌多低：特朗普也无法告诉您

在经历了动荡的一周后，道琼斯指数进入调整区域，较之前的高点下跌了10%，那些大量投资美股的人，尤其是马来西亚特朗普支持者都希望这轮的下跌是暂时的。

随著乌克兰停战协议新闻热度取代了关税新闻，上周五美国股市迎来了反弹，收复了部分跌幅，也提振了投资者的梦想。然而这会是一次死猫反弹，还是反映最糟糕时期已经过去，美国市场可以恢复2023年以来的多头市场和成长轨迹。

“我们将开始一个收入飙升的新时代，”美国总统特朗普在10月的一次集会上说道。

“财富暴涨。数以百万计的新就业机会和生气蓬勃中产阶级将带来前所未有的繁荣。”

道琼指数会强力反弹吗？

市场空头不认为特朗普是正确的，也不认为任何救济措施是可持续的。许多人担心最糟糕的情况尚未到来。首先，市场动荡和下跌是由于不确定特朗普将透过关税和其他经济政策让美国经济承受多少痛苦，以期按照特朗普意愿重塑国家和世界，这一点几乎没有任何分歧。

其次，没有任何迹象显示特朗普会放弃所发起的关税战。他也不排除关税战引发经济衰退的可能性。

当特朗普上福克斯新闻频道“周日早晨谈未来”访谈节目时，他为对墨西哥和加拿大进口商品征收25%的关税进行了辩护，该关税导致股市因贸易战担忧而暴跌。当被问及是否会在2025年面对经济衰退时，特朗普回应道：“我讨厌预测这样的事情。（在政策转变过程中）有一个过渡期，因为我们正在做的事情非常庞大。我们正在把财富带回美国。”

他强调，这是一件大事。这需要一点时间。

特朗普也对企业投资决策时寻求稳定的担忧置之不理。他说，“多年来，全球主义者、大型全球主义者一直在剥削美国”，而现在，“我们所做的就是取回一部份，我们将公平对待我们的国家。”

在特朗普关于关税的媒体言辞之下，隐藏著更深层的政治和战略考量，这表明关税和贸易关系可能只是他向世界（包括盟友）发射的第一枚“火箭炮”，以将财富带回美国。

特朗普关税和贸易政策 政治和战略

特朗普关税战政策与他欲透过“美国优先”政策让美国再次伟大的竞选承诺有关。这种民粹主义和民族主义议程不仅迎合了他的国内政治基础，也吸引了民主党选民的支持，这些选民因全球化和拜登政策下工作不保而感到被边缘化。

特朗普在所有七个摇摆州（包括农业州和工业州）的选举中获胜证明了他成功把其经济政策讯息传达出去。在第一任总统期间与中国的关税战中，特朗普透过增加农业补贴来应对美国大豆遭报复性关税反击，这场关税战不利于美国农民。

预计这将成为特朗普未来部署的反击武器之一。

关税战政策背后的战略是一项长期计划，旨在减少美国对其他国家的长期贸易逆差。据报导，2024年美国贸易逆差达到创纪录的1.2兆美元／约5.3兆令吉，这是连续第四次贸易逆差超过1兆美元／4.42兆令吉，也是近八年来贸易逆差第六次增加。

截至2025年1月，美国贸易赤字伙伴国，排名前列的国家，包括为首的中国（逆差2954亿美元）、欧盟（2356亿美元）、墨西哥（1718亿美元）、越南（1235亿美元）、爱尔兰（867亿美元）、德国（848亿美元）、日本（685亿美元）、韩国（660亿美元）、加拿大（633亿美元）、印度（457亿美元）、泰国（456亿美元）、意大利（440亿美元）、瑞士（385亿美元）和马来西亚（248亿美元）。

所有这些国家，包括澳洲等对美国贸易有逆差的国家，很快也会面对关税和贸易关系的重新谈判，特朗普的目标在某种程度上是为美国牟取利益，但许多人认为这是一种变相勒索。特朗普的关税战会对马来西亚经济造成多大的伤害，目前尚无法预测，但肯定会产生不利影响。

更令人担忧的是，特朗普以“让美国再次伟大”为基础建构的新国际经济秩序所带来之影响。他偏好单边行动而非多边合作；他拒绝全球框架与协议（如世贸组织的争端机制）；以及他采取直接、往往具有对抗性的手段来维护美国利益，并在全球经济与政治上确立美国的优势。

道琼与马股会跌多深？

如果全球经济衰退的最坏情况成真——这是特朗普不排除的可能性——我们可以预期道琼指数将从目前的4万1488点（2025年3月14日）进一步大幅下跌。

过往经验表明，严重且未解决的关税战，加上经济衰退压力，可能导致道琼指数从高点下跌30–50%。但如果采取积极的货币／财政干预、企业适应调整，以及特朗普部分让步，跌幅可能被限制在20–30%，使指数回落至3万2000点左右。

马来西亚投资者应密切关注即将到来的贸易谈判，以判断美国及全球市场将下探至何种程度。

林德宜《道琼和马股能跌多低：特朗普也无法告诉您》原文：How Low Can Dow Jones and KLSE Go: Trump Cannot Tell

I hate to predict things……There is a period of transition……because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America……I think it should be great. It's going to be great. 

Trump Won’t Rule Out On Recession: Fox Live Interview, 10 March 2025

After a tumultuous week in which the Dow Jones (DJ) index entered correction territory - a ten percent drop from its previous high - those heavily invested, especially US president Trump's supporters in Malaysia are hoping that the fall is temporary.

Their dreaming has been buoyed by last Friday’s rally with stocks clawing back some of their steep losses as tariff related headlines took second place to the Ukraine truce agreement dominated news. Was this a dead cat bounce or a signal that the worst is over, and the US market can resume its bull run and trajectory of growth ongoing since 2023.

“We will begin a new era of soaring incomes,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in October.

“Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.” 

Is the Dow Jones Index Coming Back

Market bears do not think that Trump is right or that any relief is sustainable. Many fear the worst is yet to come. Firstly there is little or no disagreement that the market turbulence and fall is a result of uncertainty about how much pain Trump will let the US economy endure through tariffs and other economic policies in his attempt to reshape the country and world as he wants.

Secondly, Trump has not given any indication that he will back down from the tariff war that he has launched. He has also not ruled out the possibility of a recession arising from the tariff war.

When asked in an interview with Fox News Channel’s "Sunday Morning Futures," Trump defended imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada that had sent markets tumbling over concerns of a trade war. When questioned whether he was expecting a
recession in 2025, Trump responded: "I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America.

That's a big thing." He then added, "It takes a little time. It takes a little time."

Trump has also brushed aside concerns from businesses seeking stability as they make investment decisions. He said that "for years the globalists, the big globalists have been ripping off the United States" and that now, "all we’re doing is getting some of it back, and we’re going to treat our country fairly."

Beneath Trump's media rhetoric on his tariff bazooka are larger political and strategic considerations that indicate that tariffs and trade relations may just be the first bazooka that he will fire at the rest of the world - including at his allies - to bring wealth back to America.

Political and Strategic Reasons Explaining Trump Tariff and Trade Policy

The key political reason behind Trump's tariff war policy relates to his campaign promise of making America great again through an “American first” policy. This populist and nationalist agenda not only panders to his domestic political base. It has also attracted support from Democrat voters who have felt marginalized by globalization and Biden’s policies that have failed to protect their jobs.

The fact that Trump’s economic messaging has been successful is attested by his election win in all seven battleground swing states, including farming and industrial states. In the tariff war with China during his first administration, Trump was able to counter the backlash of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans that hurt farmers by increasing agricultural subsidies.

Expect this to be part of the defensive weaponry that Trump will deploy in the coming days.

The strategic reasoning behind the tariff war policy is a longer term offensive plan aimed at reducing America's chronic trade deficit with other countries. According to reports, the 2024 US trade deficit was a record $1.2 trillion, marking the fourth consecutive trade deficit above $1 trillion and the sixth increase in the last eight years.

At the end of January 2025, the US was in the red on trade (in billions of dollars US) with the top countries being China ($295.4), European Union ($235.6), Mexico ($171.8), Vietnam ($123.5), Ireland ($86.7), Germany ($84.8), Taiwan ($73.9), Japan ($68.5), South Korea ($66.0), Canada ($63.3), India ($45.7), Thailand ($45.6), Italy ($44.0), Switzerland ($38.5) and Malaysia ($24.8).

All these countries including those such as Australia that have a trade deficit in the favour of the US will soon see a renegotiation of tariff and trade relationships aimed at extracting or extorting (as many are seeing it) gains for the US in one way or another. How badly Malaysia's economy will be hurt by Trump’s tariff war is not predictable but there will definitely be adverse effects.

Even more worrying are the impacts of Trump's new world international economic order based on making America great again; his unilateral action over multilateral cooperation; his rejection of global frameworks and agreements (e.g., WTO disputes); and his arsenal of direct, often confrontational measures to assert U.S. interests and superiority on global economics and politics.

How Low Can DJ and KLSE Go

If worse case expectations of a global recession come about - a possibility which Trump has not rejected - we can expect the Dow to fall very much more from its current level of 41,488 reached on14 March 2025.

Past experience indicates that a severe, unresolved tariff war combined with recessionary forces could push the Dow down 30–50% from peak levels. Proactive monetary/fiscal intervention, corporate adaptability, and a partial Trump retreat might cap losses closer to 20–30%. This will place the index at the 32,000 level. Malaysian investors should closely monitor the coming trade negotiations for signals on how far south the US and global markets will go.