林德宜：电动汽车之战——战斗已经开始

“如果没有建立贸易壁垒，他们（中国电动汽车制造商）几乎​​会摧毁世界上大多数其他汽车公司。他们非常优秀。"”
～特斯拉汽车公司首席执行员埃隆·马斯克

汽车和汽车制造相关领域之争已进入另一个重要时刻。尤其汽车制造在世界工业体系中的重要性不容小觑。

美国、英国、一些欧盟国家、日本和韩国的汽车制造业为这些国家的经济增长和繁荣做出了巨大贡献。除了直接就业的数千万人外，还有更多的人从事供应链和相关服务。汽车制造行业是国家税收基础的重要组成部分，也是公民生活水平的关键指标。

自汽车制造业诞生以来，该行业一直以内燃机 (ICE) 为主。然而，电动汽车 (EV) 的发展速度出乎意料地快，让垄断内燃机汽车生产的国家措手不及，更彻底改变了汽车行业。

自2010年后推出以来，电动汽车在汽车行业中的增长非常惊人。如今，电动汽车的销量增长速度更快。由于多种原因，电动汽车的销量预计将比预期更快超过内燃机汽车。

电动汽车相对于内燃机汽车优势

首先，电动汽车和内燃机汽车之间的价格差距已经缩小，在某些市场已经持平。其次，汽车制造商现在被迫提供更省油的汽车，而电动汽车在这方面具有巨大的优势。据估计，电动汽车可将高达91%的能源转化为电能，而内燃机汽车只能转化约12%至30%。对于购车者来说，最重要的因素可能是电动汽车的总拥有成本较低，燃料和维护成本降低带来的节省超过了拥车前期的高成本。

今天，我们目睹了以前占主导地位的内燃机汽车制造国为此与电动汽车展开了争夺战。这也成为地缘政治中最重要的战场之一。之所以，是因为中国是电动汽车领域的世界领导者。

过去十年，中国已成为全球最大的电动汽车市场，占据全球电动乘用车销量的一半，占电动公交车和卡车销量的90%以上。

令西方和其他主要内燃机汽车制造国无法接受的是，中国生产了全球三分之二的电动汽车，占全球销量的三分之二，并且还是电动汽车电池的世界领先者，而电池是电动汽车成本的重要组成部分。中国电动汽车在软件、设计和整体质量方面的创新进一步增强了其市场竞争力。

也许最能说明中国在全球汽车行业中占据突出地位的统计数据是——令日本、西方及其盟友的反华政客和政策制定者感到担忧的是——中国取代日本成为世界领先的汽车出口国。根据日本汽车工业协会发布的数据，2023年，日本出口了442万辆汽车。而根据中国汽车工业协会 (CAAM) 的数据，中国出口了491万辆汽车。

区域战场战略

事实上，为消除这一中国"威胁"而展开的攻势早在几年前就开始了。如今，已经演变成一场无所顾忌的政治、经济和媒体宣传战，以确保内燃机汽车在世界汽车行业的主导地位保持不变；中国的电动汽车，无论其在环境影响方面比基于化石燃料的内燃机汽车具有什么优势和明显优势，都被拉低了。

我们看到的是三种不同的区域战略的出现——所有这些都表明了政治和经济的不可分割性。美国最初采取的第一个政策是拜登政府试图通过降低污染物标准来减缓美国汽车制造商的变化速度。随后，就是提高对中国电动汽车和电池的关税，尽管知道这会减缓美国要达到的清洁空气和零排放目标。特朗普当选后，中国电动汽车和其他出口到美国的商品将进一步面对高关税壁垒策略。

在欧洲，尽管欧洲的政策策略声称希望避免与中国发生贸易战，但还是采取了类似的高关税壁垒做法，尽管马赛地、宝马、保时捷和奥迪等欧洲汽车制造商在中国市场获得20多年的高利润，并且依赖这些利润来维持运营，这也使欧洲关税壁垒做法变得复杂。欧盟目前暂停对中国电动汽车征收额外关税，因为欧洲内燃机制造商正在与本国政府谈判，不要效仿美国的做法。他们提醒说，反华电动汽车政策是一场零和游戏，对欧洲的伤害将大于对中国的伤害。

另一个区域参与者是日本，根据日产前董事长卡洛斯·戈恩的说法，汽车行业的两大巨头——本田和日产——最近宣布了合并计划，以应对转型后的汽车行业挑战，这是在日本强大的国际贸易部的要求下进行的。虽然日本计划没有具体提到中国，但显然旨在整合两家公司强大的技术专长和金融资源，以应对中国电动汽车发展带来的动荡。

由于传统汽车制造商当前主导地位，其与中国电动汽车在区域和全球竞争，对中国以外的亚洲汽车消费者带来怎样影响，目前尚不完全清楚。但如果这场争夺战带来更便宜、更清洁、质量更高、维护成本更低的汽车，那么亚洲和世界其他地区的大多数消费者，无论政治意识形态如何，都会欢迎这样的竞争，无论这些汽车来自哪个国家。

林德宜《电动汽车之战：战斗已经开始》原文：
EV War: The Battle Is On

"If there are no trade barriers established, they [Chinese EV manufacturers] will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world. They're extremely good."
Elon Musk, C.E.O. of Tesla Motors

Another key page is being written in the battle over car and related vehicular manufacturing.

The importance of automotive manufacturing in the world industrial system cannot be underestimated.

Car manufacturing in the United States, United Kingdom, some European Union countries, Japan and South Korea have contributed substantially to the economic growth and prosperity of these countries. In addition to the tens of millions directly employed, a larger number work in the supply chain and related services. The industry is an important component of the taxable base of countries as well as a key indicator of the standard of living of the citizenry.

Ever since its origin, the industry has been dominated by the use of internal combustion engines (ICEs). However, in an unanticipated and extraordinarily rapid development which has caught nations monopolizing ICE vehicle production with their pants down, electric vehicles (EV) have transformed the automotive industry.

Since their early market introduction after 2010, the growth of the EV component of the car industry has been spectacular. Today, EV sales are growing even more rapidly. They are now expected to overtake ICE sales sooner than expected for several reasons.

Advantages of EVs over ICEs

Firstly the price gap between EVs and ICEs has closed and is at parity in some markets already. Secondly, car manufacturers are now compelled by the latest fuel efficiency standards to offer more fuel-efficient vehicles of which EVs have a tremendous advantage. It is estimated that EVs convert up to 91% of energy into power, while ICEs only convert about 12% to 30%. Perhaps the most important factor for car buyers is the lower total cost of EV ownership with the savings from lower fuel and maintenance costs outweighing any higher upfront cost.

Today, we are witnessing a scramble amongst previously dominant ICE manufacturing countries to adjust to this. This adjustment development has become one of the most important battlefields in geopolitics. It is taking place simply because the world's leader in EVs is China.

Over the past decade, China has become the world's largest EV market, commanding half of the global sales of electric passenger cars and over 90% of the sales of electric buses and trucks.

What's unacceptable to the West and other major ICE manufacturing countries is that China produces two thirds of the world's EVs, accounts for just as much of global sales and is also the world's leader in EV batteries which make up a significant component of EV cost. The marketability of Chinese EVs is further reinforced by their innovations in software, design and increasingly, in overall quality.

Perhaps the most telling and worrying statistical evidence of the prominence of China in the global automotive industry - worrying, that is, for anti China politicians and policy makers in Japan, the West and its allies - is China's displacement of Japan as the world's leading car
exporter. In 2023, Japan exported 4.42 million vehicles according to data released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association.This compared with the 4.91 million vehicles shipped from China, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).

Regional Battlefield Strategies

The offensive to take down this Chinese 'threat' in fact began several years ago. Today it has morphed into a no holds barred politics plus economics plus media propaganda war to ensure that the dominance of ICEs in the world's automotive industry remains intact; and
China's EVs, whatever their advantages and clear superiority over fossil based ICEs on their environmental impact, are pulled down.

What we are seeing is the emergence of three distinct regional strategies - all showing the inseparability of politics and economics. The first adopted initially by the US saw the Biden administration attempt to slow down the rate of change by US based auto manufacturers by lowering pollutant standards.This was followed by the ramping up of tariffs on China EVs and batteries despite the knowledge that it would slow down the nation's clean air and zero emissions targets. Trump's election will see a further use of the high tariff wall strategy on Chinese EV and other exports to the US.

In Europe, the policy strategy, while claiming to want to avoid a trade war with China, has followed a similar high tariff wall approach although this has been complicated by the highly profitable position that European car manufacturers such as Mercedes Benz, BMW, Porsche
and Audi have enjoyed in China for over 20 years, and are still reliant on to stay afloat and support their bottom line. The EUs tariffs are currently on hold as European ICE manufacturers negotiate with their own governments not to follow the US example. They are
reminding that an anti China EV policy is a zero sum game that will hurt Europe more than China.

The last of the regional players to emerge is Japan where according to Carlos Ghosn, the ex-chairman of Nissan, the two giants of the car industry - Honda and Nissan - recently announced consolidation, and possibly merger, plans to meet the challenges of a transformed automotive industry at the behest of the country's powerful Ministry of International Trade The discussion, while not specifying China, clearly aims at bringing together the formidable technological expertise and financial resources of the two companies, to survive the turbulence generated by China's EV progress.

What the regional and global battles will mean for car buyers in Asia outside China is not fully clear yet because of the historic and current dominance of legacy car manufacturers in this part of the world. But if this battle results in cheaper, cleaner, higher quality, and less
costly to maintain vehicles, then most consumers, in Asia and other parts of the world, regardless of politics, will welcome it, irrespective of which country the cars come from.