林德宜：伊朗战争的赔偿问题

战争损害赔偿法的原则规定，凡对国际不法行为负有责任的国家——例如发动非法战争——必须对其造成的损害作出全面赔偿。

参考依据：2001年国际法委员会（ILC）《国家对国际不法行为责任条款》（ARSIWA）第1、31、34及35条。

在日本首相高市早苗访美记者会上，美国总统特朗普受记者询及：“为什么在攻击伊朗之前，你没有告知欧洲、亚洲以及日本等美国盟友？”

特朗普回答说：“有些事是你不想透露太多的，你知道的，当我们出手时，我们出手非常猛烈。我们没有告诉任何人，因为我们想要出其不意。还有谁比日本更懂得什么是突袭？你们为什么没有说偷袭珍珠港之事？”

二战期间，日本对美国夏威夷珍珠港海军基地的偷袭，造成2390名美国人死亡，美国在翌日即对日本宣战。时任总统罗斯福称这一天为“一个耻辱的日子”。

然而，特朗普没有强调的是，这次袭击不仅是一场战争行为，而且是在伊朗与美国仍处于谈判之中、试图解决美国对伊朗核能力关切之际发动的。

战争赔偿

从历史先例与国际法角度来看，遭受“突袭”的一方，例如第二次世界大战期间日本与德国所发动的突袭，有权提出赔偿要求。伊朗在这个问题上的立场，很可能成为战后最重要的议题之一。

截至2026年3月，伊朗总统佩泽什基安已要求美国与以色列支付战争赔偿和提供不再发动侵略的保证，作为结束战争的核心条件。

此外，由于美以使用巴林与阿联酋的领土作为空袭基地，伊朗亦要求这两国作出赔偿，理由是其行为违反国际法，并造成伊朗的“物质与精神损害”。

战争损害与伤亡的初步估算（2026年3月中旬）

根据国际法，赔偿通常包括原状恢复、金钱补偿和不再重犯的保证。

虽然伊朗最终的全面赔偿总额要等到​​战争结束后才能确定，但以下数据，包括美国和以色列官方来源提供的每日轰炸影响评估数据，可以大致表明伊朗可索取的赔偿规模。

平民与财产直接损害

这一类别涵盖了冲突造成的财产损失和人员伤亡，这些都是战争索赔的核心。从报告显示损失极为严重，但具体数字因来源而异。

报告的损失类别、估算和来源

1.受损民用建筑
4万2914栋建筑（伊朗红新月会）
2万2000栋建筑（联合国国际移民组织）

2.受损建筑分类
3万6489间民宅
6179个商业设施（伊朗红新月会官方数据）
单在德黑兰，就有1万间房屋受损（阿纳多卢通讯社）

3.平民伤亡
超过1245人死亡；超过1万2000人受伤。依据美国人权活动家通讯社与国际特赦组织报告。依照联合国科威特赔偿委员会（UNCC）等先例，严重人身伤害与死亡是最主要的赔偿责任类别之一。

4.民用基础设施遭攻击
学校、医院、文化遗产和关键公共设施。例如对米纳布城镇一所女子学校的袭击，造成至少168人死亡。

5.基础设施与军事资产损失
空袭涉及伊朗境内约9000个目标，这包括了核设施、导弹生产基地和防空系统。参照过去案例，重建现代军事与核设施的成本，往往以数百亿美元计算。

6.经济与能源损失
伊朗外交部将对德黑兰燃料储存设施的攻击形容为：“生态灭绝”，这是因为其可带来长期健康影响和环境破坏。能源设施（例如哈格岛）受损的成本，不仅包括修复费用，还包括停产期间的收入损失。这些损失可能每天高达数亿美元。此外，战争也几乎瘫痪了伊朗的正常经济活动，从制造业、农业、服务业到贸易。这种内部经济停摆，将构成赔偿计算中的重大部分。

以往赔偿金额计算模式

如果伊朗透过以下机制提出索赔，如国际法院（ICJ）或专门赔偿委员会，赔偿金额很可能会基于以下基准。

最终赔偿金额可能是一个“全球”数字——包括直接的物质修复、针对“生态灭绝”的环境清理以及对平民伤亡的巨额赔偿，而根据现代基础设施损毁的规模，可能超过数千亿美元。

目前，伊朗声称美国的“极限施压”行动也包括经济战，一些伊朗官员也多次指出，损失超过1兆美元／约4兆令吉，包括石油收入损失、工业停滞以及社会和经济危机（医疗、教育、公共设施短缺）。

尽管美国和以色列坚称其打击行动在法律上是正当的，属于“先发制人的自卫”或“极限施压”，但国际法专家和评论员对此提出质疑，认为2026年2月的打击行动违反了《联合国宪章》第二条第四款。

持续的轰炸甚至可能被视为构成“种族灭绝”。这项国际罪行被定义为蓄意全部或部分消灭某一民族、族裔、种族或宗教团体的行为。

特朗普声称以日本偷袭珍珠港的方式对伊朗发动突袭，这无疑表明了战争的挑起者和交战方。这场突袭和持续战争将为美国带来多大的损失，可能会在道德和伦理层面之外，以多种方式反噬特朗普、他的政府以及美国民众。

*联合国赔偿委员会（UNCC）成立于1991年，负责处理伊拉克1990年至1991年入侵和占领科威特所造成的损害索赔。联合国赔偿委员会裁定赔偿约30亿美元，用于环境修复，包括地下水处理和沙漠恢复。

林德宜《伊朗战争的赔偿问题》原文：Reparations for Iran War 

The law of reparations for war damage dictates that a State responsible for an internationally wrongful act - such as illegal warfare - must make full reparation for injury caused

Ref: Articles 1, 31, 34, and 35 on Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts (ARSIWA), International Law Commission (ILC), 2001.

When asked by a reporter during Japan's prime minister Sanei Takaichi visit, “Why didn’t you tell US allies in Europe and Asia and Japan about the war before attacking Iran”, Trump responded: “One thing you don’t want to signal too much, you know, when we go in, we went in very hard and we didn’t tell anybody about it because we wanted surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor?”

The surprise Japanese strike on the US naval base in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, killed 2,390 Americans and the US declared war on Japan the next day. Then president Franklin Delano Roosevelt called it “a date which will live in infamy”.

Trump failed to emphasise that not only was the strike an act of war. It was initiated whilst Iran and the U.S. were in negotiations aimed at addressing American concerns about Iran's nuclear capability. 

War Reparations 

Historical precedent, international law on war reparations allows the victim of a “surprise” military strike such as that launched by Japan and Germany during the 2nd WW to claim reparations. Iran’s position on the issue will likely be an important aftermath of the war. 

As of March 2026, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has demanded that the U.S. and Israel pay reparations and provide guarantees against future aggression as core conditions to end the war.

Iran has also demanded compensation from Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates since their territory was used for US-Israeli strikes which violated international law and constitutes "material and moral damages".

​Estimated War Damage and Casualty Metrics (Mid March 2026)

​Under international law, reparations typically cover restitution, monetary compensation, and guarantees of non-repetition.  

​While a final fully accounted total by Iran awaits the end of the war, the following data points, including those by US and Israel official sources providing daily assessments of the impact of their bombing strikes, gives some indication of the scale of reparations that Iran can claim.

Direct Civilian Damage and Human Casualties 

This category covers the physical destruction of property and the human cost of the conflict, which are central to any war reparations claim. Reports indicate highly significant damage, though the exact numbers vary by source.

Category of Damage Reported Estimate And Source 

1.Civilian Structures Damaged 
-42,914 buildings Iranian Red Crescent Society .
-22,000 buildings UN International Organization for Migration (IOM) .

2.Breakdown of Damaged Structures 
-36,489 residential units 
-6,179 commercial facilities Official data from the Iranian Red Crescent Society
-10,000 damaged homes in Tehran alone Anadolu Ajansı .

3.Civilian Casualties 
-Over 1,245 killed; over 12,000 injured. Reported by the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) and Amnesty International. Under precedent, such as the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) for Kuwait*, the compensation for "serious personal injury or death" is a primary category for liability.  

4.Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure
-Schools, hospitals, cultural heritage sites, and critical infrastructure. A specific attack on a girls' school in Minab killed at least 168 people .

5. ​Infrastructure & Military Assets 
-The strikes have targeted nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and air defense systems across 9,000 targets in Iran. Historical comparisons suggest that rebuilding modern military and nuclear infrastructure involves costs in the tens of billions of dollars.  

6. Economic & Energy Damages 
-Iran’s Foreign Ministry has characterized strikes on fuel depots in Tehran as "ecocide," citing long-term health and environmental damage. Damage to energy infrastructure (like Kharg Island) is often calculated not just by repair costs, but by lost revenue—which can reach hundreds of millions of dollars per day during outages. The war has also undoubtedly disrupted all normal economic activity within Iran, from manufacturing and agriculture to services and trade. The cost of this internal economic paralysis would form a major part of any reparations calculation.

​Historical Precedents for Calculation
​If Iran were to pursue these claims through a mechanism like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or a specialized compensation commission, the "amount" would likely be built on these benchmarks.

The final liability amount would likely be a "global" figure—combining direct physical repairs, environmental cleanup for "ecocide," and massive payouts for civilian loss of life—potentially exceeding several hundred billion US$ based on the scale of modern infrastructure destruction.

For now Iran has argued that U.S. "maximum pressure" campaigns constitute economic warfare and some Iranian officials have frequently cited damages exceeding $1 trillion in lost oil revenue, industrial stagnation, and social and economic crises (health, education, utilities shortages).

Although the U.S. and Israel maintain that their strikes are legally justified as "preemptive self-defense" or "maximum pressure", international law experts and commentators contest this, labeling the February 2026 strikes as a violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter.  

The continuing bombardment may even be seen as constituting “genocide”. This specific international crime has been defined as acts committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group.

Trump’s assertion of a surprise military strike on Iran in the fashion of Japan’s Pearl Harbour attack leaves no doubt as to who started the war and who is the belligerent. How much this surprise attack and continuing war will cost the US may come back to haunt Trump, his administration and the American public in more ways than just the moral and ethical concerns.

*The United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) was established in 1991 to process claims and pay compensation for damages resulting from Iraq’s 1990–1991 invasion and occupation of Kuwait. The UNCC awarded approx. US$3 billion for environmental remediation, including groundwater treatment and desert restoration. 

本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。