林德宜：特朗普陷入伊朗与中东泥淖

“我们正在彻底摧毁伊朗的恐怖政权，无论是在军事上、经济上还是其他方面……我们拥有无与伦比的火力、无限的弹药，以及充裕的时间——看看今天这些疯狂败类会发生什么。他们47年来一直在世界各地杀害无辜，现在我，作为美国第47任总统，将消灭他们。能做到这一点是多么大的荣耀啊！”

——特朗普总统于2026年3月12日在社交媒体Truth Social发文

特朗普3月12日深夜在自家社交媒体（Truth Social）发布这项推文，不仅仅是另一条挑衅的言论。自美国军事行动“午夜铁锤”展开两周后，这条推文暴露出一个领导人心理地图的可怕现实，他逐渐意识到“无与伦比的火力”并不等于轻松胜利，更谈不上退出策略。

“一次性解决”胜利的幻象

当美以联合打击于2月28日开始时，五角大楼的叙事由战争部长赫格塞斯主导，将这描绘的是一场由“世界上最强大、最先进”军队实施的外科手术式终结战。其数据依然惊人：

枪林弹雨：截至2026年3月10日，以色列国防军与美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）报告，已执行150波空袭，共出动约2600架次军机，向伊朗几乎所有省份投放约6500枚炸弹与导弹。

斩首行动：特朗普称之为“一次性打击”的行动，目标是伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及48名伊斯兰革命卫队高层官员。此次袭击同时击毙了伊朗国防部长、革命卫队指挥官及伊朗安全委员会秘书。特朗普自豪宣称：“他们全死了，二、三号人物也死了。”

瘫痪机器：伊朗60%的导弹发射器被摧毁，哈格岛油港遭重创，美国“最大压力”行动似乎达到了动能巅峰。五角大楼和以色列国防部恐怕正在苦思接下来该轰炸什么。

然而，美国声称瞄准打击的目标是燃料与能源设施、通讯、电力和水利系统、机场、医院和住宅区等，但却造成了米纳布县（Minab）一所女校超过170名师生丧生，引起国际谴责，这与特朗普承诺的“全面摧毁”产生了悖论：伊朗政府与民众虽遭重创，但并未崩溃，且随著战争延长，更不可能投降。

伊朗战争伤亡人数（独立与官方估计）

资料来源                           死亡人数                  受伤人数

伊朗官方（联合国特使）  1348+（平民）        1万7000+

HRANA（人权组织）        1858（总计）         未详

Hengaw（人权组织）       4300（总计）          未详

美国／以色列估计             4000–5000（军人） —

*截至3月12日，各方数据差异较大，但独立观察单位确认伤亡惨重。

“强人陷阱”的心理学

未来学者可能会将特朗普3月12日粗糙且情绪化的言辞，视作总统自我意象破裂的表征，而非力量的象征。心理上，特朗普一直遵循《交易的艺术》：他相信，足够的压力最终会迫使对手坐上谈判桌。

在真正的战争中，与房地产交易不同，当对手在遭受压倒性损失后仍拒绝投降时，像特朗普这样的领导人会陷入认知失调的循环。他的个人辱骂（“疯狂败类”）以及将战争描述为“莫大的荣耀”，显示出他正努力将“终极胜利者”的自我形象，与中东泥淖般的现实相调和。

对美国及其盟友而言，危险有两方面：

情绪囚禁：特朗普逐渐成为自己言辞的囚徒。此时退缩将带来个人耻辱，导致“承诺升级”，更多炸弹的投放不再为达成战略目标，而是满足心理上对完全支配的需求。对无辜民众的杀戮与痛苦成了附带结果──只是注脚！

绝境中的对手：将冲突描绘为“彻底摧毁”的十字军行动，令伊朗领导层无任何谈判诱因。当唯一选择是“必死”或“抵抗”时，即便军力受损，支持伊朗政权的民众仍会选择后者，进而可能触发伊朗对海湾地区其他国家油田的报复反击，冲击全球经济。

当一个对手面对一位公开宣称要“彻底摧毁”自己的不可预测领袖时，其可能采取比预期更具破坏力的反制行动。战争中越界行动的选择并不仅限于美国和以色列一方。如果全球以及美国境内的伊朗支持者采取激进和极端的反应，后果将会如何？

战略失败：“让伊朗再次伟大”的代价

这场人道灾难对美国政府而言不仅是一道难以抹去的污点，联合国专家指出，在城市中心使用人工智能制导重型武器也违反了国际法。但对特朗普而言，更大的威胁并不只是法律或政治层面。

美国原本期望“短期行动”，却面对长期抵抗，这将把伊朗殉难领导人的国内与国际支持者团结起来。如果“最大压力”未能产生傀儡政权，特朗普将用自己的政治遗产换取一个不稳定的世界和战略真空。若如部分战争鹰派所建议，美军实地介入，源源不断运回的尸袋将成必然现实，无法逃避。

结论

特朗普煽动性言辞以及许多人认为不可理喻的行动，暴露出一位已无退路的领导人。在全球战争这场高风险的博弈中，他已将一切押注于“摧毁”，却发现他的对手，受强烈而坚韧的宗教信念驱动，能承受任何程度的打击，甚至可能最终胜出。

林德宜《特朗普陷入伊朗与中东泥淖》原文：Trump’s DesInto Iran and Middle East Quagmire

We are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically, and otherwise ... We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time — Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today. They've been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so!"

President Donald Trump in Truth Social tweet, March 12, 2026

Donald Trump’s late-night Truth Social blast on March 12 was not just another provocative tweet. Two weeks into "Operation Midnight Hammer," it serves as a glaring and deeply disturbing psychological map of a leader realizing that "unparalleled firepower" does not equate to an easy victory or even exit strategy.

The Mirage of the "Single Shot" Victory

When the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28, the narrative from the Pentagon—led by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth—was one of surgical finality by the “most powerful and sophisticated” military in the world. The data was, and remains, staggering:

The Iron Rain: As of March 10, 2026, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported conducting 150 strike waves consisting of approximately 2,600 sorties. Roughly 6,500 munitions (bombs and missiles) had been deployed against nearly every province of Iran.

The Decapitation: The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and 48 senior IRGC officials in what Trump called a "single shot" was supposed to be the killing blow. The strike also killed the Iranian defense minister, the commander of the RGC, and the Secretary of the Iranian Security Council leading Trump to proudly announce that “they are all dead. Second or third place is dead”.

The Crippled Machine: With 60% of Iran’s missile launchers neutralized and the Kharg Island oil hub in ruins, the "maximum pressure" campaign appears to have reached its kinetic zenith. The Pentagon and HaKirya* must be at a loss trying to justify what next to rain bombs on.

Yet, despite the targeting of fuel and energy storage; communication, electricity and water systems; airports, hospitals and medical centres; and residential sectors; and the destruction of a girls' school in Minab with over 170 children and teachers killed which has aroused international outrage; the "total destruction" Trump promised and launched has yielded a paradox: The Iranian government and people are hard hit but they are not broken and are even less unlikely to surrender the longer the war is waged.

Iran War Casualties (Independent & Official Estimates)

Source                                          Reported Killed                   Reported Wounded

Iran Official (UN Envoy)                1,348+ (Civilians)                17,000+

HRANA (Human Rights Group)    1,858  (total)                    Unspecified

Hengaw (Human Rights Group)    4,300  (total)                    Unspecified 

U.S. / Israel Estimates                  4,000–5,000 (Military)

*Casualty figures as of 12 Mac vary widely depending on the source, but independent monitors confirm a heavy toll.

The Psychology of the "Strongman" Trap

Future scholars are likely to view Trump’s March 12 crude and emotional rhetoric not as a sign of strength, but as a "cracking up" of the presidential ego. Psychologically, Trump has always operated on the Art of the Deal—the belief that enough pressure will inevitably force a counterparty to the table.

In a real war, unlike in a real property deal, when an adversary refuses to capitulate despite overwhelming loss, a leader like Trump enters a cognitive dissonance loop. His personal insults ("deranged scumbags") and the framing of war as a "great honor" suggest a man struggling to reconcile his self-image as the "ultimate winner" with the reality of a Middle Eastern quagmire.  

The danger to the U.S. and its allies is two-fold:

Emotional Imprisonment: Trump is increasingly a prisoner of his own venomous rhetoric. To back down now would be a personal humiliation. This leads to "escalation of commitment," where more bombs are dropped not to achieve a strategic goal, but to satisfy a psychological need for total dominance. The killing of innocents and infliction of suffering on the Iranian population has become incidental - a footnote!

The Cornered Adversary: By framing the conflict as a crusade of "complete destruction," Trump leaves the Iranian leadership with zero incentive to negotiate. If the only options are "certain death" or "resistance," even a degraded military and its supporting citizenry will choose the latter, potentially triggering more "eye for an eye" retaliatory strikes on Gulf oil fields that could tank the global economy. 

An adversary dealing with an unpredictable leader publicly declaring that he is seeking its “total destruction” could counter with what it sees as justifiable action that may be more devastating than anticipated. Crossing red lines in war action is not just an option open to the American and Israeli side. What could happen if Iran's supporters around the world and the U.S. choose radical and extreme responses?

Strategic Failure: The Cost of "Making Iran Great Again"

The humanitarian toll is more than an indelible stain on the administration, with UN experts citing the use of AI-guided heavy weapons in urban centers as a violation of international law. But for Trump, the greater threat is more than legal or political.

Instead of a "short-term excursion," the U.S. is staring down a prolonged resistance that rallies domestic Iranian and international Islamic support around a martyred leadership. If this "maximum pressure" fails to produce a puppet government, Trump will have traded his legacy for a destabilized world and a strategic vacuum. If he puts American boots on the ground as some war hawks are suggesting, the arrival of large numbers of body bags in American airports is a certainty from which there can be no escape. 

The Verdict 

Trump’s descent into inflammatory rhetoric and what many regard as unconscionable action reveals a leader who has run out of moves. In the high-stakes poker of global warfare, he has gone "all-in" on destruction, only to find that his opponent - driven by a fervent and resilient religious ideology - can take any amount of punishment and possibly emerge the victor.

*HaKirya is the Israeli equivalent of the US Pentagon

本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。