“美国在中东打仗与维稳花了8兆美元（31亿令吉）。我们有数千名英勇军人丧生或重伤。对方则有数百万人死亡。进入中东，是美国历史上做过最糟糕的决定！”
特朗普于2019年10月9日推文
在2026年2月24日的国情咨文演说中，美国总统特朗普承诺，美国将迎来一个“新的黄金时代”。他的演说多聚焦于国内议题，但也强调自己是全球和平缔造者，声称在9个月内终结了8场战争。然而，这一说法如今已然破灭。任何角逐诺贝尔和平奖的可能性亦随之消散。更糟的是，特朗普或许正将美国与中东带入一个动荡与黑暗的新时代。
2月28日，美国与以色列——在国际关系史上一次前所未见且极其危险的行动中——发动了名为“史诗狂怒行动”的军事打击行动党。此举发生时，特朗普的特使库什纳与维特科夫仍在日内瓦与伊朗代表进行谈判。
谈判的核心在于以新的核协议取代2015年的《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）。此前，美国在2018年单方面退出该协议，却又以之为筹码，向伊朗施压以获取更广泛让步。尽管谈判进展缓慢，促成谈判的阿曼外交部长巴德尔于美国军事行动前一周，在阿曼首都马斯喀特确认，新核协议已取得“重大进展”。
如今，谈判不仅被彻底摧毁，此次攻击的时机和动机，更超越了部分人所认为仅仅是因美国不满伊朗拖延战术而采取的“非常行动”。
前所未有的国际关系失范
首先，此次行动在现代外交与地缘政治史上几乎没有先例。它打破了传统“先谈判、后升级”的冲突模式，取而代之的是“以谈判为掩护”的军事教义。这似乎成为特朗普所谓“特朗普主义”的新原则——从最初被认为适用于西半球，扩展至凡是他认为有利于美国的地区。
国家间固然常以“强制外交”威胁动武以争取筹码，但在谈判进行之际发动全面斩首式打击，对于一个超级大国而言极为罕见。有关军事行动距离美伊双方在日内瓦谈判后两天。通常，谈判构成一层“外交盾牌”，暂停军事行动以争取体面退场的空间。然而此次打击显示，美国外交不再是冲突的阶段性环节，而成为战争同步进行的组成部分。多名国际法专家指出，此举违反《联合国宪章》，以赤裸裸的军事力量取代国际法规范，使美国沦为破坏规则的一方。
其次，在这些打击行动中“定点清除”最高领袖哈梅内伊，已使行动性质从原本所谓的“有限军事目标”，升级为更复杂且影响深远的层面。这并非美国首次进行被界定为“有限”的军事行动，亦非首次涉及对敌对政治领袖的暗杀。
然而，这次针对全球最重要伊斯兰国家之一的国家元首所进行的击杀行动，却带来数个全新的维度，将对美国在中东及整个伊斯兰世界的国际关系产生深刻冲击。
这不仅象征著与美国打交道时“善意外交”的终结，也使美国在外交互动中呈现出比“不可信任”更为负面的形象。一些批评美国外交政策的人士指出，此举可能树立危险的全球先例。如果谈判被视为用来搜集情报或锁定领袖行踪的“陷阱”（正如部分人士指哈梅内伊所遭遇的情况），那么未来的对手或将拒绝与美国外交人员同处一室，从而使核扩散问题及其他全球性挑战的和平解决变得更加困难。
对美国乃至全球而言，更为深层且攸关存亡的危险在于：当美国与以色列将打击目标锁定在伊朗核心领导层及伊朗革命卫队时，实际上已剥夺伊朗展现克制的动机。当“重返谈判桌”的选项不复存在，残存的伊朗军事力量及其支持群体，势必更倾向于采取最大限度的报复行动。
我们已经看到这一态势正在上演。伊朗的即时回应，目前包括在波斯湾一带发动导弹攻击，打击位于巴林、沙地阿拉伯、卡塔尔及阿联酋的美国目标。这使冲突有从局部战事扩大为席卷整个中东地区的长期战争之风险，而不再仅是区域性冲突。
一场旷日持久且范围扩大的美伊战争，将对全球与美国国内经济带来冲击，能源价格震荡与金融不稳将成为主要推手。从股市近期的发展即可看出，美国本身亦无法幸免于这场经济冲击。
对内与对外政治后果
特朗普在国内将此行动包装为“解放伊朗人民”的正义之举，但没有多少人会相信。该行动更像是回应以色列倡议，并取悦外交鹰派。它可能在短期内激发爱国情绪，助共和党在11月中期选举中获胜。民调显示，约84%的共和党人支持以军事行动阻止伊朗取得核武。同时，“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）支持者亦视之为实现美国力量承诺的象征。
然而，这种国内胜利或许只是皮洛士式胜利（惨胜）。反击报复已然展开。若战争持续扩大，它将永远玷污特朗普所承诺的“黄金时代”遗产，并使美国付出远超预期的代价。这不会让中东或美国更安全，反而可能在穆斯林世界激化反美情绪。
在宗教与政治层面的冲击，包括走向末世复仇与殉道式行动的极端化风险，仍属未知变数。许多美国人或许难以理解这种威胁——然而历史曾以“9·11”作出沉重提醒。此次对哈梅内伊的军事行动与刺杀，其馀波将远超特朗普任期。
注：《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）即伊朗核协议，为2015年伊朗与美国、英国、法国、中国、俄罗斯及德国达成的协议，旨在确保伊朗核计划仅限和平用途。作为交换，国际社会放宽制裁，伊朗则接受严格浓缩铀限制与加强核查。美国于2018年退出该协议。
林德宜《美国是否在启动一场“永久战争”？》原文 Has the United States Launched A Forever War：
The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE IN THE HISTORY OF OUR COUNTRY!"
Tweet at @realDonaldTrump, 9 0ct 2019
In his State of the Union address on 24 February 2026, President Donald J. Trump promised the arrival of a "new Golden Age" for the United States. Much of his speech focused on domestic issues and concerns. However he also emphasized his role as a global peace maker, claiming to have ended eight wars in nine months. This claim has now been shattered. Any possibility of a Nobel peace prize award has now disappeared. Worse, Trump may be responsible for leading the US and Middle East into an era of strife and darkness.
On February 28, the U.S., together with Israel - in an unprecedented and dangerous move in international relations - launched “Operation Epic Fury”. This military strike took place while Trump's special envoys - Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff - were engaged in talks in Geneva with Iranian negotiators.
The talks, primarily centering on a new nuclear agreement to replace the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action* (JCPOA), had earlier seen the U.S. use the agreement which it had unilaterally withdrawn from in 2018, to push for broader concessions from Iran. Though the negotiations were slow moving, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, the Omani foreign minister facilitating the negotiations, had a week before the military strike confirmed in Muscat that "significant progress" had been made on a new nuclear agreement.
Not only have the talks been torpedoed, the timing of the strike goes beyond what some see just as an extraordinary American action said by Trump to be justified by Iranian stalling tactics.
Unprecedented Breach in Conduct of International Relations
Firstly it is without parallel in modern diplomacy and geopolitics. It represents a fundamental break from the traditional "talk-then-strike" escalation scale in international conflict, replacing it with a doctrine of "negotiation as cover." This appears to be an emerging principle in Trump's “Doctrine” earlier seen as applying to the western hemisphere but now in effect wherever Trump sees an advantage for the U.S.
While nations often use "coercive diplomacy" (threatening force to gain leverage), it is exceptionally rare for a superpower to launch a full-scale decapitation strike while negotiating. The military operation occurred just two days after a high-stakes round in Geneva. Typically, negotiations provide a "diplomatic shield" that pauses military action to allow for face-saving and negotiated exits. By striking, the Trump administration effectively signaled that US diplomacy is no longer a sequential phase but a simultaneous component of active warfare. International legal experts agree that in breaking international law and resorting to raw military power in breach of the United Nations charter, the US has become the villain.
Secondly, the targeted death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during these strikes moves the action from its "limited military objective" to more complex and consequential impacts and implications. This is not the first ‘limited’ military action and assassination of opposing political leaders that the U.S. has been engaged.
However, this particular killing of a head of state of one of the foremost Islamic countries in the world has several new dimensions that will impact the U.S. in its international relations, with countries in the Middle East and Islamic world.
Not only does it signify the death of good faith diplomacy in dealings with the U.S. but it also shows up the U.S. as worse than untrustworthy in its diplomatic engagement. Some critics of America’s foreign policy argue that this sets a dangerous global precedent. If negotiations are a "trap" used to gather intelligence or fix the location of leaders (as some allege happened with Khamenei), future adversaries may refuse to even enter a room with U.S. diplomats, making peaceful resolutions to nuclear proliferation and other global challenges impossible.
The bigger existential danger for the U.S. and world is that by targeting the core Iranian leadership and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the U.S. and Israel have removed Iran's incentive to show restraint. Without a "return to the table" option, the remaining Iranian military elements and supporting population are likely to favor maximum retaliation. We are already seeing this play out. Iran’s immediate response is currently involving missile strikes across the Gulf, hitting American targets in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
This risks a wider and longer war that encompasses the entire Middle East, rather than a localized conflict. A prolonged and expanded war between the US and Iran would have severe global and domestic economic consequences, primarily driven by energy shocks and financial instability. The US will not be spared the economic impacts as can be seen from the developments in share markets.
Impact on the Domestic and International Constituency
Trump, whilst celebrating the removal of the Iranian leader, has framed the strikes for his American constituency as a liberation effort to provide freedom to the Iranian people. Very few people believe this. This strike appears to have been instigated by Israel and is designed to appeal to foreign policy hawks. It may provide a surge in patriotism to ensure Republican wins in the November midterm elections. Polling shows that roughly 84% of Republicans support military action to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. At the same time, Trump’s "MAGA" base largely views the strikes as a fulfillment of his promise to project American power.
This domestic win however could prove to be a pyrrhic victory. It has already unleashed devastating reprisals. A prolonged war that will forever stain Trump’s promised golden age legacy and cost the US much more dearly than anticipated. It will certainly not make the Middle East and the US itself safer for Americans as foreign public opinion especially among Muslims is radicalised further.
The religious and political impact and implications including the shift toward apocalyptic revenge by individuals or groups intent on martyrdom are an unknown factor. Few Americans realize or can comprehend this threat which incidentally produced the 9-11 episode in US history. The impact of this military operation and assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei will reverberate long after Trump's presidency has ended.
*The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran nuclear deal, is a 2015 agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (USA, UK, France, China, Russia + Germany) designed to ensure Iran’s nuclear program remains exclusively peaceful. It eased international sanctions in exchange for strict limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment and enhanced inspections. The US withdrew from the agreement in 2018.
本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。
公共政策分析学者
