2026年为火马年。在部分传统观点中，火马象征一个剧烈而高速变动的时期，马的独立奔放，结合“火”元素的爆发性，往往容易引发激烈争议与冲突。
一些预测来年局势将高度紧张的传统术数专家指出，火马年适合果断行动，但同时警告，过于强烈的“火能量”亦可能导致冲动决策与对抗升级。
若将风水师的年度预测与地缘政治分析相互对照，2026年可能出现以下几项关键国际发展。
战争与和平
据报导，美国与乌克兰已就一项和平方案达成90%至95%的共识，这或将使持续多年的俄乌战争走向政治与军事停火。然而，在战后格局中，北约若持续透过军事与战略部署削弱普京领导下的俄罗斯，俄罗斯与北约成员国之间爆发冲突的风险仍然偏高。
乌克兰与俄罗斯双方均已严重消耗，对和平抱持现实期待。战争死伤人数据估接近200万，其中俄方损失可能更为惨重。然而，普京或将宣称自己成功阻止北约东扩，在不少观察者眼中，这正是一场本可避免战争的主要导火线。至于乌克兰，社会内部恐将长期争论究竟赢得了什么，又失去了什么。
潜在冲突热点与风险
尽管“末日之钟”被调整至更接近第三次世界大战的警戒位置，但全球局势目前呈现的是地缘政治冲击延后爆发的特征。外界期望火马年的“烈性”能在各大热点受到节制，以务实交易式结果避免全面性灾难，因为即便是长期自认可免于全球动荡冲击的西方，也难以幸免。
作为全球主要军事与外交力量，美国正致力于巩固其主导地位。但这种主导日益以“极限施压”为核心，并将军事威慑与有限度行动视为主要谈判工具。战略焦点已由长期战争，转向高风险、快速反应式干预、政权更替行动及有限战争，以降低美军伤亡。
2026年，美国主要关注的潜在热点包括：
伊朗
截至2月，中东已成为全球最不稳定地区之一，美国正大规模集结军力针对伊朗。特朗普近期警告，伊朗须在2月底前达成新的核协议，否则将面临“未具体说明的后果”。多数分析认为，这可能意味对核设施或领导层的军事打击。无论如何，美国行动即使属于外科手术式攻击，其后果仍可能深远，这包括：
●伊朗会对驻伊拉克与叙利亚美军基地或盟友基础设施进行报复
●冲突扩大至以色列、沙地阿拉伯、海湾国家及真主党等武装力量。俄罗斯与中国警告，此类打击可能引发更大规模战争
●荷姆兹海峡，这条全球约20%石油与液化天然气运输通道将受干扰，引发能源价格飙升至每桶100至125美元
●全球市场剧烈波动并推高通胀
●核扩散风险上升，德黑兰可能加速发展核武作为最终威慑
拉丁美洲
美国已在加勒比海部署大规模海空军力量，除了打压委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政权外，更进一步为区域干预作准备。此举被视为“实力即正义”战略的一部分，以维护区域主导权。对古巴采取军事行动亦不能完全排除。
北极方面
一个非常规但逐渐浮现的热点是格陵兰。在“美国优先”政策框架下，特朗普政府向丹麦施压，要求扩大北极军事权限，其亦未放弃吞并格陵兰的构想。虽尚未构成战争，但已在跨大西洋同盟内造成重大裂痕。
亚太地区
尽管美国目前未直接准备因台湾问题对中国开战，但其2026年战略明显趋于强硬。美国近期在菲律宾扩建军事基地并部署“堤丰”（Typhon）导弹系统，使中国军事与民用设施首次被纳入直接打击范围，形成高度危险的潜在引爆点。
在科技层面，美国将台湾半导体优势视为全球经济重组中的“单点失效风险”，因此采取双轨策略：一方面强化台湾防卫能力，另一方面推动自身“晶片自主”。
短期内台海战争未必迫在眉睫，但台湾已成为西方的灰色压力点，以及中国不可逾越的红线。美国透过日本、韩国、菲律宾与关岛基地形成的军事包围网正进一步收紧，增加亚洲爆发冲突的可能性。
新型全球科技战争秩序
不管是风水观察与地缘政治分析，在某种程度上都与加拿大总理于2026年1月世界经济论坛特别演说中的判断相呼应。加拿大总理卡尼指出，冷战后建立的“以规则为基础的国际秩序”正经历的不是过渡，而是一次断裂，新的世界秩序正在形成。卡尼认为，由美国霸权支撑的旧体系已告终结，中等强国若不调整战略，将在大国竞争时代被边缘化。
更令人忧虑的是，2026年2月5日《新削减战略武器条约》（New START）到期，使限制美俄战略核武的最后主要机制失效。全球因此进入一场几乎不受约束的军备竞赛。
在人工智能、进攻性网络战与反卫星武器被纳入军事体系后，误判与快速升级风险大幅上升，人类正步入一个更复杂、亦更危险的核时代——其最终代价，可能关乎整个地球的存续。
林德宜《火马之年：特朗普会发动战争吗？》原文：FIRE HORSE YEAR: Will Trump Launch War
The Year of the Fire Horse (2026) is seen by some as ushering in a period of intense, fast-paced change that can spark fiery controversies due to its volatile mix of the Horse’s independent spirit and the Fire element’s explosive nature.
Traditional experts who anticipate a charged year have advised on bold action with the warning that the intense "fire energy" could lead to impulsiveness and conflict
These are some key geopolitical developments that could happen if the predictions of feng shui masters are correlated with geopolitical analysts for 2026
War And Peace
With the U.S. and Ukraine reportedly aligned on 90–95% of a peace proposal, this will lead to the long running Ukraine Russian War grind down to a political and military truce outcome. However, risks of clashes between Russia and NATO members remain high as NATO maneuvers in the post-war era to chip away at Putin’s Russia and collapse it.
Both combatants, Ukraine and Russia, face severe exhaustion and will welcome peace. Casualties have been horrendous and are approaching two million dead and wounded with Russian losses reportedly worse. However, Putin will have won a victory against an expansionist NATO seen by many as the principal catalyst to an entirely avoidable war. Ukrainians will probably endlessly debate on whether and what they have won or lost.
Potential Conflict Zones & Risks
Although the doomsday clock has been moved closer to a World War III scenario, the global landscape has been characterized by delayed geopolitical impact. Hopes are for the fiery horse to be reined in further in the world's hotspots to produce transactional outcomes and avert the disastrous impact that will hit all, including the West that has seen itself largely immune to any world disorder.
The U.S., the main military and foreign policy power in the world, will be determined to establish and reinforce its supremacy. However this is increasingly defined by "maximum pressure" campaigns and the willingness to use military posturing and calibrated action as a primary negotiating tool. The focus has shifted from long-term wars toward high-stakes, rapid-response interventions and regime change and limited wars so that American casualties are minimized.
For now these are the primary U.S.targeted hotspots for 2026:
Iran
As of February, the Middle East is the most volatile region due to a massive U.S. military buildup aimed at Iran. Trump recently issued a warning that Iran has until the end of February to reach a new nuclear deal or face "unspecified consequences," which many analysts interpret as potential strikes on nuclear facilities and leadership targets.
Any US military action in Iran, however surgical the strike, is likely to have profound impacts including
●Iranian retaliation against US bases in Iraq and Syria or allied infrastructure
●Escalation to include Israel, Saudi Arabia, Gulf Arab states and groups like Hezbollah. Russia and China have warned that strikes will drag the world into a broader war
●Energy shock with disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil and LNG flows—causing prices to potentially spike to $100–$125 per barrel
●Market volatility as any war will upset market equilibrium and drive up global inflation
●The nuclear proliferation threat would be heightened as Tehran would accelerate its pursuit of a nuclear weapon as a final deterrent.
Latin America
In a significant shift the U.S. has initiated a massive naval and air presence in the Caribbean to assert influence and prepare for further interventions, in addition to that secured against Maduro in Venezuela. This heightened posture is part of a broader strategy referred to as a "might is right" approach to ensure regional dominance. A military strike against Cuba is not out of the question.
The North:
An unconventional but emerging hotspot involves Greenland. As part of a broader "America First" agenda, Trump has pressured Denmark to grant more extensive military rights in the Arctic. Meanwhile, his intention to annex Greenland remains intact. Though not yet a "war," it has created a significant rift in the transatlantic alliance.
Asia-Pacific
While the U.S. is not currently "initiating" a war with China over Taiwan, its 2026 strategy has become significantly more assertive. The U.S. recent expansion of its Asian military bases and Typhon missile systems in the Philippines could be a very dangerous flashpoint. These launchers, capable of firing cruise missiles, now put Chinese military and civilian facilities within range.
On the critical technological front, U.S. policy to treat Taiwan's semiconductor dominance as a "single point of failure" for the restructuring of the global economy has led to a dual-track strategy: bolstering Taiwan’s defense while simultaneously pressuring for "semiconductor independence". While a war over Taiwan is not imminent, the island constitutes a grey zone pressure point for the West, and a red line point for China. US military encirclement of China through its bases in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Guam has been further tightened and can easily lead to war in the Asian region
New Global And Technology Driven War Order
Both feng shui and geopolitical analysts are generally in accord with the conclusion by Canada’s Prime Minister in his widely noted special address at the World Economic Forum in January 2026. According to Carney, the post-cold war rules-based international order has experienced a "rupture, not a transition" and a new world order is emerging.
Arguing that the old system, largely enabled by American hegemony, is finished, Carney called for a shift in strategy for "middle powers" to avoid marginalization in a world dominated by great-power rivalry.
It is not only marginalization that is on the global order menu. The expiration of New START on 5 February 2026 removes the last major treaty capping US and Russian strategic nuclear weapons. This has created a dangerous and unconstrained arms race bringing the world into a new and complex nuclear era in which integration of artificial intelligence, offensive cyber capabilities, and anti-satellite weaponry into military strategies has increased the danger of rapid and accidental escalation towards planet earth destruction.
本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。
公共政策分析学者
