林德宜：加拿大总理冲击特朗普布局

​自现任美国总统特朗普就职以来，他从不掩饰其“令美国再次伟大”（MAGA）任务的一部分，即可能兼并加拿大。2024年11月29日，特朗普在海湖庄园与时任加拿大总理贾斯廷·特鲁多会面时，首次公开将加拿大称为美国的“第51个州”。  

此后的关键进展包括：

●“州长”标签： 到2024年12月9日，特朗普开始在社交媒体Truth Social上公开称特鲁多为“伟大的加拿大州长”。
​●转向“经济手段”：2025年1月初，特朗普表示他将使用“经济手段”而非军事力量来追求兼并，并将这描述为改善国家安全和解决贸易逆差的一种方式。
​●大陆堡垒：分析人士认为，特朗普将加拿大视为“北美堡垒”领土核心的一部分，为了美国的安全，优先获取加拿大广阔的自然资源。
​●对现任加拿大总理卡尼延续此论调：2025年4月特鲁多辞职，卡尼当选总理后，特朗普继续沿用这一辞令。据报道，特朗普在2025年3月28日与卡尼的通话中，以及2025年5月的椭圆形办公室会议上，再次提到了“第51个州”的前景。  

​在整个过程中，加拿大总理一直以务实的外交和娴熟的修辞予以回应。据卡尼当选后的报道显示，他采取了“坚忍克制”的态度，而非公开与对方“互泼泥巴”。他的策略核心是捍卫加拿大主权，并宣布“加拿大是非卖品”。  

​卡尼访华的重大意义

​然而，当下的局势发展已远超修辞和礼貌言辞。在2026年1月卡尼对北京进行具有里程碑意义的五天国事访问中，特朗普和世界见证了卡尼对加国政治和经济关系史无前例重塑。这一影响极有可能使美国对加拿大的传统影响力靠边站。

​此次访问的关键细节及其对地缘政治格局的影响包括：

​●脱离美国的战略转型：卡尼明确表示，加拿大与美国长期亲密的经济关系“已经结束”。他倡导“战略自主”，强调加拿大绝不能再做美国的“碎片化卫星国”。
​●贸易多元化： 为了减少对美国市场的依赖，目前美国市场占了加拿大出口的75%以上，卡尼的任务重点是在未来十年内将对非美国市场的出口翻一番。
​●​结束加中关系的“冰封期”：此次访问终结了自2018年华为/孟晚舟事件以来近八年的关系瘫痪状态。
​​●从“破坏者”转变为“伙伴”：此次访问标志著加拿大改变了2022年时将中国描述为“日益具有破坏性”力量的“印太战略”，转而将中国视为比美国更重要、破坏性更小的伙伴。双方同意加强在清洁能源、现代农业、航空航天和关键矿产方面的合作，旨在建立更“稳定、可预测”的关系。

​眼下最重要的举措是，加拿大与中国签署了贸易休战协议，大幅削减了特鲁多-拜登时代征收的激进关税。加拿大允许4万9000辆中国电动汽车以6.1%的低关税（此前为100%）进入其市场。这可能是吸引中国投资加拿大汽车行业的先兆，有望建立一个独立于美国控制的电动汽车技术“北美中心”。  

​作为交换，中国将大幅削减加拿大菜籽油种子的关税（从84%降至15%），并取消对豌豆、海鲜和菜籽粕的关税。这向特朗普政府发出了明确讯号，如果美国继续对加拿大的钢铁、铝或木材征收或威胁征收关税，加拿大示意会寻找其他买家和伙伴。  

​地缘政治影响：向世界发出的讯号

​在中方，习主席赞誉此次访问为“转折点”。卡尼受到了极高规格的外交礼遇，这与其在华盛顿遭遇的紧张互动形成了鲜明对比。分析人士认为，卡尼此行是在变化的世界秩序中为加拿大的未来进行“对冲”。

​此次访问被视为潜在的“博弈规则改变”，原因如下：

1​.“必然脱钩”论的终结：2020年代的大部分时间里，主流论调是西方经济体最终将与中国脱钩。通过与北京建立“战略合作伙伴关系”，加拿大这个美国最忠实的盟友打破了关于脱钩的共识。如果加拿大能在降低电动汽车关税的同时保持G7成员国身份，找到一条中间道路，这将为其他国家（如澳洲、韩国或德国）抵制美国领导的对华经济孤立提供蓝图。这标志著世界正在走向受中国影响的多极化，而非新的冷战两极体系。

2.​大国中间外交的新模式：曾任央行行长的卡尼引入了专家所谓的“经济现实主义”。加拿大的外交政策不再基于意识形态的一致性，而是基于经济韧性和战略自主。

与此同时，北京也成功借由这次访问在北美盟友之间制造裂痕。这显示中国能够凭借其经济实力与庞大的市场规模，动摇甚至分化美国最亲密的安全伙伴。
​
3.“特朗普时代”对冲战略：此次访问的时机可被视为对特朗普“美国优先2.0”和MAGA议程的直接回应。这不仅改变了加拿大的力量对比，也改变了包括东盟国家在内的其他国家的动态，这些国家在当今地缘政治中感受到了美国的霸凌或胁迫。

这次访问也被视为中国拉拢那些对美国主导地位与保护主义心生不满国家的战略胜利。它进一步巩固了北京作为全球经济治理中枢、不可或缺角色的地位，对西方推动“去风险”“脱钩”乃至意图削弱中国的努力形成有力反制。

​长期结果

​访问的结果呈现出一种进步与挑战并存的微妙局面。许多加拿大人并不认为这是一场突然的地缘政治转型，而是在艰难的重新平衡行动中迈出具有重大影响的一步。

对他们而言，这次访问成功开启了与中国之间一个更务实、以经济为重心的新篇章。

​对于更广泛的国际秩序而言，这次访问是一个测试案例，即中等大国如何在日益碎片化和多极化的经济秩序中航行，在这种秩序中，经济生存决定了必须重新接触中国，同时抵御“特朗普经济学”、关税战和新美国帝国野心的冲击。

​当然，也不应低估特朗普的反应。尽管他因委内瑞拉、伊朗和格林兰岛事务而忙得不可开交，但他对卡尼寻求贸易协议表示了赞赏。但毫无疑问，他将继续在场边施压。其政府的“唐罗主义”（Donroe Doctrine）旨在更公然地确立美国在西半球的卓越地位。尽管如此，加拿大的所有民调一致显示，如果就加拿大是否加入美国进行公投，绝大多数加拿大人会投“反对”票。

​加拿大对华策略转向总结：

本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。

注：林德宜将近年于《东方日报》专栏文章汇集成书，书名《中国崛起：美国与西方回应》已于今年1月出版，并会在2月1日（星期天）早上10时，于隆雪华堂2楼诚毅厅举行推介礼，诚邀各方出席。

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林德宜《​加拿大总理冲击特朗普布局》原文：Canadian Premier Bombshell On Trump Parade

Beginning with his current incumbency as US president, Donald Trump has made no secret that a part of his MAGA mission is the possible annexation of Canada. His first public reference to Canada as the US "51st state" was during a dinner meeting with then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago on November 29, 2024.

Key developments following this include:

● "Governor" Label: By December 9, 2024, Trump began publicly referring to Trudeau as the "Governor of the Great State of Canada" on Truth SOCIAL

● Shift to "Economic Force": In early January 2025, Trump stated he would use "economic force" rather than military force to pursue annexation, framing it as a way to improve national security and resolve trade deficits 

● Continental Fortress: Analysts suggest Trump views Canada as part of a territorial core for a North American fortress, prioritizing access to Canada's vast natural resources as a matter of US security

● Continuation with Mark Carney: After Trudeau's resignation and the election of Carney as Prime Minister in April 2025, Trump continued the rhetoric. He reportedly raised the 51st state prospect again during a call with Carney on March 28, 2025, and during an Oval Office meeting in May 2025.

Through all of this, the Canadian Prime Minister has responded with pragmatic diplomacy and deft rhetoric. In reports following his election, Mark Carney can be discerned to have adopted a stiff upper lip rather than engage in public mud slinging. His strategy has centered on defending Canadian sovereignty - declaring "Canada is not for sale".

Carney's Beijing Visit Significance

But emerging now is much more than rhetoric and polite verbiage. In his January 2026 landmark five-day state visit to Beijing, Trump and the world are witnessing a bombshell unprecedented resetting of political and economic relations by Carney. The impact has the potential to effectively sideline the traditional US influence over Canada.

Key details of the visit and its impact on the geopolitical landscape include:

● Strategic Pivot from the U.S.: Carney explicitly stated that Canada's longstanding, close economic relationship with the US is "now over". He is championing "strategic autonomy," emphasizing that Canada must no longer be a "fragmented satellite" of
the US.

● Trade Diversification: Seeking to reduce reliance on the American market - which currently takes over 75% of Canadian exports - Carney’s mission focused on doubling exports to non - US markets over the next decade.

● Ending the Frozen Period of Canada - China Relations: The visit ends nearly eight years of paralysed relations that followed the 2018 Huawei/Meng Wanzhou arrest.

● From "Disruptive" to "Partner": The visit signals a move away from the 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy that framed China as an "increasingly disruptive" power toward treating China as a key and less disruptive partner than the US. Both sides agreed to
strengthen cooperation in clean energy, modern agriculture, aerospace, and critical minerals, aiming to build a more "stable, predictable" relationship.

Immediately significant is that Canada signed a trade truce with China which significantly rolled back the aggressive tariffs imposed during the Trudeau-Biden era. Canada is allowing 49,000 Chinese EVs into its market at a reduced tariff of 6.1% (down from 100%). This is likely to be the precursor of a deal to attract Chinese investment into the Canadian auto industry, potentially creating a "North American hub" for EV tech that is independent of US control.

In exchange, China is slashing tariffs on Canadian canola seeds (from 84% to 15%) and removing duties on peas, seafood, and canola meal. The message to the Trump administration is clear. If the US continues to impose or threaten tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, or lumber, Canada is signaling it will find other buyers and partners.

Geopolitical Implications: A Signal to the World

On the China side, President Xi has hailed the visit as a "turning point". Carney was received with a level of diplomatic ceremony that contrasts sharply with his strained interactions in Washington. Analysts view the trip as a move by Carney to hedge Canada's future in a changing world order.

The visit can be viewed as a potential game changer for the following reasons

1. The Death of "Inevitable Decoupling"
For much of the 2020s, the prevailing narrative was that Western economies would eventually decouple from China. By striking a "Strategic Partnership" with Beijing, Canada -the staunchest of America’ s allies - shatters this consensus on decoupling.

If Canada can find a middle path by lowering EV tariffs while remaining a G7 member, it provides a blueprint for other nations (e.g. Australia, South Korea, or Germany) to resist US -led economic isolation of China. This signals that the world is moving toward a China influenced multipolarity rather than a new Cold War bi-polar system.

2. A New Model for Middle Power Diplomacy
Carney, a former central banker, has introduced what experts call "economic realism." Instead of basing foreign policy on ideological alignment, Canada is basing it on economic resilience and strategic autonomy.

At the same time, Beijing is successfully using the visit to drive a wedge between North American allies. This indicates that China can use its economic clout and market size to peel away even the closest US security partners.

3. Leverage in the "Age of Trump"
The timing of the visit can be seen as a direct response to Trump’s "America First" 2.0 and MAGA agenda. The visit changes the power dynamic for not only Canada but also other countries including in Asean that see themselves as bullied or coerced by the US in today's geopolitics.

The visit is also seen as a victory for China’s strategy of engaging countries frustrated by US dominance and protectionism. It reinforces Beijing’s position as a central, indispensable player in global economic governance, defying Western efforts at decoupling and collapsing China.

Longer Term Outcome

The visit’s outcome and further follow up presents a nuanced picture of progress and challenges. Many Canadians see it not as a sudden geopolitical transformation but as a consequential step in a difficult rebalancing act.

For them, the visit successfully launches a more pragmatic and economically focused chapter with China.

For the broader international order, the visit serves as a test case for how middle powers can navigate the emerging, more fragmented, and multipolar economic order, where economic survival dictates re-engaging with China whilst resisting the onslaught of Trumponomics, tariff wars and new American empire ambitions.

Trump’s reaction should not be discounted. With his hands full over Venezuela, Iran and Greenland, he has commended Carney for seeking a trade deal. But there should be little doubt that he will continue to exert pressure from the sidelines, with his administration's "Donroe Doctrine" aimed at asserting American preeminence more blatantly in the Western Hemisphere. This is despite all Canadian polls consistently showing that the overwhelming majority of Canadians would vote "no" in a referendum on whether Canada should join the United States.