林德宜——凤凰挑战：从尼克逊到特朗普

2026年4月，美国总统特朗普将到访中国。多数观察者认为，这次访问象征美国承认了中国在当今地缘政治重塑的世界秩序中的崛起地位。而由美国总统率先访华、而非中方先行访美，其象征意义尤为深远。

这次访问，距离尼克逊总统于1972年具有划时代意义的访华，已逾半个世纪。当年，尼克逊的战略目的，在于美苏对峙中“打中国牌”，以中国作为美国牵制苏联的楔子。

1972年的这一事件及其后续发展，被视为20世纪最重要的战略转向之一。尽管对外包装为一场“和平使命”，实质上却是当时作为世界秩序无可争议领导者的美国，所进行的一次精密计算的现实政治操作，旨在重塑冷战权力结构，并巩固美国的主导地位。

而今日特朗普的访问，发生在美国自其世界秩序高位滑落之际。这标志著二战后“两极世界”的终结，以及一个多极时代的到来——在这个时代中，美国必须重新协商自身地位，尤其是与其全球同侪中国之间的关系。

1972年美国对华政策的转变

在尼克逊访华之际，其幕后设计者——时任国务卿亨利基辛格——的宏观目标，是利用中苏分裂。透过改善与北京的关系，他期望引发苏联对美中可能结盟的焦虑，并迫使莫斯科在军控与欧洲安全问题上对美国采取更为合作的态度。基辛格相信，只要美国同时与中国与苏联保持比彼此更为密切的关系，华盛顿便可成为真正的“平衡者”。

另一项短期而关键的期待，是中国能协助美国抽身越战。基辛格希望，透过拉拢北越最强大的盟友，美国得以向北越施压，推动和平谈判；同时也寻求中方保证，在美军逐步撤出该地区时不再进一步介入。

作为一名现实主义者，基辛格深信，像中国这样体量的国家，若被忽视，将对全球稳定构成风险。

最后，正如尼克逊著名的表述，他们不希望“8亿人生活在孤立之中”。基辛格期望，将中国纳入国际社会，能使其行为不再那么革命化，并逐步符合美国所界定的国际规范。

特朗普今日面对的中国

1972年的中国，仍是一个以农业为主、相对孤立且低收入的经济体。当尼克逊走下“空军一号”踏上北京土地时，他所到访的是一个贫困国家。

而今日特朗普面对的，则是一个全球经济强权——世界第二大经济体，并拥有在多个先进科技领域中，足以媲美甚至超越美国与西方的能力。

这一变化不只是程度上的差异，而是性质上的根本转变。特朗普所面临的核心挑战，体现在经济高度相互依赖、美国科技优势的流失，以及从“打中国牌”转向“遏制一个超级强权”的战略转换。

1. 从经济无关紧要到全面相互依赖

1972年，中国在美国经济版图中几乎可忽略不计；而今日，两国经济已成为“被绑在一起的双胞胎”，其风险程度，是尼克逊当年从未需要计算的。

2026年的访问，发生在一段徒劳无功的美中对抗期之后。这次美国不再是“把中国介绍给世界”，而是试图建立一种“共处之道”——在不滑向全面战争的前提下共存。因为过去五十年的接触政策，并未塑造出一个美国所期待的、顺从或温顺的中国。

地缘政治分析人士普遍认为，特朗普访华的时机，清楚体现了对中国“崛起地位”的战略性承认，其意义可分为以下几个层面：

2. 从对抗转向“大国”对等

2026年的访问，是紧接在2025年，一整年激烈的贸易战升级——关税水平达到历史高点。特朗普在第二任期伊始便安排正式对中国的国是访问，其释放出明确讯号：美国无法简单地绕过中国，或与之“全面脱钩”。

3. 经济与科技现实

这一时间点，反映出美国对自身在全球供应链与国际地缘政治中脆弱性的认知。就在2026年访问前，美中同意降低关税、放宽对关键矿产（如稀土）的出口管制，凸显出一个事实：美国需要中国的合作，才能维持自身的工业与科技体系。

此次访问亦旨在为全球市场提供“短期稳定”。近年来，全球市场对美中关系中你来我往的报复性措施高度敏感，而这一切，始于2017年后美国更具敌意的政治与经济政策。

4.全球领导力的互动格局

随著中国是2026年亚太经济合作组织（APEC）东道主，多项重大国际论坛会在中国举行，而美国此行，等同于默认中国已成为全球治理中的核心“节点”。

尽管美国持续透过印太战略联盟（如“四方安全对话”与“澳英美三方安全伙伴关系”）来制衡中国，但对北京的国是访问，确保了华盛顿仍能作为这区域主要经济引擎的“参与者”，而非试图将其拆解的局外人。

变化的总结

美国的挑战，已从地缘政治层面的“管理一个区域性角色”，演变为存在层面的“与一个全球同侪竞逐”。尼克逊所担忧的，是一个被孤立、充满愤怒的中国；而特朗普政策所反映的，则是对一个已深度融入世界、富裕且有能力重塑全球规则的中国之忧惧。

若特朗普总统仍欲实现其所承诺的美国“黄金未来”，那么今日的中国，是特朗普与美国即便无法拉拢并肩同行，也必须争取站在“同一边”的对象。

林德宜《凤凰挑战：从尼克逊到特朗普》原文：FENGHUANG Challenge : Nixon To Trump

In April 2026, President Donald Trump will undertake a trip to the People's Republic of China (PRC). Most observers view the visit as a significant recognition of China's rise in the world order that is reshaping geopolitics today. The picture of the US president visiting China first rather than the other way around is highly symbolic.

This visit comes just over 50 years after President Richard Nixon's pathbreaking visit in 1972 which was aimed at using China as an American wedge in the US confrontation with the Soviet Union.

The event in 1972 and following developments have been regarded as one of the most significant strategic pivots of the 20th century. Although propagated to the public as a "peace mission," it was a calculated move in realpolitik by the U.S., then undoubted leader of the world order, to reshape the Cold War's power structure and to reinforce the US dominant position.

Today, the Trump visit comes at a time when the U.S. has fallen from its high perch in the world order. It signals the end of the post-WWII binary world and the arrival of a multipolar era where the U.S. must negotiate its status especially with China, its global peer.

What Changed American China Policy In 1972

At the time of Nixon's visit, its architect, Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger’s overarching goal was to exploit the Sino-Soviet split. By improving relations with Beijing, he expected to make the Soviet Union anxious about a possible U.S.-China alliance. He also expected that the fear of being isolated would force Moscow to be more cooperative with the U.S. on arms control and European security. By making the U.S. closer to both China and the USSR than they were to each other, he thought this would effectively make Washington the "balancing" power.

A major immediate expectation was that China could help the U.S. extract itself from the Vietnam War. Kissinger hoped that by befriending North Vietnam’s most powerful ally, the U.S. could pressure the North Vietnamese to negotiate a peace settlement. Chinese assurance was sought that they would not intervene further as the U.S. began withdrawal from the region.

Kissinger was a realist who believed that a country of China's size could not be ignored without risking global instability.

Lastly, as Nixon famously wrote, they did not want 800 million people living in "isolation." Kissinger expected that bringing China into the international community would make its behavior less revolutionary and conform to America's standards.

The China Trump Faces Today 

In 1972, China had a largely agricultural, isolated and low-income economy. When Richard Nixon stepped off Air Force One in Beijing, he was visiting an impoverished nation. 

Today, Trump faces a China that is a global economic powerhouse with the world's second-largest economy and advanced technology sectors that are even better than American and western counterparts.

The shift in circumstances is not just a matter of degree, but of kind. The core differences that confront Trump lie in economic interdependence, loss of American technological superiority, and the transition from playing the China card to containing a superpower.

1. From Economic Irrelevance to Total Interdependence
In 1972, China was economically negligible to the U.S. Today, the two economies are "tethered twins," creating a level of risk Nixon never had to calculate.

The 2026 visit follows a period of fruitless U.S. confrontation. It is not about introducing China to the world but about establishing a "modus vivendi" - a way to live together without slipping into total war - given that the previous 50 years of engagement failed to produce a China that the U.S. wanted to be subservient or docile.

The timing of Donald Trump’s planned visit to China is viewed by geopolitical analysts as a clear strategic recognition of China's "ascendency”. Its significance can be broken down into several key areas:

2. Shift from Confrontation to "Great Power" Parity
The 2026 visit follows a year (2025) of intense trade escalations, where tariffs reached historic highs. By scheduling a formal state visit so early in the second term, Trump is signalling that the U.S. cannot simply bypass or "decouple" from China.

3. Economic and Technological Realities
The timing is indicative of the U.S. acknowledging its own vulnerabilities in global supply chains and in international geopolitics. The agreement to lower tariffs and ease export controls on critical minerals (like rare earths) just before the planned 2026 visit highlights that the U.S.needs Chinese cooperation to maintain its own industrial and tech sectors.

The visit is timed to provide "short-term stability" for global markets, which have become increasingly sensitive to the "tit-for-tat" nature of the U.S.-China relationship which began with America’s hostile political and economic policies especially after 2017.

4. Global Leadership Dynamics
As China hosts major international forums like APEC in 2026, the U.S. visit serves as a tacit acknowledgment of China’s role as a central "node" in global governance.

While the U.S. continues to build Indo-Pacific alliances to contain China (like the Quad or AUKUS), a state visit to Beijing ensures that Washington remains a "partner" in the region's primary economic engine, rather than as an outsider trying to dismantle it.

Summary of the Change

The challenge has evolved from geopolitical (managing a regional actor) to existential (competing with a global peer). Nixon feared a China that was isolated and angry; Trump’s policy reflects a fear of a China that is integrated, wealthy, and powerful enough to rewrite global rules.

Today's China is one that Trump and America needs to have on its side, if not by its side, for the U.S. to attain the golden future that the U.S. president has promised.

本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。