林德宜：上海与多极化全球秩序的兴起

世界各国领袖，包括我国首相安华，近日齐聚天津，出席被非西方媒体形容为“史无前例、关键且可能具有转型意义”的上海合作组织（SCO，简称上合组织）峰会，然而对此峰会西方媒体的反应却是带有偏见与立场性的报导。

这在一定程度上源于他们长期以来的论调：认为上合组织是一个威权国家的俱乐部，其发展乃至合法性都必须被抵制与打压。

部分美国和英国的主流媒体甚至拒绝派遣记者采访此次会议。另一些媒体仅在内页或社交媒体上稍作提及。少数具高度声望的媒体，则将会议描绘成西方治理体系面临的“生存威胁”与“动乱轴心”，以此引发读者的焦虑。

其实，为何西方领袖与智库对此次会议格外关注，并不难理解。与金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非及新成员）相呼应，上合组织已迅速成为挑战由美国及其西方盟友透过七国集团（G7）、北约、国际货币基金组织与世界银行所主导的全球秩序的最强大力量之一。美国亚洲盟友如日本、菲律宾等，并未受邀参加此次会议。

上合组织新兴制衡力量

以下几项特征，使上合组织成为国际关系与地缘政治格局中一个正在崛起的超级集团。上合组织虽然名称看似平淡无奇，却在地缘政治、经济及战略层面都拥有重要的影响力与分量。

● 广泛的成员国与人口规模
上合组织从地域与人口规模上言，是全球最大的区域性组织，其覆盖欧亚大陆80%的土地、占全球人口40%。目前有10个正式成员、2个观察国与14个对话伙伴，形成多元且具影响力的联盟。值得注意的是，部分东盟国家也意识到上合组织在全球政治与经济舞台上的重要性，柬埔寨、缅甸、马来西亚、泰国、越南皆派出领导人出席；印尼总统则因国内紧急事务临时取消行程。

● 经济潜力与资源掌控
截至2021年，上合组织占全球生产总值（GDP）的20%，掌握全球20%的石油储量与44%的天然气储量，尤其在2023年伊朗加入后。成员国间贸易往来庞大，例如2024年中国与上合组织其他成员的贸易额已达5124亿美元／2.1兆令吉。上合组织内部还推动能源俱乐部（2013年成立）及银行联合体，以加强能源合作与投资融资。

● 安全合作与反恐机制
上合组织透过“地区反恐怖机构”（RATS）在区域安全上取得显著进展，曾阻止多起恐怖袭击计划并摧毁恐怖份子的训练营。其重点打击“三股势力”（恐怖主义、分裂主义、极端主义）及毒品走私，据统计2012–2017年间，所查获的毒品占全球14%。

● 制度化与多边合作框架
上合组织以共识为决策基础，除地缘政治外，也推动交通、文化、教育与数码经济等合作。

挑战与潜能

上合组织强调“上海精神”——互信、互利、不结盟，呈现出有别于西方主导论坛的合作模式。

然而，其效能受限于多方面因素：

经济一体化成绩有限

金融改革面临技术与地缘政治障碍

成员间因利益冲突产生内部分歧，如中印边境争议阻碍了集体行动

缺乏统一的条约结构，加上共识模式限制了果断决策

这些由于国家利益冲突而产生的内部分歧、矛盾与竞争将会持续存在。然而，那些原本不认为上海合作组织能成为对抗西方主导、推动多极化世界秩序重要力量之分析人士，正开始修正他们的评估。”

龙象合流

有两个最新发展推动了这一评估的转变。

首先是中国印度关系的改善。印度总理莫迪七年来首次访华并出席此次会议，标志著两大国的和解。这不仅对双边关系产生深远影响，也提升了上合组织作为非西方声音平台的地位，强调国家主权、中立与不干涉原则。未来可以预期，中、俄、印、伊朗与土耳其将更集中精力于安全与区域稳定，并在反对北约扩张及其他西方主导的地缘政治倡议上采取更强硬的立场。

其次是美国总统特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”政策，特别是在贸易与经济领域。与金砖国家一样，上合组织强烈反对单边贸易措施，并自我定位为多边贸易的捍卫者。特朗普挑起的全球关税战才刚刚开始，但已严重削弱了全球贸易与经济秩序，加速了制度性分裂，削弱了美国及其盟友在全球治理中的主导地位。

当七国集团、北约等西方机构因内部分裂而陷入困境时，上合组织与金砖国家则逐渐成为维护国际正义与公平的新型多边选择。

结语

上合组织与金砖国家暂时无法立即取代七国集团主导的秩序，但无疑已提升了其在国际地位，推动世界迈向多极化，并为西方经济与地缘政治霸权提供替代方案。其能够吸引中等强国、资源丰富国家与“全球南方”国家，凸显出全球治理已进入一个更加分裂而复杂、但更公平、更能被多数国家接受的新阶段。

附注：上合组织成员构成

成员国：中国、俄罗斯、印度、巴基斯坦、伊朗、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克、白俄罗斯。
观察员国：阿富汗、蒙古。
对话伙伴：亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、巴林、柬埔寨、埃及、科威特、马尔代夫、缅甸、尼泊尔、卡达、沙地阿拉伯、斯里兰卡、土耳其、阿联酋。

林德宜《上海与多极化全球秩序的兴起》原文：Shanghai And A Multipolar Global Order Rising

As world leaders, including Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, converged in Tientsin recently for what non western media are describing as an unprecedented, pivotal and potentially transformative meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), their counterparts in the western world have responded with slanted and partisan reporting.

This arises in part from their long held mantra that the SCO is a club of autocratic countries whose development and even legitimacy need to be opposed and pushed back against.

Some mainstream United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (U.K.) media organisations have gone to the extent of refusing to send reporters to cover the event. Others have consigned brief mentions to the inner and least conspicuous pages of their papers and social media posts. A few of the most respected, on the other hand, have jumped on the event to provide their readers with alarming analysis of the latest ‘existential threat’ and ‘axis of upheaval’ to the western governance system.

Why western world leaders and their think tanks are paying special attention to this meeting should not be a mystery. Together with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and expanded members), SCO has rapidly emerged as the most formidable challenge to the prevailing global order dominated by the U.S. and its predominantly western allies through institutions like the G7 (Group of Seven), NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). Asian allies include Japan, Philippines and other countries not invited to the meeting.

Emerging Counterweight of SCO

The following features of the SCO make it an emerging superbloc in international relations and geopolitical dynamics. The grouping, though having an innocuous sounding name, possesses significant geopolitical, economic and strategic dimensions and clout.

● Expansive Membership and Demographic Weight
The SCO is the world's largest regional organization by geography and population, covering 80% of the Eurasian landmass and 40% of the global population. It includes ten full members, two observers, and fourteen dialogue partners, representing a diverse and influential coalition. Among ASEAN member countries cognisant of SCOs importance in the global arena of politics and economics and sending heads of state and heads of governments to the meeting are Cambodia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam; with the Indonesia President cancelling his trip due to urgent developments on the home front.

● Economic Potential and Resource Control
The SCO accounts for 20% of global GDP (as of 2021) and controls 20% of the world's oil reserves and 44% of natural gas reserves, especially after Iran's accession in 2023. Trade among SCO members is substantial; for example, China's trade with other SCO members reached $512.4 billion in 2024. Initiatives like the SCO Energy Club (established in 2013) and the SCO Interbank Consortium aim to enhance energy cooperation and investment financing among members.

● Security Cooperation and Counterterrorism
The SCO has made significant strides in regional security through its Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS). RATS has reported thwarting numerous planned terrorist attacks and dismantled terrorist training camps. It focuses on combating the
"three evils" (terrorism, separatism, and extremism) and drug trafficking, accounting for 14% of confiscated drugs worldwide (2012–2017).

● Institutionalization and Multilateral Frameworks
The SCO is structured around consensus-based decision-making. Apart from its geopolitical focus, it promotes cooperation in areas like transportation, culture, education, and digital economy

SCO Challenges and Potential

The organization emphasizes the "Shanghai Spirit" - mutual trust, mutual benefit, and non-alignment - which fosters a unique model of cooperation distinct from Western-dominated forums.

What has prevented SCO from being more effective has included the following 

● Limited economic integration record
● Technical and geopolitical barriers to financial reform initiatives
● Internal divisions arising from conflicting interests between members e.g.,the India-China border dispute has hindered cohesive action including on unrelated issues
● Institutional weakness arising from the absence of a unified treaty-based structure; and with its consensus model often limiting decisive action 

These internal divisions, differences and rivalries arising out of often competing national interests will continue. However, analysts previously unconvinced that SCO can become a formidable counterweight to Western dominance and the creation of a multipolar world order are beginning to revise their assessment.

Dragon and Elephant Convergence

Two developments have triggered this reassessment. The first is the rapprochement of India and China with Prime Minister Narendra Modi attending the meeting and making his first visit to China in 7 years. The improvement in relations between two leading countries of the world is having ripple effects across a wide range of international issues and fronts. Already among them is the positive impact on SCO as a platform for non-Western voices, emphasizing state sovereignty, neutrality and non-interference. We can expect to see SCO, led by China, Russia, India, Iran and Turkey, to focus on security and regional stability, and oppose NATO’s expansion and other Western-led geopolitical initiatives in the future even more strongly.

The second comes from President Trump's MAGA policies especially in the trade and economic field. Together with BRICS, SCO has opposed unilateral trade measures and positioned itself as a defender of multilateral trade. The global tariff war that Trump has started is just beginning. However,it has already severely undermined the global trade and economic order.

It is also accelerating institutional fragmentation.and weakened the dominance of global governance by the U.S. and its allies. As G7, NATO and other western supportive institutions struggle with internal divisions, SCO and BRICS are emerging as stable multilateral alternatives upholding international justice and fair play.

SCO and BRICS are not immediately replacing the G7-led order. But there can be no doubt that they are accelerating its erosion by promoting multipolarity and offering alternatives to Western economic and geopolitical dominance. Their ability to attract middle powers, resource-rich economies, and Global South nations underscores the structural shift that has taken place in global governance as the world moves toward a more fragmented and complex order that is more just and acceptable to the great majority of countries.

Note
The SCO's membership includes: 
Member States: China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.
Observer States: Afghanistan and Mongolia.
Dialogue Partners: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bahrain, Cambodia, Egypt, Kuwait, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.