林德宜：美国和欧盟对抗中国“产能过剩”

随著中国高附加值的工业与制造业出口在全球市场中占据日益重要的份额，美国与欧盟各自采取了看似独立、实则互补的政策，目标是对抗中国，这一对西方在国际贸易与经济秩序中主导地位前所未有的威胁。

华盛顿与布鲁塞尔对中国出口造成当地厂商影响的批评，目前主要集中于指责中国以国家主导、补贴驱动的出口型经济模式，导致产能过剩，并以廉价商品涌入其市场。

除了这种“产能过剩”的老调外，西方对中国还常见其他指控包括，不公平贸易行为、知识产权盗窃、市场干扰以及国家安全疑虑——因为中国的产品，如电动车、电池、太阳能板、风力涡轮机、船舶、电子设备与零件、钢铁与铝制品，乃至几乎涵盖所有日常消费与家用商品，正在西方市场站稳脚跟。

由于中国产品质量高、价格低廉，且优于西方本土及其他竞争对手，使到中国产品在西方市场备受欢迎，导致美国和欧盟国家在对华贸易数据中出现创纪录的逆差。这也引发了反华游说团体的要求，要修改国际贸易规则以确保西方的主导地位。

这些担忧对西方政府与政策制定者而言已严重到何种程度，可从一个迹象看出——中国所谓“产能过剩”问题已成为中美关税谈判中的核心议题。此外，该问题也是欧盟代表团在北京出席为纪念中欧建交50周年而举行的一日峰会期间，最为突出的关切事项。

这些谈判和会议最终会带来哪些政策变化还有待观察。

产能过剩：利弊参半，视人而异

独立市场分析师与国际组织如国际货币基金组织（IMF）普遍共识是，西方针对中国出口成就所提出的各种指控，根本毫无根据，或仅是站不住脚的说法。中国的出口成就是靠长期努力赢得的，主要归功于其庞大且有纪律的劳动力，以及对市场原则、规范与世界贸易组织（WTO）成员国义务的遵守，而非颠覆或规避。

世界贸易组织是全球最主要的政府间组织，负责规范国际贸易，自1995年成立以来，拥有166个成员国，涵盖了全球98%的贸易与全球生产总值。绝大多数成员国皆视中国为一个负责任的成员；相对地，美国近年单边主义抬头、关税武器化、对世贸组织规则公然无视，则被视为正在削弱这个全球经济体系中不可或缺仲裁者权威的叛徒。

熟悉中国工业与制造实力的评论者，包括在国际市场与中国竞争的企业领袖，也一致指出中国工业、制造与高科技生产体系日益展现出强劲的活力、规模经济、效率与竞争优势。许多西方业者甚至坦承，如果没有政府干预与设限，他们根本无法与中国对手竞争。

中国在国际市场上取得的进步可以归因于以下因素：

1.市场驱动的竞争力和创新

效率和供应链优势：分析员指出，中国的竞争优势，尤其是在新兴工业和可再生能源领域，源于卓越的创新、规模经济以及高度整合、高效的供应链，而非西方政策制定者所称的补贴或其他负面因素。这些分析也指出，许多西方企业根本无法在市场、经济或技术变量上与中国同行竞争。

技术进步：研究还指出，近期西方和中国工业发展的一个关键区别在于，中国优先投入大量资金进行研发，并快速推进技术进步，以此成为其生产能力的关键驱动力。

2.全球需求视角

回应全球所需：为中国辩护者认为，“产能过剩”应从全球视角来看。他们认为，尤其在气候变迁的大背景下，世界对绿色科技的需求极为庞大，而中国只是高效地在满足这项日益增长的全球需求。

暂时失衡：中国经济学者则指出，供需失衡是市场机制中正常的一部分，往往是暂时的，最终会由市场力量自我调节。西方长期奉为圭臬并从中受益的自由市场经济信条，应该坚持，而非因眼前不利就选择抛弃。

批评西方立场的市场观察者也在这场争议中提出以下几点考量：

1. 挑战“产能过剩”与“非市场”的定义

缺乏共识：他们指出，对于何为“产能过剩”或“非市场行为”，并没有一套全球公认的标准，使得这类指控显得模糊、主观，甚至带有伪善成分。

批评西方产业政策：观察者也特别指出，对中国电动车进入美国与欧盟市场所设的种种障碍，西方国家其实早已在各个被视为具有战略意义的领域，包括汽车产业，实施类似的产业政策与补贴，并至今仍在持续推行。这种做法显示出，西方对中国的批评本身存在双重标准。

2.中国出口的利好影响

带动全球发展的连锁效应：中国的工业品出口普遍被认为为全球各国带来了重大的经济机会，特别是金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非）以及新进成员国如阿联酋、埃及、衣索比亚、伊朗与沙地阿拉伯。这些国家因而得以更容易取得价格合理的商品、实现技术转移，并融入全球供应链体系。

3.全球扶贫贡献

中国的出口被视为对全球减贫具有重要助益，透过多种机制协助欠发达经济体，包括复制中国本身极为成功的扶贫模式。

平价商品与消费机会：中国的大规模生产，即使超出本国内需，也降低了全球单位生产成本，使世界各地的消费者，尤其是购买力有限的欠发达国家居民，能够以更实惠的价格取得商品。

基本生活物资更易取得：在衣物、基础电子产品、家用电器、农产品等民生必需品领域的“产能过剩”，反而让这些物品对低收入群体更为可及，有助于改善其生活水准并满足基本需求。

提升性价比：中国制造商日益重视在品质与价格之间取得平衡，让发展中国家的消费者也有能力购买过去无法负担的商品，拓展了可及性与选择空间。

或许，中国出口表现在全球经济体系中最重要的成果，是其为发展中国家的经济发展提供了关键投入。

发展中国家的工业领域普遍依赖进口中间产品与高科技零件；中国所谓的“产能过剩”，正好以具有竞争力的价格供应这些关键资源，降低了当地企业的生产成本，并促进更快速的工业成长。同时，也推动了一个新的工业与制造业时代的来临——金砖国家如今有机会打破西方及其盟友长期建立的霸权体系。

结论

我们所看到的是，中国的工业与制造业出口，即西方所指称的“产能过剩”，正在全球经济中造成一种复杂的利害局面——对已开发国家及中国竞争对手的制造商与劳工而言，整体效应偏向负面。

但与此同时，对于欠发达经济体及其新兴产业而言，则影响是复杂的，但总体效果是正向的——前提是这些国家能善加利用中国进口产品，在性能上超越西方及其他地区竞争对手，从而提升自立能力与市场竞争力。

同样不容忽视的是，全球消费者也从中国具成本效益、提升价值的工业化过程中受益，享有更低价格的商品。与此同时，中国的高科技绿色产品正加速全球迈向更永续的未来，有助于世界应对气候变迁挑战。

林德宜《美国和欧盟对抗中国“产能过剩”》原文：U.S. And E.U. Fight Against China’s ‘Over Capacity’

Western hostility towards China reflects the grudging realization that the West may not be the pinnacle of achievement after all. Rather than possibly learning from China’s successes， westerners have chosen resentment borne of a sense of frustrated superiority.“Why the West’s resentment of China is so misguided”

As China’s higher value industrial and manufacturing exports carve an increasingly larger share of markets， the United States (US) and European Union (EU) countries have undertaken separate but in reality complementary policies aimed at beating back this unprecedented threat to Western dominance of the international trading and economic order.

The criticisms levelled by Washington and Brussels to counter the Chinese exports impacting their domestic producers for now emphasize that China's state-led and subsidized export-driven economic model has created excess manufacturing capacity， flooding their markets with cheap goods.

Apart from the over-capacity charge refrain， also commonly featured are accusations of unfair trade practices， intellectual piracy， market disruption and national security concerns as Chinese products - electric vehicles， batteries， solar panels， wind turbines， ships， electronic devices and components， steel and aluminium products， and practically the entire range of
everyday consumer and household products - gain a foothold in Western markets. 

This popularity - on account of their quality， pricing and superiority over domestic and other rivals - has driven the US and EU nations into record deficits in their accounting trade figures with China. It has also given rise to demands by anti China lobbyists for changes to the rules of international trade to ensure Western dominance.

An indication of how serious these concerns have become for Western governments and policy makers is that the issue of alleged Chinese over capacity is a key subject of negotiation in the ongoing US and China tariff meetings. It also emerged as the most prominent concern of the EU delegation visiting Beijing for a one day summit to mark the 50th anniversary of China-EU diplomatic relations.

What policy changes can arise from these negotiations and meetings remains to be seen.

Over Capacity: Bane for Some，Boon for Others

The consensus amongst independent market analysts and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is that the charges levelled against China’s export success have little or no basis. This success has been hard earned and is due mainly to China's huge disciplined work force and adherence rather than subversion or evasion of the market principles， norms and practices required of World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries.

The WTO is the premier intergovernmental organization regulating international trade. In existence since 1995， it has 166 members who are responsible for 98% of global trade and global GDP. The great majority of member countries regard China as a responsible member country. On the other hand， the US with its recent unilateralism， weaponizing of tariffs and flaunting of WTO rules is seen as a renegade undermining the authority of an indispensable arbitrator in the global economic system 

Commentators with experience and knowledge of China's industrial and manufacturing prowess， including leaders of companies competing in the international markets， testify to the growing dynamism， economies of scale， efficiency and competitive advantages of China's industrial， manufacturing and hi-tech producers and workers. Many Western have conceded their inability to compete without their governments stepping in to keep out their Chinese rivals.

The advances made by China in international markets can be attributed to the following factors:

1. Market-driven Competitiveness and Innovation

* Efficiency and Supply Chain Advantages: Analysts note that China’s competitive edge， particularly in the new industrial and renewable sectors stems from superior innovation， economies of scale， and highly integrated， efficient supply chains， rather than from subsidies or any of the other negative factors cited by Western policy makers. They point out that many Western companies are simply unable to compete with their China counterparts on purely market， economic or technical variables.

* Technological Advancement: Studies also note that a crucial difference between recent Western and Chinese industrial development is that China has prioritized significant investments in research and development and rapid technological advancement to become key drivers of its production capabilities.

2. Global Demand Perspective

* Meeting Global Needs: China’s defenders have asserted that "overcapacity" should be viewed from a global perspective. They argue that the world， especially in the context of climate change， needs a vast amount of green technology， and China is simply meeting this growing global demand efficiently.

* Temporary Imbalances: Chinese economists have argued that supply-demand imbalances are a normal part of market mechanisms and are often temporary， with market forces eventually correcting them. The free market economic dogma long cherished by the West to its own advantage needs to be upheld rather than abandoned.

Market observers critical of the Western position have also drawn attention to these considerations in the controversy

1. Challenging the Definition of "Overcapacity" and "Non-Market"

* Lack of Consensus: They point out that there is no universally agreed-upon definition of "overcapacity" or what constitutes "non-market" activity， making the accusations vague， subjective and hypocritical.

* Criticism of Western Industrial Policies: Also highlighted especially in relation to the barriers being erected against the entry of Chinese EVs into the American and EU market is that Western countries have long employed， and continue to support similar industrial policies and subsidies in every sector deemed of strategic importance， including in the automotive industry. This suggests a double standard in the criticism against China.

2. Benefits of Chinese Exports:

* Stimulating Global Development Ripple Effects: China's industrial exports are generally acknowledged to have generated significant economic opportunities for countries around the world， especially in BRICS countries (Brazil， Russia， India， China， South Africa)， and new members such as UAE， Egypt， Ethiopia， Iran， Saudi Arabia， through enhanced access to
affordable goods， technology transfer，and supply chain integration.

3.Global Poverty Alleviation

* Chinese exports are seen as providing significant benefits to global poverty alleviation by assisting less developed economies through several mechanisms， including through replication of its highly successful poverty alleviation programmes

* Affordable Goods and Consumer Access: China's large-scale production， even if in excess of its domestic demand， has led to global lower unit costs. This translates into more affordable goods for consumers worldwide， particularly in less developed economies where purchasing power is limited.

* Increased Access to Basic Necessities: ‘Overcapacity’ in sectors producing essential goods like clothing， basic electronics， household appliances， and agricultural products have made these items more accessible to low-income populations， improving their living standards and addressing their needs.

* Enhanced Quality for Price: Chinese manufacturers are increasingly producing goods that offer a good balance of quality and affordability， allowing consumers in developing countries to access products that might otherwise be out of reach.

Perhaps the most important outcome of China’s export performance for the global economic system is that it is providing key inputs for developing countries' economic development.

Developing countries rely on imported intermediate and hi tech inputs for their industrial sectors. China's ‘overcapacity’ is providing these inputs at competitive prices and is reducing production costs for local businesses and fostering more rapid industrial growth. It is also contributing to a new era in industry and manufacturing in which BRIC countries have the opportunity now to break the established hegemony of the West and its allies.

Conclusion

What we are seeing is that China's industrial and manufacturing exports stemming from what the West alleges as overcapacity is creating a complex trade-off with net negatives for developed economies and their competing manufacturers and workers.

At the same time we are seeing mixed but generally net positives for less developed economies and their nascent industries that can become more self-reliant and competitive but only if they can leverage on Chinese imports that provide superior performance to competitors from the West and elsewhere.

Not to be disregarded is that global consumers are benefitting from the lower prices stemming from China’s cost efficient and value adding industrialization. Meanwhile China’s hi-tech green revolution products are paving a faster transition to a more sustainable future and helping the world meet the climate change challenge.