如果挪威诺贝尔和平奖评选委员会尚未审查今年和平奖提名人选，他们将会在不久后进行。这个令人关注且备受追捧的奖项，其结果一般会于十月初公布。
基于最近发生两场最血腥的战争，即加沙和乌克兰战争可能会结束，今年和平奖的获奖者将具有特殊意义。
即使不是透过谈判达成最终和可持续的和平解决方案，而只是临时休战，都足以阻止这两个杀戮战场的伤亡——尤其是在冲突可能扩大至当前领土之外，并且有可能将核武器卷入战争情况下——因此，美国总统特朗普即使不是最有希望获得和平奖的人，也可能是获奖的热门人选。这是因为特朗普在促成主要交战方会谈上面发挥了不可否认的领导作用，并且他向他们施加压力，要求他们达成最终的和平协议——即使该协议可能存在争议，甚至无法持久。
据挪威诺贝尔研究所称，今年已有超过300名个人和组织获得提名。按照惯例，获提名者的身分是不会公布的。然而，提名机构如学术组织、科学家、立法者和前获奖者可以公开他们推荐的人选。
获提名者是根据其在以下成就来考量的：
1. 促进和平协议：促进或促成冲突各方之间达成重要的和平协议。
2. 减少国际紧张局势：努力减少国家之间的紧张局势和潜在冲突。这可能涉及外交努力、条约或其他形式的谈判。
3. 人道主义努力：领导或支持减轻苦难、促进和平的大规模人道努力。这可能包括解决贫穷、疾病和流离失所等问题。
4. 裁军：倡议并在全球裁军特别是削减核武方面取得重大进展。
5. 促进民主和人权：在民主人权受到威胁的地区支持和促进民主、人权和法治。
6. 环境和平建设：努力将环境永续与和平建设连结起来，因为环境问题可能是冲突的根源。
7. 公共倡议：利用公共平台倡议和平非暴力，影响舆论和政策。
特朗普的支持者会辩称，特朗普是致力于结束这两场战争之最杰出领导人。他为和平所做的努力超越了天主教方济教宗，方济教宗早前备受看好，部分原因是西方媒体对他健康状况不佳的报道；另一个早前受看好者为前北大西洋公约组织（北约）秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格，他被挪威议会的议员提名不仅令人不安和震惊，因为他在欧洲和包括亚太地区在内的世界其他地区课题上一直是坚定的战争鹰派。
目前，特朗普获得了美国共和党众议员达雷尔伊萨的提名，达雷尔伊萨在社交媒体平台X上表示，他提名特朗普是因为“没有人比他更值得获奖”。
据伊萨办公室称，提名特朗普是基于其在中东的外交努力。然而，伊萨提名是在官方截止日期后呈交的，可能不会被接受。
和平奖受何左右
毫无疑问，和平奖的评选很大程度上受到挪威政府意识形态定位的决定性影响。
过去和平奖一些得奖者，是史无前例、出人意料且备受置疑，如2012年的获奖者欧盟 (EU)。这也包括了美国总统奥巴马，他上任总统几个月后就获授予和平奖，表彰他“为加强国际外交和各国人民之间的合作做出了非凡的努力”。
讽刺的是，随后奥巴马与其他北约成员国联手推翻了卡扎菲合法领导的利比亚政府，并加强美国对阿富汗的军事承诺，以及对叙利亚和也门发动多次空袭、造成近4000人死亡。挪威诺奖委员会秘书之后承认，奥巴马获奖是个错误，而奥巴马本人也在电视节目中承认，他不知道自己为何获奖。
为何特朗普不会得今年和平奖
挪威政府很可能反对将奖项授予特朗普，特别是如果俄乌战争和平协议导致俄罗斯控制了克里米亚地区，以及乌克兰被排除在北约外。遴选委员会成员是由挪威国会任命，理应保持独立，然而这些成员来自挪威各个政党，所谓的独立和中立似乎难于成立，也缺乏说服力。
挪威作为北约成员国，并在外交政策问题上与欧盟保持密切一致，其不仅致力于支持泽连斯基总统，还向乌克兰提供了大量军事和财政援助，特别是自2022年俄罗斯军事入侵乌克兰以来。
特朗普认为，泽连斯基正在拿第三次世界大战做赌注，但挪威政府及其他决心通过战争来实现和平的北约国家似乎对这一可能情境视而不见——显然，无论战争需要持续多久，北约和欧盟都将提供支持，以确保普京和俄罗斯屈服，而不是通过特朗普那种以停止大规模人员伤亡和基础设施破坏为目标的交易式外交来结束战争。特朗普的担忧——“我希望停止流血”——显然并不是欧盟和北约的优先事项或关切，因为他们并未直接参战，而俄罗斯则将这场冲突视为北约发动的代理战争。
意外得奖者？
如果评选委员会正寻找一位能让世界惊喜的全球政治人物作为今年的获奖者，他们应该考虑中国国家主席习近平。他在全球安全与发展方面的贡献，特别是通过“一带一路”倡议，提供了前所未有的全球互联互通；此外，他在金砖国家组织中的领导角色——该组织如今涵盖全球55%的人口，占全球生产总值（GDP）的46%——符合了和平奖项大部分（如果不是全部的话）公开列出的评选标准。然而，鉴于西方的政治偏见与反华政策，习近平将是最不可能获得诺贝尔和平奖的人。
林德宜《特朗普与习近平：谁更应得2025年诺贝尔和平奖》原文：President Trump Vs President Xi: Who Should Win The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
Shortly now, if not already taking place, the Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize selection committee will be examining nominations for this year’s winner. The result of this coveted and highly sought after prize is expected to be announced in early October.
This year’s winner will carry special significance in view of the possible ending of the two bloodiest wars waged in recent times - that in Gaza and Ukraine.
Should even a temporary truce if not a definitive and sustainable peace settlement be negotiated to stop the casualties and deaths in these two killing fields - with their threat of expansion beyond their current territories and the possibility of nuclear weapons being brought into the fray - a contender if not the favourite to win the prize is US President, Donald Trump. This is due to his undeniable leading role in bringing together the key combatants, and his pressure on them to arrive at whatever peace agreement is finally put in place - even if the agreement may be controversial and may not not last very long.
According to the Norwegian Nobel Institute over 300 individuals and organizations have been nominated for this year’s prize. By convention, the identities of nominees are not publicly announced. However, nominating bodies such as academic organizations,
scientists, lawmakers and former laureates are permitted to disclose their submissions.
Nominations are selected according to their achievement in relation to the following concerns:
1. Promote Peace Agreements: Facilitate or broker significant peace agreements between conflicting parties.
2. Reduce International Tensions: Work towards reducing tensions and potential conflicts between nations. This could involve diplomatic efforts, treaties, or other forms of negotiation.
3. Humanitarian Efforts: Lead or support large-scale humanitarian efforts that alleviate suffering and promote peace. This could include addressing issues like poverty, disease, and displacement.
4. Disarmament: Advocate for and achiev significant progress in global disarmament, particularly in the reduction of nuclear weapons.
5. Promote Democracy and Human Rights: Support and promote democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in regions where these are under threat.
6. Environmental Peacebuilding: Engage in efforts that link environmental sustainability with peacebuilding, as environmental issues can be a source of conflict.
7. Public Advocacy: Use public platforms to advocate for peace and non-violence, influencing public opinion and policy.
Trump’s supporters will argue that he is the most outstanding leader working to end the current military conflicts in both war torn regions; and that his work for peace surpasses that of Pope Francis, an early favourite in part owing to the western media coverage on his ailing health condition; and another early favorite in former North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg whose nomination by his fellow Norwegian colleagues in Norway's parliament is more than disquieting and shocking as he has been a consistent war hawk in Europe and elsewhere in the world including the Asia Pacific region.
For now, Trump has one nomination from US Republican congressman Darrell Issa who said on social media platform X that he had nominated Trump as “no one deserves it more”.
According to Issa’s office, the nomination was based on Trump’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. However, the nomination was submitted after the official deadline and may not be accepted.
What Influences The Peace Prize Award
No one should have any doubt that the peace prize selection is heavily and decisively influenced by the ideological positioning of the Norwegian government.
Winners have included the European Union (EU) in 2012 whose selection was unprecedented, unexpected and undeserving. They have also included US president, Barack Obama, who was awarded the prize just months into his presidency with the committee citing his "extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples".
Obama subsequently, with other NATO member countries, organised the overthrow of Muammar Gadaffi’s legitimate Libyan government and was instrumental in enhancing US military commitment to Afghanistan as well as launching numerous airstrikes in Syria and Yemen that killed close to 4,000 people. The secretary of the Norwegian Committee has subsequently indicated that the award to Obama was a mistake whilst Obama himself in a television programme has confessed that he did not know why he received the award.
Why Trump Will Not Win This Year’s Award
Likely to be against awarding the prize to Trump is the Norwegian government, especially if the peace agreement results in Russia taking control of the Crimean region and Ukraine is unable to become a NATO member. The selection committee itself is appointed by the Norwegian parliament and is supposed to be independent although with members representing the various political parties of Norway, the claim of independence and neutrality appears baseless and has little merit.
As a NATO member country and closely aligned with the EU on foreign policy issues, Norway has not only been committed to supporting President V. Zelensky but it has also provided Ukraine with substantial military and financial assistance, especially since following Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine in 2022.
Trump has argued that Zelensky is gambling with World War III but this possible scenario appears lost to the Norwegian government and other NATO countries determined to win the peace through more war - apparently however long the war needs to be continued with
NATO and EU support to ensure Putin’s and Russia’s capitulation - rather than through Trump’s transactional diplomacy aimed at stopping the massive losses in lives and infrastructure. Trump’s concern - “I want the bloodshed to stop” is clearly not a priority or concern of EU and NATO since they don't have their boots on the ground in what the Russians regard as a proxy war instigated by NATO.
A Surprise Winner?
Should the prize committee be looking out for a global political figure to surprise the world for this year’s award, they should consider China’s president, Xi Jinping, whose contribution to global security and development especially through his Belt and Road Initiative has provided unprecedented global connectivity; and together with his leadership role in the BRICS grouping now comprising 55 per cent of the world’s population and 46% of global GDP meets most, if not all, of the selection criteria publicly listed for the award. However, given the political partisanship and anti China policy of the West, Xi will be the most unlikely winner of the award.
公共政策分析学者
