随著乌克兰和加沙的两地战事逐渐缓和，迎来了微弱和平曙光，谁是赢家，谁是输家？世界又可从中吸取怎样教训？
首先，要强调的是战争是没有赢家的——无论是军事上的、政治上的还是从其他角度而言，尽管所谓独立的西方和亚洲媒体会让他们的读者相信事实并非如此。
除了那些在战争中丧生的兵士外，最令人震惊的是在战争和非战区中因火箭、飞弹和其他军事武器攻击而直接或间接丧生的人口。
乌克兰人、俄罗斯人、巴勒斯坦人、黎巴嫩人、以色列人都是伤亡者、受害者和失败者，估计人数达数百万，而且还在增加。参见下图：
巴勒斯坦卫生部表示，巴勒斯坦的实际死亡人数会更高，因为数千具尸体被埋在废墟下或医护人员无法进入的地区。在乌克兰，《经济学人》杂志根据泄漏或公开的情报记录进行计算，指乌克兰和俄罗斯丧生人口，比美国在韩战和越战中丧生人口的总和还多。
泽连斯基与内塔尼亚胡：赢家或输家
尽管乌克兰和以色列两位领导人被美国和西方盟国视为捍卫自由、和平与安全的不屈不挠的斗士，但他们不太可能得到历史甚至是本国人民的好评。泽连斯基和内塔尼亚胡不仅没有追求和平，而且一直以来拒绝和平倡议。他们一直坚信能够在军事上取得胜利。然而，他们的顽固和拒绝和平谈判的态度即将结束。
泽连斯基很快就会发现，在特朗普当选美国总统后，他的新立场相对于乌克兰所付出的代价而言是巨大的，因为乌克兰的重建计划至少需数十年。至于内塔尼亚胡，他一再声言“没有尽头的战争”和拒绝接受巴勒斯坦国，如果下一任以色列领导人不改变这立场，这会对以色列的下一代带来恶果。
大赢家
这两场战争的真正赢家是美国和西方军事工业复合体（MIC）。西班牙《国家报》报道指出，在这两场战争中，美国和欧洲主要军事装备制造商的市值在过去两年半飙升不少。金融和战略谘询机构Accuracy的一项研究也证实此论点，该研究分析了该行业七家主要美国公司以及北大西洋公约组织成员国 (NATO) 欧洲同行的表现。
非巧合的是，北约最初在乌克兰战争中发挥了关键作用，其将成员国资格扩大到前苏联国家，超出了美国和欧洲领导人对俄罗斯领导人所同意的范围。追溯最近解密的1990年文件，显示时任美国国务卿詹姆斯贝克、美国总统老布什、德国外长汉斯根舍、德国总理科尔、美国防长罗伯特盖茨、法国总统密特朗、英国首相撒切尔夫人、英国外长道格拉斯赫德、英国首相约翰梅杰等人，曾向苏联领导人保障北约不向前苏联国家扩张。当时的俄罗斯领导人是戈巴契夫和外长爱德华谢瓦尔德纳泽。
这项关于苏联解体和德国统一后的北约与俄罗斯关系，对当下俄乌战争起源提供了不同的视角，这有别于西方领导人和媒体将俄罗斯总统普京视为侵略者和煽动者。事实上，在俄乌战争上，北约负有主要责任，而西方媒体成功地向公众隐瞒了这项事实。
2022年2月俄罗斯挺进乌克兰后，北约成员国为乌克兰提供了大量军事和非军事援助，其结果是让泽连斯基远离谈判桌。
根据Accuracy报告，自俄乌战争于2022年2月24日爆发至今年3月，相关军事公司（被错误地贴上国防公司的标签，而实际上这些公司的产品是多用途的）的股票市值就增加了59.7%。这一涨幅远高于大西洋两岸基准股市指数（标普500指数和欧洲斯托克50指数）的同期涨幅，分别略高了13%和7%。
报告指出，美国公司是大赢家，这包括霍尼韦尔国际公司、RTX公司、洛克希德马丁公司、诺斯罗普格鲁曼公司、通用动力公司、L3哈里斯公司和亨廷顿英格尔斯公司。欧洲方面，战争赢家包括法国赛峰集团、达梭航空和泰雷兹；英国的贝宜系统；德国莱茵金属公司；意大利的莱昂纳多和挪威的康斯伯格集团。Accuracy合伙人伊格纳西奥利索（Ignacio Lliso）表示，他们之所以选择这些公司，因其业务深受“国防”部门影响。
此结果与斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所（SIPRI）的调查结果一致，该研究所发现，2023年全球军费开支为2兆4430亿美元（10.8兆令吉），比2022年增长6.8%，是2009年以来的最大增幅。同样，在2023年，全球政府国防开支占比为6.9%，世界人均军费开支为306美元（1354令吉），为1990年以来最高。
为了养活军工复合体和世界各地的国防公司而催化新战争很可能会持续下去。所需要的只是国家领导人支持美国和西方好战版本的“自由、和平与安全”。
军工复合体在澳洲和亚洲也非常活跃。他们准备在南海和台湾问题上挑起战争，而亚洲人将成为最大的受害者。
林德宜《乌克兰和加沙战争赢家和输家》原文：Winners and Losers in Ukraine and Gaza
As the two wars in Ukraine and Gaza grind to a halt and uneasy peace，who are winners and losers; and what are the lessons that the world can take away.
First there are no victors amongst the combatants - not military，not political or from any other angle，although so-called independent western and Asian media would have their readers believe otherwise.
Apart from those killed fighting the wars，what is more appalling has been the impact on those directly or indirectly in the way of the rockets，missiles and other military weaponry unleashed in war and non-war zones.
Ukrainians，Russians，Palestinians，Lebanese，Israelis are all casualties，victims and losers with estimates running into several millions and still counting.
War Casualties Estimates
Killed Wounded Displaced
Ukraine 60，000 to 100，000 400，000 3.5 million (6.8 million abroad)
Russia 70，000+ Unavailable Unavailable
Gaza 44，000 104，000 2 million
Lebanon 3，580 15，000 1.2 million
Israel 1，500 8，000 100，000
The Palestinian Health Ministry has stated that the Palestinian real toll is higher because thousands of bodies are buried under rubble or in areas that medics cannot access. In Ukraine，The Economist newspaper，basing its calculations on leaked or published intelligence records reported that Ukraine and Russia lost a greater share of their population than the U.S. during the Korean and Vietnam wars combined.
Zelensky and Netanyahu: Winners or Losers
Although lionized by US and western allies as indomitable fighters of freedom，peace and security，the two leaders of Ukraine and Israel are unlikely to be well regarded by history or even their own people. Both Volodymyr Zelensky and Benjamin Netanyahu not only failed to pursue but also spurned the offers of peace for the longest time. They have been insistent that they could win military victories. Their intransigence and refusal to sit at the negotiation table is now coming to an end.
Zelensky will soon find that his new position，following Donald Trump’s presidential victory，is too little too late in terms of the enormity of the cost to Ukraine which has a reconstruction programme that will stretch for several decades ahead. As for Netanyahu， his repeated promise of “war without end” and refusal to accept a Palestinian state will especially backfire on Israel's future generation if not renounced by the next Israeli leader.
The Big Winners
The real winners of the two wars are US and western military-industrial complexes (MIC). A report in Spanish paper， El Pais noted that the market value of the main military equipment manufacturers in the United States and Europe has skyrocketed over the past two and a half years in the wake of the two wars.
This was confirmed in a study by the financial and strategic consultancy organisation， Accuracy，which analyzed the performance of the seven main U.S. companies in the industry and their European counterparts from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries (NATO).
Not coincidentally， NATO played the key role in the Ukraine war initially by extending its membership to former Soviet Union countries beyond what had been agreed to by American and European leaders to Russia leaders. Recent declassified documents dating back to the 1990 reveal that security assurances against NATO expansion were made to Soviet leaders by James Baker， George Bush， Hans-Dietrich Genscher， Helmut Kohl， Robert Gates， Mitterrand， Margaret Thatcher， Douglas Hurd， John Major， and Manfred Woerner. Russian leaders then were Mikhail Gorbachev and Eduard Shevardnadze (See https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early).
This chapter of NATO and Russian relations following the breakup of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany provides a different analysis of the origins of the war in which western leaders and media point to Russian president Vladimir Putin as the aggressor and instigator. In fact，NATO bears primary responsibility which western media has successfully hidden from the public.
Following the Russian advance into Ukraine in February 2022，NATO member countries have mobilized a massive inflow of military and non military assistance to Ukraine， the effect of which has been to keep Zelensky away from the negotiation table.
According to the Accuracy report， the stock market capitalization of the military dependent companies- mislabeled to the public as defence companies when in fact their products are multi purpose- had increased by 59.7% from 24 February 2022，when the war in Ukraine began to March 2024. The rise is much higher than that of the benchmark stock market indexes on both sides of the Atlantic (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50)，which in the same period recorded increases of just over 13% and 7%，respectively.
U.S. companies that are big winners in the market according to the report are Honeywell International，RTX Corporation，Lockheed Martin，Northrop Grumman， General Dynamics，L3Harris and Huntington Ingalls. On the European side，the winner list of companies included France’s Safran， Dassault Aviation and Thales; the U.K.’s BAE Systems; Germany’s Rheinmetall; Italy’s Leonardo，and Norway’s Kongsberg Gruppen. According to Ignacio Lliso，a partner at Accuracy the companies they selected were those whose activity is heavily influenced by the ‘defense’ sector.
The findings accord with that of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) which found that global military spending in 2023 was $2，443 billion，a 6.8% increase from 2022. This was the largest increase since 2009. The average military expenditure as a share of government expenditure was 6.9% in 2023 and world military spending per person was $306，the highest since 1990.
It is very likely that the pressure for new wars to feed the MIC’s and defence companies of the world will continue. All that is required are leaders supporting the American and western war mongering version of ‘freedom， peace and security’.
The MIC complex is very active in Australia and Asia too. They are ready to start a war over the South China Sea and Taiwan issues in which Asians will be the biggest casualties.
公共政策分析学者
