有别于过往选举，特朗普的这次胜利引发了对全球地缘政治和地缘经济的狂热评论。首先，批评或蔑视特朗普的他国领导人不仅要放下自尊，许多人现在不得不低头，承认错判，公开撤回了先前的观点。
亚太地区最引人注目的例子，可能是来自澳洲，其前总理、现任澳洲驻美国大使陆克文可能会因特朗普而丢了饭碗。2020年，陆克文谴责特朗普是“史上最具破坏力总统”，而2022年，他又因特朗普赞扬俄罗斯总统普京而谴责特朗普是“西方的叛徒”。
在特朗普胜选后，陆克文立即删除了他个人和社交媒体帐户上的反特朗普帖子，澳洲反对党领袖彼得达顿对此回应指，预料陆克文会进一步尝试讨好美国新政府。
“他会去领带店，他会买红色（共和党代表颜色）领带，他会买红色帽子，他会订购那些MAGA（让美国再次伟大）帽子。他将尽一切努力讨好特朗普竞选团队。我们会看到，他会不懈努力。”
东盟国家的任何领导人都不太可能像美国的盟友那样，在美化特朗普及其即将上任的政府，并讨好特朗普的过程中，表现出马屁精和顺从的行为。
东南亚人对美国真实看法
东盟领导人不仅没有必要购买“让美国再次伟大”商品，特别是潜水艇和飞弹系统，也没有必要进一步讨好新任美国总统，我们完全有理由期望，在迎向即将到来的动荡时代，东盟成员国和领导人会坚持其独立和不结盟原则。
做为东盟2025年轮值主席国的马来西亚，首相安华确立了东盟未来四年外交政策立场的重要标志。安华在祝贺特朗普胜选的同时，也希望特朗普的胜利能为地缘政治带来正面变化，特别是结束加沙和乌克兰的冲突。
“我们欢迎美国对推动和平所采取的任何积极立场，特别是制止以色列对加沙的暴力袭击，并承认巴勒斯坦人民合法和不可剥夺的权利之努力。”
马来西亚作为2025年东盟轮值主席国，呼吁美国新政府改变拜登政府所奉行的以战争为导向的意识形态立场，这一立场在如今加沙和乌克兰战场，以及其他前总统执政期间为保住美国主导地位而挑起的战争中展现出来，马来西亚的呼吁不应视为不切实际或无用的。
尽管特朗普因其不可预测行事方式和火爆外交政策，而受到西方自由派媒体和智库的批评，但他先前在处理朝鲜及朝鲜领导人金正恩问题上，取得了前所未有的和平举措。
特朗普在竞选期间多次承诺要结束乌克兰战争。如果他的西方盟友和世界其他国家施加强大而持续的压力，他同样有可能终结加沙战争。
维护东盟的核心原则，意味著维护区域和平与安全。特朗普即使不同意，也能够且应该愿意接受这个立场。尽管他的竞选宣言是要让美国再次伟大，但他最终是一个商人、一个交易商人和现实主义者，对美国而言，在欧洲、中东和中国有更大的关注和问题需要处理。打倒美国深层政府和瓦解长期盘据华府的势力，将占用了特朗普大部分精力，并成为他最大的挑战。东盟在他的议程中排位相对较低且不重要。
同时，对特朗普的鹰派外交政策顾问来说，东盟是一股需要得到应有尊重的区域力量。东盟人口比北美多，在地缘政治上属于中等强国，但也是世界上最多元化、成长最快、最具竞争力的经济区域之一。东盟国内生产总额合计达3.8兆美元（约17兆令吉），是世界第五大经济体。2013年至2022年期间，东盟经济年增率为4.2%，预计未来十年成长同样强劲甚至更高。如果特朗普想要更强有力地制衡中国，他需要拉拢东盟靠向美国。
现实还在于，如果特朗普想让美国在这一地区恢复更受尊重的地位，他必须先认识到，东盟的许多人——可能是绝大多数人口——不认为美国是民主、自由、人权的榜样，也不认为美国是一股和平力量。尽管西方军工媒体不断宣传这种说法，但大多数人——包括美国人——都认为这是空洞的主张。
东南亚地区普遍对美国存有负面看法是有根据的。这不仅是因为其早年在越南的军事行动，蔓延到了寮国和柬埔寨，并导致超过100万中南半岛人丧生。
这也是由于美国在中东和其他地区的战争记录，以及对以色列在加沙的种族灭绝战争的支持，这对穆斯林以及其他非西方国家对美国的看法产生了不利影响。
东南亚人对中美的偏好
对于被拜登政府评估为美国最大的地缘政治和地缘经济竞争对手的中国，新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究所最近的一项调查发现，在美国和中国两者之间，超过一半的东南亚人偏好中国，而不是美国。
这份民意调查样本包括来自公共和私营部门的受访者，以及能够影响政策的研究人员和学者。
菲律宾是东盟国家中最亲美的国家，因为其与美国有悠久的历史连接，而且有大量菲律宾人在美国有亲戚，或者他们的生计依赖美国在菲律宾的军事基地，如果把菲律宾排除在外，整个结果会是一面倒偏好中国。特朗普的政策顾问最好也能提醒总统，东南亚40%以上的人口是穆斯林。
特朗普要让美国变得更好——伟大在许多方面将是一个无希望的野心——唯一方法则是专注于解决分裂美国社会的国内问题，而不是努力去强化美国在世界上已经无可挽回，逐渐丧失的卓越地位。特朗普将著名的战争鹰派人物黑利和蓬佩奥排除在新政府之外，这是一个充满希望的迹象，表明他可能会出人意料地帮助美国在外交领域建立一条以和平为导向的道路，也同时美化其历史地位。
林德宜《别让特朗普政府欺负东盟》原文：Don’t Let Trump Administration Bully ASEAN
As Trump Returns to Power, Allies and Adversaries Expect a Wave of Revenge
Donald Trump's presidential victory has generated a frenzy of commentary on global geopolitics and geoeconomics unlike any previous election. For a start, leaders critical or contemptuous of Trump have had not only to swallow their pride. Many have now publicly retracted their earlier opinions and started to eat crow.
Possibly the most striking example in the Asia Pacific region comes from Australia in which its former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, currently Australia’s Ambassador to the United States may have lost his job. In 2020, Rudd condemned Trump as the “most destructive president in history” while in 2022 he denounced Trump as a “traitor to the West” for praising Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Immediately after Trump’s victory, Rudd purged his personal and social media accounts of his anti-Trump posts - an action which Peter Dutton, Australia’s opposition leader responded to by predicting that Rudd would follow up with further attempts to ingratiate himself with the new government.
“He’ll be down at the tie shop, he’d be buying up red ties, he’d be buying red hats, he’ll be ordering those MAGA hats. He will do everything he can to ingratiate himself with the Trump campaign. So he’s indefatigable, as we know.”
None of the leaders in the Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN) are likely to engage in the brown nosing and submissive behaviour that we are seeing from allies of the US in their efforts to apple-polish Trump and his incoming administration, and to curry favour.
What Southeast Asians Really Think of the US
Not only is there no need for ASEAN leaders to buy MAGA merchandise especially submarines and missile systems or to ingratiate themselves further with the new US president, there is every reason we can expect ASEAN member countries and leaders to uphold the organisation’s independent and non aligned principles in the tumultuous era that lies ahead.
An important marker for ASEAN’s foreign policy stance for the next four years has already been established by Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim. While congratulating Trump on his remarkable comeback victory, Anwar expressed the hope that Trump’s victory would bring positive changes in geopolitics, particularly to end the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
"We will welcome any positive stance by the United States towards peace, particularly efforts to halt Israel's violent attacks on Gaza and to acknowledge the legitimate and inalienable rights of the Palestinian people."
This call by Malaysia as the incoming chair of ASEAN in 2025 for the new US administration to change its war-oriented ideological position pursued by the Biden administration, and presently playing out in respect to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and elsewhere where earlier presidents have sought to reinforce American dominance, should not be regarded as unrealistic or futile.
Although criticised by western liberal media and think-tanks for his unpredictable ways and combustible foreign policy, Trump previously undertook an unprecedented peace initiative in dealing with North Korea and its leader Kim Jong Un.
During his recent campaign Trump repeatedly promised to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. It is equally possible that he will do the same in Gaza if there is strong and sustained pressure from his western allies and the rest of the world.
Standing up for ASEAN’s core principles means standing up for regional peace and security. This is a position which Trump, even if he disagrees with it, can and should be willing to live with. Despite his election rhetoric of making America great again, he is ultimately a businessman, a transaction wheeler dealer and realist with bigger concerns and issues to deal with in the United States, America, Europe, the Middle East and China. Draining the deep state and Capital Hill swamp may well take up most of his time and be his biggest challenge. ASEAN will be relatively low and unimportant in his agenda.
At the same time the reality for Trump’s hawkish foreign policy advisers is that ASEAN is a regional force that needs to be given due respect. With a larger population than North America’s, ASEAN is a middle level power in geopolitics but it is one of the world’s most diverse, fastest growing and competitive economic regions. The combined gross domestic product of US$3.8 trillion makes ASEAN the fifth largest economy in the world. During the period 2013-2022, ASEAN’s economy grew at an annual rate of 4.2% and is expected to grow just as or more strongly in the coming decade. Should Trump want a stronger counterweight to China, he will need ASEAN to be on his side.
The reality is also that should Trump want to restore the US to a more respectable standing in this part of the world, he has to begin with the recognition that many in ASEAN - possibly the great majority of the population - do not see the US as a role model for democracy, freedom, human rights and as a force for peace. This representation is regarded by most people - including Americans - as a hollow claim though ceaselessly propagandised by the western military-industrial-media complex.
The prevailing dark view of the US in Southeast Asia is well founded. It is not only because of the recent history of its military campaign in Vietnam which spilled over into Laos and Cambodia and killed more than a million of the Indochinese population.
It is also due to the US’s war record in the Middle East and elsewhere and its support of the Israeli genocidal war in Gaza which has adversely affected Muslim as well as other non-western opinions of the US.
Alignment Preference of Southeast Asians
With regard to China which the Biden administration assessed as America's greatest geopolitical and geoeconomic rival, a recent survey of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute found that over half of Southeast Asians preferred alignment with China over the US.
Its polling sample included respondents from the public and private sector, and researchers and academics who are in a position to influence policy.
If the poll numbers from the Philippines, the most pro-American among ASEAN nations because of its history and the large population of Filipinos with relatives in the US or dependent for their livelihood on US military bases in the Philippines, are discounted, the finding would be more lopsided in favour of China. Policy advisers of President Trump will do well to point out to him that more than 40% of the population of Southeast Asia is Muslim.
The way for Trump to make America better - great is in many ways a hopeless ambition - is to focus on dealing with the domestic issues that divide US society. It is not to engage in efforts to enforce the primacy of a nation whose preeminent standing in the world has been irretrievably lost. Trump’s exclusion of Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo, well known war hawks, in his new administration is a hopeful sign that he may, against all expectations, help build a peace-oriented road for the US in its foreign policy to embellish his place in history.
公共政策分析学者
