4位好友再次相聚咖啡店讨论新古毛补选结果和世界时事。

阿德里安:很高兴大家再次聚在一起。还记得上周我们对新古毛补选的打赌,看谁会为这一桌茶水付账?

来,结果是:

最大赢家:阿里
最大输家:阿南
第二名:阿德里安
第三名:阿明

阿里(笑):你知道,我读到的所有权威分析员都预测希盟会爆冷输掉,或者充其量是微弱胜出。

阿明:是啊,我也读了,幸好我做了对冲,否则我今天就得请你们了。我听说华裔选民不会出来;他们对行动党感到愤怒;他们想给希盟一个教训。可是──这些所谓的“专家”这次都错了。

阿南:哎呀!我更惨。媒体上的大量报导不仅来自网军和“即时专家”,也有来自印裔过气政客和分析人士。他们不仅说印裔选票肯定会反希盟。甚至有人说,印裔可能成为选举中的造王者。他们也呼吁印裔选民用手中一票向首相和团结政府表明,不要将印裔选票视为理所当然。

阿德里安:我还看到一个数字,指印裔选民占选民总数约20%。事实上,不只是印裔分析员这么说。马来智库分析员,甚至一些华人前政治人物也如此认为。其中一人更声称希盟最多只能以不到1000票的优势获胜。其他人则表示,印度人基于种种理由,这次倾向会变化很大。

阿里:坦白说,无论出于何种原因离开了原有政党的政客都无需再发表政见,因为每个人都知道他们有自己的议程,只是在搏宣传。

阿德里安:对,这就是廉价的宣传。问题是我们的媒体继续为这些过时者提供空间。

阿里:你知道,在我的另一个聊天群组中,我们都想知道首相会如何应对新古毛补选。有些人期待他能下场助选并反击反对党。但群组里我最尊敬的人Pak Man说:首相有更大的课题去关注,他没必要去掺合。无论补选结果如何,对他、对希盟来说都不会有任何影响。Pak Man说得绝对正确。

阿德里安:我也同意。你知道,有一句话,有钱能使鬼推磨。这就是希盟获胜的主要原因。公务员加薪无疑起到了关键作用。

其他人:大笑。

阿里:所以你们要知道,公务员选票才是真正的游戏规则改变者。

阿明:是的。我在观察新古毛补选成绩时,很明显,警员和军人的选票大部分都投给了希盟。

阿南:实际上,不只是警队和军队人员。如果包括教师、医疗人员和所有政府部门,可能有接近200万名公务员,其中至少80%是土著。我们印裔选民肯定寡不敌众!只有100万人口的印裔。如何对比200万人?

阿里:来吧,阿南。首相安华说他会照顾大家的,给他一个机会和一些时间好吗。

阿南:同样的老话,同样的台词。那么阿里,你认为接下来大马政治会如何发展?您还认为绿色浪潮会胜吗?

阿里:有人说民心开始转变倾向希盟。不过也有人认为现在言之过早,真的。还记得2018年,当时反对党对国阵的指控,最终击垮了国阵。

阿明:是的,下一届2028大选还有很久。有人说过,在政治上,一周是很长的时间。我确信首相不仅关心选举,还关心更多事情。我听说他最喜欢的一句中国名言是“虎死留皮”。

阿德里安:哇……那又怎样?蛇也会死并留下皮。有人说第十任首相是政治变色龙!

阿明:嘿;少安勿躁,我还说完呢

阿南德:然后?

阿明:中国那句俗话是这样的,虎死留皮,人死留名。

阿里:哇!哇!这对我们所有人来说都是一件好事。

阿德里安:同意。阿南,今天就你请客。下次运气好点吧

阿里:你知道,我们在这里真的很幸运。与加沙处境相比,我们的问题根本不算什么。

阿明:是的,你知道吗,马来西亚将因其在巴勒斯坦和以色列课题上的立场而受到制裁。

阿德里安:这样吧,朋友们,我们下一个主题就是马来西亚人在以巴课题上的立场,特别是美国人正在对付我们。下一轮就由我请吧。但我们应该为巴勒斯坦处境,给予捐助或贡献。

全部人:同意

林德宜《咖啡店闲聊:新古毛补选成绩》原文:Kopitiam Malaysia Chat:KKB by-election

Our 4 good friends meet at Kopitiam Malaysia to discuss the KKB by election result and world affairs 

Adrian: So gang, good to have everyone around again. Do you remember that we had a bet last week about the KKB by election to see who would buy kopi and belanja everyone?

Well, here is the result
Biggest winner: Ali
Biggest loser: Anand
Second place: myself
Third Place: Ah Beng

Ali (laughing): You know, all the high powered analysts I was reading were predicting an upset or at best a narrow victory for Pakatan.

Ah Beng: Yahlah. I also read. Luckily I hedged my bet otherwise I have to treat you today. I heard the Chinese voters will not come out; that they were pissed off with DAP; that they wanted to teach Pakatan a lesson. Boy - these so-called sifu were wrong this time 

Anand: Aiyah!. I got caught even worse. So much in the media from not only the cyber troopers and instant experts but from former Indian politicians and analysts. Not only did they say that the Indian vote would definitely be against Pakatan. Some even said that the Indians could become the kingmakers in the election. They also called on Indian voters to show to PMX and the unity government not to take the Indian vote for granted.

Adrian: I also read the figure that India voters were 20% of the registered voters. In fact, not only the Indian analysts were saying that. But also the Malay think tank analysts and even former Chinese politicians. One of them claimed that Pakatan would - at best - win by less than 1,000 votes. Others said that the Indians have become “emotional” voters and that this was for good reason.

Ali: Frankly, politicians who have left their party for whatever reason don’t need to give their two cents worth because everyone knows that they have their own agenda and are simply looking for publicity. 

Adrian: Yahlah. Cheap publicity is the word. The problem is that our media continue giving space to these has-beens 

Ali: You know, within my other chat group, we were wondering how PMX would take up the KKB challenge. Some were expecting him to turun padang and whack the opposition. But the one I most respect in the group, Pak Man, said: PMX has got bigger ikan to goreng. No need for him to be seen as desperate and fighting hard in a by election. Whatever the result won’t make any difference really either to him, to Pakatan. Pak Man is absolutely right 

Adrian: Agree too. You know, there’s a saying. Money talks, bullshit walks. That’s mainly why Pakatan won. Definitely the pay rise for civil servants played a key role

Everone else: Big laugh.

Ali: Okay. But you guys need to be reminded that the civil service share of voters in the country is the real gamechanger, okay.

Ah Beng: Yeah. I was monitoring the early results and it was very clear that the police and army votes were mostly going to Pakatan

Anand: Actually, it is not only policy and army staff. If you include teachers, healthcare,all the ministries, maybe close to 2 million civil servants and 80 percent at least are Bumi. We Indian voters are outnumbered! We have 1 million. How to lawan against 2 million?

Ali: Come on Anand. PMX has said that he will take care of everyone, okay. Give him a chance and some time.

Anand: Same old, same old line. So Ali, what do you think will happen next? Do you still think the green wave will win?

Ali: Some say that the tide has turned for Pakatan. Others say that it is too early to say anything, really. Remember in 2018, the late opposition charge upset BN.

Ah Beng: Yes. GE 2028 is a long way off. They say that a week is a long time in politics. I am sure PMX has not only elections on his mind but also much more. I hear that one of his favourite Chinese quotes is that a tiger dies and leaves behind his skin.

Adrian: Wow… so what? Snakes also die and leave behind their spin. Some say that PMX is a political chameleon!

Ah Beng: Hey; haven’t finished yet

Anand: What then?

Ah Beng: The Chinese proverb goes like this. A tiger dies and leaves behind his skin; a person dies and leave behind his name

Ali: Wow! Wow! That’s a really good one for all of us.

Adrian: Agree. Anand; today you treat us, okay. But better luck next time 

Ali: You know, we are really lucky here. Our problems are nothing compared with what is happening in Gaza.

Ah Beng: Yes, and you know what, Malaysia is going to be sanctioned for the country’s position on the Palestinians and Israel.

Adrian: Okay guys? The topic of our next is where do we Malaysians stand on this issue, especially since the Americans are coming after us. I will belanja everyone for the next round. But we should all in the meantime contribute to any Palestinaian fund or effort

All: Setuju

林德宜

公共政策分析学者

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