现代历史上没有哪个国家如俄罗斯般在俄乌战争上面对如此结合著军事和非军事之行动,来自欧洲和世界其他国家施加的各种形式压力和制裁,要确保俄罗斯在军事和政治上都失利。

从2022年4月26日,由41个国家召开首次会议,联手对抗俄罗斯,到2023年2月14日举行的援助乌克兰会议上,援乌抗俄联盟扩大到了54个国家(北约全部30个成员国和另24个国家)。

除匈牙利、塞浦路斯和马耳他外,所有欧盟成员国均透过欧盟机制单独或集体给予了军事援助。然而,这不只是一场欧洲战争。

这联盟中最亲乌克兰、最反俄罗斯的国家就是美国。自战争爆发以来,拜登政府已向乌克兰提供了超过440亿美元(2042亿令吉)的军事援助。这比紧随其后的四个捐献最大的欧洲国家——德国、英国、挪威和丹麦——的总和还要多。

根据最新统计,美国已花了超过750亿美元(3481亿令吉)来支持泽连斯基政府,并继续批评者所指的代理人战争。这场战争牺牲的是乌克兰人民,而美国军队并没有像美国最近发动的其他战争般直接参战。

拜登多次表示:“我们不会让美国军队在俄罗斯作战或对抗俄罗斯。”

美国总统已经向美国人和世界表明,美军不会参与俄乌战争,但美国却会介入,这是拜登的首要任务,也是美国从阿富汗战争中吸取教训后的战略。

这是因为,如果美军直接参战带来伤亡,美国民众就不可能支持这场战争。

因此,拜登指望乌克兰继续与俄罗斯作战。进而,美国愿意投入巨大资源和资金来持续对俄罗斯的战争。美国的参与包括为乌克兰军队提供资金、训练和军事补给,协助乌克兰锁定俄罗斯军队、击沉俄罗斯战舰和炸毁俄罗斯军事设施。

为何美国在另一个大陆──欧洲大陆上领导这场战争,并参与这场被批评者认为,这是美国不应介入或左右局面的战争,原因是多重的。

首先,美国把这场战争视为美国主导的对苏联冷战的延续。冷战是过去50多年来全球地缘政治的重要斗争。即使在苏联解体之后,这种情况仍在继续,从美国领导的北约针对俄罗斯的政策和行动中可见一斑。

在俄乌战争持续当儿,西方和全球民众都忽略了这样一个事实:美国和北约的背叛与违诺,是促使普京在克里米亚地区采取军事行动,从而引发了俄乌战争的关键因素。

在2007年慕尼黑安全会议上演讲时,普京指责西方列强违反了庄严承诺,大幅扩张北约,尤其是让波罗的海国家于2004年加入北约。

普京的重点是:“我们的西方伙伴在华沙集团解体后做出的保证去了哪里?”

尽管普京多次表达关切并警告俄罗斯合法利益和安全受到侵犯和侵蚀,但北约并未停止扩张。自苏联解体以来,北约成员国已从1990年的17个国家增加到如今的30个,其中包括一些曾是苏联领导华沙集团时的成员国。

除了鼓动北约的反俄政策、将北约成员国扩大到俄罗斯边境外,美国还支持针对莫斯科邻国的“颜色革命”,破坏了俄罗斯与邻国历史悠久的关系,更拒绝与莫斯科就安全政策进行协商。

第二个主要原因是,这场战争对美国军事工业和军事承包商来说就像是中了大彩票。美国五角大厦(国防部)在阿富汗战争上花费了13兆美元(约60兆令吉),其中估计有1/3到一半流入了军事承包商手里。在美国证券交易所上市的五家大公司——洛克希德马丁公司、波音公司、通用动力公司、雷神公司和诺斯罗普格鲁曼公司──都是过往战争主要受益者,并将继续从乌克兰战争中受惠。

由于乌克兰也得到了北约和其他盟国的军事和财政支持,五角大厦对乌克兰支援将大大减少。然而,美国军事工业和军事承包商将继续成为这场战争的主要受益者。2018年至2022年期间,美国估计占全球武器出口的40%。一些国家军备和军事承包商,也会从俄乌兰战争中受惠,这包括法国、英国、西班牙、德国、意大利、以色列、日本和韩国。

维基百科上列出了过去两年为乌克兰提供军事援助的完整清单

该贴文也详列了日本和韩国这两个亚洲国家在支持美国外交政策下提供的军事援助。

美国希望俄乌战争继续下去的第三个主要原因是,美国认为这场战争是有必要的,以削弱中俄联盟。2023年10月12日,美国国会任命的一个包含共和党和民主党两党成员的小组坚持认为,华盛顿必须透过扩大常规军事力量、加强联盟关系和提升核武现代化计划,为可能与莫斯科和北京同时开战做好准备。

俄乌战争的持续和俄罗斯的失利将意味著中国会失去一个关键的战略伙伴,来对抗美国打压中国的政策。

 

林德宜《为何美国希望俄乌战争持续》原文:Why The U.S. Wants the Ukraine War to Continue

No country in modern history has been subject to the combination of military and non military action which Russia is experiencing in Ukraine, Europe and elsewhere in the world where various forms of pressure and sanctions have been applied to ensure a Russian military defeat and political capitulation.

A first meeting of 41 countries on 26 April 2022 against Russia has since been enlarged to a larger coalition of 54 countries (all 30 member states of NATO and 24 other countries) at a meeting of countries contributing to Ukraine's war against Russia held on 14 February 2023.

All European Union member states have donated military aid both individually and collectively via EU institutions, except for Hungary, Cyprus and Malta.However, this is far from being a European war.

The country that has emerged as the most pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia in the coalition is the United States. The Biden administration has provided more than US$44 billion in military assistance for Ukraine since the war started.This is more than the next 4 European country's largest contributors combined - Germany, Britain, Norway and Denmark.

At last count, the US has spent more than US$75 billion to ensure that the Zelensky government is kept alive and continues to fight what critics have described as a proxy war. It is a war that is seen to sacrifice the Ukrainian population but does not have US troops directly engaged as has happened elsewhere in the recent wars that the US has waged.

Biden has repeatedly stated: "We do not seek to have American troops fighting in Russia or fighting against Russia."

The US president has made it clear to Americans and the rest of the world that keeping US troops out of the war, while at the same time engaged in it, is his first priority as well as the American strategy after learning from the war in Afghanistan.

This is because there is no way the American public will support the war if US participation leads to casualties returning to America in body bags.

Hence Biden is counting on Ukraine to continue to fight the Russians. Thus extraordinary efforts and sums are being spent by the US to keep the war against Russia going. US involvement includes financing, training, and supplying Ukraine's military, helping Ukraine to battle Russia through targeting the Russian army, sinking Russian ships, and blowing up Russian military installations.

Why the US is leading in this war in a different continent and one which critics say the US really should have no business in intervening or determining its outcome is due to a combination of factors.

The first is that the US has made it a continuation of the US led Cold War against the Soviet Union. The Cold War war was the centre place of global geopolitical battle for over 50 years. It continues today even after the breakup of the Soviet Union as seen in the US-led, NATO policies and actions against Russia.

While continuing this war, the Western and global public have been kept ignorant of the fact that it is US and NATO betrayal and broken promises that played the key role in Putin's decision to act in the Crimea region which triggered the war in Ukraine.

In a speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, Putin accused Western powers of violating a solemn pledge by considerably enlarging NATO – most notably with the Baltic countries joining the Alliance in 2004.

His concern : "What happened to the assurances our Western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?"

Despite Putin's repeated expressions of concern and warning that Russian legitimate interests and security concerns were encroached upon and eroded, NATO has not stopped expanding. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO membership has grown from 17 countries in 1990 to 30 today, and includes several countries which were once part of the Soviet-led Warsaw pact.

In addition to American encouragement of NATO anti Russian policies and expansion of NATO membership to Russia's borders, the US has also supported "colour revolutions" against Moscow's neighbours, undermined Russia's historic relationship with its neighbours and refused to negotiate with Moscow over security policies.

The second major reason is that the war is like a big lottery win for the US armament industry and US military contractors.The US Pentagon spent US$13 trillion for its war in Afghanistan with one-third to one-half of the total estimated to have gone to military contractors. Five major corporations listed in the US stock exchange - Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman - were major beneficiaries in the past and will continue to prosper from the war in Ukraine.

The Pentagon will spend much less in Ukraine against Russia since it has roped in the military and financial support of NATO and other allied countries. However the US armament industry and US military contractors will continue to be the main beneficiaries of the war windfall. During the period 2018 to 2022, the US was estimated to be responsible for 40% of the world armament exports. Other national armament and military contractor beneficiaries of the Ukraine war include those from France, UK, Spain, Germany, Italy, Israel, Japan and South Korea.

A full list of military aid provided to Ukraine in the last two years is available in wikipedia.

This post also provides details of the military assistance provided by Japan and South Korea, the two Asian nations, supporting US foreign policy.

A third major reason as to why the US wants the Ukraine war to continue is that it sees the war as necessary to cripple the Russo-Sino alliance. On 12 October 2023, a bipartisan panel appointed by the U.S. Congress maintained that Washington must prepare for possible simultaneous wars with Moscow and Beijing by expanding its conventional forces, strengthening alliances and enhancing its nuclear weapons modernization programme.

Continuation of the Ukraine war and defeat of Russia will mean that China will be left without a key strategic partner to fight against the US policy to take down China.

林德宜

公共政策分析学者

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