林德宜：MUDA和第三势力

自1957年以来，马来西亚就一直存在著两个联盟对阵的形式。来临的第15届大选会否见证政治中的新气象——一个相对新的，甚至有些人会视为蚊子党的第三个联盟崛起？

民兴党主席沙菲益阿达最近表示，其政党愿意与任何获得人民认可的政治联盟合作。大马民主联合阵线（MUDA）和“独立行动”联盟（Gerak Independent）的领导人也发表了类似的声明。马来西亚社会主义党（PSM）对国家社会经济问题一直都有其可持续和发展的替代政策方案，也不断与站在执政联盟对立面的政党合作。

由于公正党在数场选举中表现每况愈下，民兴党、MUDA、独立行动联盟和社会主义党在即将到来的大选中展开合作，甚至结盟，是颇具意义的。这样的新组合，具有吸引选民的优势。

例如，民兴党和MUDA在沙巴和半岛开展合作，MUDA可以专注于争取青年选票。社会主义党在下层阶级和边缘化社区的斗争拥有历史。独立行动已宣布在来届大选推荐数名候选人，以吸引厌倦了现有执政联盟和反对联盟的城市中产阶级。

新面孔能否有所作为

这个联盟也有一小批政治名人，如前沙巴首长沙菲益；律师和人权份子茜蒂卡欣；前部长和UNDI18运动推动人之一赛沙迪，前和丰国会议员再也古玛和沙巴州前行政议员王鸿俊，这些都可以领导第三势力的竞选活动。

这个多元种族的年轻领导层，绝对可以为那些对国家老一辈失败领导人感到失望的选民，提供摆脱以往选举心态的机会。

因此，新联盟及其领导人能否带来新的思想和动力，让马来西亚摆脱裙带关系、腐败、阶级、种族和宗教的束缚，并重新燃起过去“烈火莫熄”时代的热情和火花。

首先，这股新势力应该在全国各地主办标志性群众大会，以争取全国民众的支持和引起选民的关注。将自己定位为一个多元族群、包容、以青年为导向的联盟，将照顾人民的福祉，这股新势力可以为年轻和年长的选民，提供乐观和希望愿景，即通过民主选举，能带来真正的改革，改善人们的日常生活。

新的联盟必须关注年轻人和边缘群体。这股新政治力量必须提供简单方案，解决民众在现任政府过去两年处理新冠疫情下所遭受的苦难和压力。

选民希望得到共鸣，也希望民选代表能为他们斗争。在当下，很明显，人民已不太关心过去的改革课题。对大多数人而言，生计、孩子教育和稳定的收入，比改革更重要。

这股潜在的势力必须向人民展示，这个新联盟是作为一个真正的反对派，认真地与当下政府抗衡。他们没有如已瓦解的希盟政府背负著的包袱，而希盟可能会在来届大选中为此付出代价。

当然，上述提议外，也有许多他们不能回避的问题。在马来西亚，新的第三股势力政治联盟诞生或发挥影响前，本文将检视当下首要也是最重要的问题。

年轻人选票

新联盟能激发年轻人并让他们出来投票吗？

年轻人似乎非常关心未来，但他们几乎对现有政治体制没有信心。因此，关键在于如何突破和激发年轻人出来投票。这说起来容易做起来难。

正如柔佛州选选民数据所表明，年轻选民可能深受“躺平”态度所影响，MUDA似乎无法改变这种态度，原因有很多，包括一些不是党所能控制的。因此，政府和马来语系的电子和印刷媒体，在很大程度上都忽视或忽略了MUDA以及年轻选民能对国家政治带来的变革潜力。

能否改变这现象将视乎MUDA的年轻领导人。

不久前，其中一个备受关注的政治事件就是，麻坡国会议员赛沙迪在面对其在土团党时，不当挪用政党资金提控后，能够在短短时间内，通过众筹筹获保释金和律师费。

如赛沙迪在面书宣布众筹活动告一段落时所指，其在24小时内共获得9836名捐助者，捐出总计71万5573.77令吉，这比吉隆坡地庭设定保释金还要多两倍。

可是，在大选时，1万名捐助者确实不是一个大数字。然而，从社会人口结构来分析这些反馈者，MUDA具有潜力，动员青年选民以支持更具理想主义和更少妥协的年轻一代领袖，取代当下那一些充满腐败气息、种族主义和极端主义，并荼毒了我国政治和社会经济环境的政客。

所以，首先要问的是：MUDA能成为第三势力联盟的凝合剂吗？

林德宜《MUDA和第三势力》原文：MUDA and A Third Force Opposition Coalition
Malaysia has always had a two party system of coalitions ever since 1957. Will GE 15 see the emergence of a new phenomenon in national politics - a third coalition of relatively new and what some would consider mosquito parties?

Warisan president Shafie Apdal recently said his party was willing to work with any political coalition that secures the people’s mandate. The leaders of MUDA, and Gerak Independent have made similar statements. The Socialist Party of Malaysia (PSM) which has the longest lived and developed program of policy alternatives relating to the nation’s socio-economic problems has always cooperated with parties taking on the ruling coalition. 

With an electorally shaky PKR,  it makes sense for Warisan, MUDA, Gerak Independent, and PSM to combine forces in some sort of electoral cooperation, or even coalition for the upcoming general election.  This new grouping has a number of strengths which can appeal to voters.  

For example, Warisan and MUDA are cooperating in Sabah and the Peninsula, where MUDA can focus on garnering the youth vote. PSM has a history of struggle on behalf of the underclass and marginalized communities. Gerak Independent, which has announced its intention to put up a small number of candidates may appeal to the urban middle class fed up with both the ruling and opposition coalitions.

Can New Faces in GE15 Make a Difference 

The grouping also has a small group of political celebrities. Shafie Apdal, former Chief Minister of Sabah; lawyer and social activist Siti Kasim;  former minister and one of the people behind the UNDI18 movement Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman,  former Sungei Siput MP Dr Michael Jeyakumar and Junz Wong, former state minister in Sabah are among those who can lead the Third Force electoral campaign. 

This multi-racial younger leadership can definitely provide the electorate disillusioned with the nation’s older generation of failed leaders with the opportunity to break free from the previous electoral mindset.   

Can the new coalition and its leaders bring new thinking and drive to break Malaysia free from its crony ridden, corruption, class, race and religious chains as well as bring back some of the old magic and excitement from the old ‘Reformasi’ days. 

For a start the new grouping should organize symbolic mass ceramahs around the country to drum up national support and get voter attention.  Projecting itself as a multi-racial, inclusive, youth orientated coalition, that will look after the wellbeing of the Rakyat, the grouping can provide young and old voters alike, with a new sense of optimism and hope that meaningful reform can take place through the ballot box that can bring real change to them and better their daily lives.  

The new grouping must focus upon the young and marginalised. They must offer simple solutions to their pain and stresses the Rakyat are suffering at the hands of the current government, with the handling of the MCOs over the last two years. 

The voters want empathy and elected representatives willing and able to fight for them. At this point of time, it is clear that the Rakyat is less concerned about past reform issues. Putting meals on the table, sending children to school, and having a stable income are much more important to most of them. 

The potential coalition must offer themselves to the Rakyat as a grouping that can seriously stand up to the government of the day as a real opposition. They don’t have the baggage of the Pakatan Harapan government debacle, which Pakatan may pay for in the general election.

However, the above proposal has a number of questions. This commentary will consider for now the first and possibly most important question before any new third force political coalition in Malaysia can happen or leave its mark.

Can the grouping really inspire the young and get them out to vote?

It appears the young are very concerned about the future, but they have virtually no trust in the political establishment. The key here will be to break through and motivate the youth to come out and vote. This is much easier said than done.  As the demographics of the Johor state election voters indicated,  young voters may be afflicted by a “tidak apa” attitude which  MUDA does not seem able to change for a variety of reasons including some which are not of the party’s own making. Thus the Malay and government  electronic and print media have largely ignored or dismissed Muda as well as the potential of young voters to bring about disruptive change to the nation’s politics. 

Much will rest on Muda’s young leaders to change this. 

One of the biggest political stories from not long ago was Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman’s ability to rally the masses through a crowdfunding campaign to help pay for his legal cost  on his  alleged crime of misappropriation of RM1.12 million when he was a Bersatu MP

As disclosed in his subsequent Facebook post announcing the end of the campaign, 9,836 donors provided a total of RM715,573.77 within 24 hours or more than double the bail amount set by the Kuala Lumpur sessions court.

But 10,000 donors is really not a big number when it comes to election time. However a breakdown of socio-demographic characteristics of the feedback points to the potential of Muda to mobilise the youth constituency in support of a more idealistic and less compromised younger generation to replace the present generation of corrupt, racist and extremist politicians perceived as responsible for poisoning Malaysia’s politics and socio-economy.

So, for a start: can Muda be the gel that can make the Third Force Coalition come about?