Terence Fernandez：希盟焦躁不安的一年

在英国著名作家乔治奥威尔的经典小说《动物农场》里，受压迫的农场动物团结起来，推翻了忽视和虐待他们的人类主人。领导叛乱的是三头猪。这些动物获得自由后，便选了其中一只猪为它们的领袖。接著，农场蓬勃发展，随著岁月的流逝，猪开始明争暗斗，权力斗争再起。

结果，其中一只猪被驱逐，另一只则成为领袖。后来，这些猪与其他人类结成了新的联盟，令农场其他动物感到沮丧。旧的压迫规则重新设定，猪甚至开始穿著打扮成人类并直立行走。最后，农场其他动物都无法分辩出猪与人。奥威尔这部经典讽刺小说，反映他当年反对英格兰与斯大林主义的苏联建立联盟，以对抗纳粹德国。

虽然我不会把执政一年之久的希盟政府等同于农场动物，但过去12个月这些政党和领导人的行为，肯定会让人想起这一讽刺作品的摘录。

从恢复在竞选期间被称为“不必要”大型发展项目开始；以不同的名义延续过去称之为不良的政策；任命面对著腐败指控的个人担任高职；把国家经济健康的关键信息列为“官方机密”；媒体管制；与曾被视为仇敌者重新结盟──这些问题让我们纳闷，自2018年5月9日以来，我们是否是进一步退两步。

民众可能已对希盟的改革失去耐心，但与此同时，很多人是很现实的，也了解到由一个基本缺乏经验，混杂不同的人来管理这个国家，是艰钜任务。然而，“不能在一年内改变61年”的口头禅，不应滥用成为辜负人们期望的借口。

自2008年分化式的大选以来，纠正备受质疑的政策，修补腐败体系和改善种族关系，将是一个漫长而痛苦的过程。然而，这个政府及其成员党似乎被自己的不安全感分散注意力，而不是在落实“希望宣言”方向迈进。

解决经济问题和加强国家财政健康应该是希盟议程上的首要问题。它开始时是走在正确轨道的，专注于审查一些被视为不必要或被抬高价格，以致富国阵领导层某派系的发展项目。

设立耆老理事会是否是正确的管道，仍然具有争议，尤其是其领导人敦达因手上的权力，不会比内阁部长小。耆老理事会是首相和内阁架构外的非正式组织结构。但就是这一个内阁，它在成立初期决定批准的国际公约，引爆了马来民族主义。

虽然签署《消除一切形式种族歧视国际公约》和《罗马规约》，有助于提高我国在全球社会的地位，但这不是当下必需做的。

从战略上讲，这些举措目前是不必要的，特别是当希盟还无法获得马来人的支持时。这只会让马来人感到不安和焦虑，并且让巫统和伊党利用此对马来社会进行煽动，迫使希盟对政策U转，让人感觉希盟反复无常，并在施政上举棋不定。

与两州苏丹摩擦

希盟政府与两州苏丹的公开摩擦──柔佛和吉兰丹，尤其当后者还是国家元首时，更引发民众的议论，也加强了马来人和宪政君主制受到威胁的论述。

到了希盟执政第二季度时，内部政治课题取代了经济问题，不管是真实或猜想的，在经济事务部长阿兹敏和马哈迪所宣布继任者安华之间的权位之争开始浮现。安华是下任首相仍然是官方的论述。

但是，这论述在土团党日益壮大下，将如何演变有待观察。尤其当马哈迪的党与希盟一起上台时，只有13个议席。然而今天，土团党成功进入沙巴，并在巫统议员跳槽下，拥有了26个议席。

据数位土团党领导人说法，另有30名巫统议员准备过档。他们不仅会让土团党成为希盟中最大的政党，而且还会带来庞大的资源。如果这事成真，那马哈迪之后的继承人计划将充满变数。

这也是希盟最大的败笔。因此，做为负责任政府，希盟应给予人民和投资者保障，一旦马哈迪退位后，权力的转移可平稳过渡。

如果安华确实是马哈迪的接班人，如今是他参与内阁决策过程的时候了。这将确保内阁决策和政策的实施一致。但在官方机密法令下，安华是无法参阅内阁文件。他与马哈迪每周的会面，的确塑造一个良好政治观感，但无人知道会面上他所知的有多少。

也许在管理国家的第二年，将会有一些明确的继任计划让我们放心。与此同时，希盟应该回归其主要优先事项，重振经济，提高工资和创造投资。这将有助于安抚仍在努力维持生计的愤怒马来青年，这也是“我的老板”有巨大吸引力原因。不然，希盟就只能一直责怪纳吉和一马公司。

《希盟焦躁不安的一年》（Pakatan’s year of distractions）原文：

IN George Orwell’s classic Animal Farm, oppressed farm animals bandied together to overthrow their human masters who had neglected and ill-treated them.

Leading the rebellion were three pigs.

The animals were successful in gaining their independence and made one of the pigs their leader.

The farm thrived, however, as years passed, the pigs started conniving against one another and a power struggle ensured.

The result was one pig banished and another retaining leadership. Later on, the pigs had forged new alliances with other humans, much to the dismay of the other farm animals. Old rules of oppression were re-instated and the pigs even started dressing as humans and walking upright.

In the end the other farm animals could not tell the pigs from the humans.

Orwell’s classic satire was written in part to illustrate his opposition to England building an alliance with Stalinist Russia to fight Nazi Germany.

While I will never equate the make-up of the year-old Pakatan Harapan (PH) Government to farm animals, the conduct of the parties and leaders these last 12 months certainly bring to mind excerpts from this definitive piece of satire.

From the reinstatement of mega projects that during the election campaign were billed as “unnecessary”; the continuation of once-billed bad policies under a different name; to the appointment of individuals who were facing corruption charges into high office; the classifying of crucial information of the nation’s economic health under the Official Secrets Act; media blackouts; and renewing alliances with a once sworn enemy – these issues make us wonder if we had taken one step forward and two steps back since May 9, 2018.

The Malaysian public may be impatient for change but at the same time many are realistic with the daunting task of running a country by a largely inexperienced motley crew of strange bedfellows.

The mantra “you cannot undo 61 years in one year” however, is an overused excuse of not living up to the people’s expectations.

Remedying questionable policies, addressing corrupt systems and improving race relations after divisive general elections since 2008, will be a long and painful process.

However, this government and its member parties seem to be distracted by their own insecurities instead of forging ahead in implementing the “manifesto of hope”.

Addressing the economy and strengthening the nation’s fiscal health should be foremost on its agenda. It started off on the right track by focusing on reviewing some mega projects viewed as either unnecessary or inflated to enrich certain factions within the Barisan Nasional leadership and the party war chest.

Whether the formation of the politburo called the Council of Eminent Persons (CEP) was the conduit for it remains a debate, especially with its leader Tun Daim Zainuddin wielding power, if not more influence over cabinet ministers.
The CEP is the dotted line in the organisational chart between the Prime Minister and his Cabinet.

But this is a Cabinet which in its infancy decided to ratify international conventions which were bound to be trigger points for the Malay nationalistic movement.

While being signatories to the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD) and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court would be a great achievement for our standing in the global community, it is not something that needs to be done now.

Strategically, these initiatives were unnecessary at this time, especially when Malay support still eludes PH. They only achieved discomfort and insecurity and played into the hands of UMNO and PAS whose fear-mongering succeeded in PH back-tracking on its plan and showed itself up as a flip-flop government afraid of its own shadow.

The public run-ins with two Sultans – Johor and Kelantan when the latter was the Yang Di Pertuan Agong was a public spat that strengthen the narrative of Malays and the Constitutional Monarchy being threatened by the current government.

By the second quarter of the PH administration, the economy started to take a back seat to internal politics, where a real or imagined tussle for number two started to play out between Economic Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s announced (not necessarily anointed) successor Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

That Anwar will take over remains the official narrative. But how will this narrative play into a largely expanded Bersatu remains to be seen. Mahathir’s party came into power along with PH with just 13 parliamentary seats. Yet today have managed to penetrate Sabah and boasts 26 parliamentary seats with crossovers from UMNO.

According to several Bersatu leaders, another 30 UMNO MPs are ready to jump ship. They bring not just numbers to make Bersatu the largest coalition partner in PH, but also much needed funds for Bersatu’s war chest.
If such political manouverings are true, then it throws the succession plan wide open.

Which is why in spite of everything it has achieved, a stable succession plan counts as PH’s biggest failures.
A responsible government formed by a fragile coalition lead by a 94-year-old would ensure the people and investors that there would be a smooth transition of power in the event the prime minister’s seat falls vacant.

Datuk Seri Dr. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail had shown her mettle in keeping the opposition united and the “reformasi” movement alive and relevant for 20 years. However, her performance as deputy prime minister has been fraught with criticisms of inexperience and faux pax.

Confidence levels are not high for her to step in as Acting Prime Minister.

If Anwar is indeed Dr. Mahathir’s successor as both men had repeatedly said since last year – as well as in 1998 before the latter sacked the former as his then deputy – then it is about time he be part of the decision-making process in Cabinet. This will ensure consistency in the implementation of policies and Cabinet decisions.
The Official Secrets Act do not grant Anwar access to Cabinet papers. The weekly meetings he has with Dr. Mahathir makes good optics but what exactly he is being briefed on is anyone’s guess.

Perhaps in its second year in running the country, there will be some clarity on a succession plan to put us at ease. At the same time PH should return to its main priority – fixing the economy, raising wages and being creative in bringing in investments.

This will help appease the angry young Malay youth who are still struggling to eke out a living, which makes Bossku such a huge draw.

After all, one can only blame Najib and 1MDB for so long.